Comments on: Jose Lopez Explained

By: the raindrops

the raindrops — Sat, 28 Aug 2004 17:35:10 +0000

This and That
Jeremy has a nice rundown of all the happenings in Mets world today, so head on over and get your read on. Mike at The Metropolitans also has some nice coverage, though I should warn you he’s posted some not…

By: Justin

Justin — Sat, 28 Aug 2004 06:08:05 +0000

Dave –

You bring up the (ridiculously high) PCL avg hitter line to invalidate Lopez’s raw numbers, but wouldn’t you say this is more than cancelled out by the park effects that Cheney Stadium has had on him?

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/minors/stats/2004/pcltacomahmrd/

.246 with 11 XBH in 114 AB at home
.329 with 21 XBH in 161 AB on the road

Admittedly, Safeco Field probably will not be any easier than Cheney Stadium; but on the issue of Lopez’s raw numbers, I’d have to disagree with you and suggest they’re legit.

By: Cindy

Cindy — Fri, 27 Aug 2004 22:38:54 +0000

And, there are questions here that go beyond simply “what makes the Mariners better in 2005″ and “do we want Lopez’ age-27 year or his age-21 year.”
Bavasi’s idea, right or wrong, is to do what’s best for Lopez’ development. The Mariners believe, right or wrong, that Lopez has nothing more to learn in AAA. Many people agree with them.
Bavasi is trying to sacrifice something in the year 2010 or 2011, in order to bring Lopez up to speed quicker and make his move on the pennant, ASAP. That deserves its own credit.
That’s why the M’s are forever passing on Miguel Tejada and Ivan Rodriguez — they’re always telling us that they’re ‘protecting’ the team’s interests for six years down the line.
The idea of tring to get their tails in gear NOW, get Lopez up to speed ASAP and to try to win ASAP, is refreshing.

By: Dave S.

Dave S. — Fri, 27 Aug 2004 22:17:36 +0000

Which, of course, isn’t to say that there isn’t merit to the idea of taking a flier on a stopgap, for the league minimum. But there’s also a reason to believe that Lopez can be decent next year to hold the position.

By: Dave S.

Dave S. — Fri, 27 Aug 2004 22:08:22 +0000

The raw numbers for Lopez are impressive enough… When you consider that they came from a 20 year old shortstop playing half of his games in Cheney, then you see why we’re so high on him. I think there’s an excellent argument that he has nothing left to prove in AAA, and that holding him down now would only hinder his development.

By: Cindy

Cindy — Fri, 27 Aug 2004 21:51:20 +0000

It is not Lopez’ RAW numbers that we are getting caught up in.
Future Davenport Translations take -translated- numbers, park-adjusted numbers that is, and plot them against a huge database of similar players.
FDT’s were bananas for Jose Lopez in 2004. They were like .300/.375/.570 MLE at Lopez’ peak.
It isn’t Lopez’ raw numbers that are the point. It is his -Cheney- numbers: compare them to Jeremy Reed’s.

By: Cindy

Cindy — Fri, 27 Aug 2004 21:45:38 +0000

“Get your pitch,” draw as many BB’s as you can, is a wonderful approach, yes. But let’s not pound every peg in the minors and majors into our “must be selective at the plate” mold.
Vlad Guerrero, Pudge Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez, Miguel Tejada, and a ton of other Latin bangers hack away. As the article points out — it’s because they can.
Ichiro is the latest current example of an “attacking” hitter who was messed up by the Paul Molitor “be more selective” dogma.
The mere fact that Jose Lopez can hit anything that the catcher can catch, and that Lopez takes the battle to the pitcher, that doesn’t make him high risk. He’s a classic Latin free swinger.
Lopez is 20, he’s ripped up the PCL in a real tough pitcher’s park, and his Rainiers coaches are telling us he’s all done with AAA.
Let’s know when we have a monster prospect here, hmmmmm?

By: Pete

Pete — Fri, 27 Aug 2004 21:38:24 +0000

I agree Dave S.

Lopez breathes, therefore he is a huge upgrade from Aurilia, and a far better option than our other choices. The order you listed as your priorites is also right on target.

I’d rank them:

#1 3B
#2a 1B/DH
#2b CF
#3 Front line starting pitcher
#4 Late-inning reliever
#5 More relief
#6 Left-handed pinch hitter
#7 Shortstop

By: Dave

Dave — Fri, 27 Aug 2004 21:38:10 +0000

Rushing a prospect because your orgnaization is full of crap at a position is just lack of effort. The main tenet of baseball that I wish the M’s would grasp is that of freely available talent. Jose Lopez isn’t likely to help the Mariners next year anymore so than the scores of non-roster invitees that could be had for nothing during the offseason.

If the M’s can’t find a permanent solution at short, they’d be better off just picking up Gookie Dawkins, Denny Hocking, or Felix Escalona for nothing. None of these guys are going to help the team win anything, but they’ll be replacement level for the major league minimum while allowing Lopez to continue to work in Triple-A. If he makes The Leap sometime next summer, no harm done to bring him up and have him take the job.

I’d still love to see the M’s try to buy low on Felipe Lopez, whom the Reds have almost given up on. Taking high-reward flyers like that for peanuts is one of the advantages a non-contending team has.

The priority for Lopez needs to be development, not patching a hole for 2005 that can be patched just as easily by scouring the waiver wire and doing a bit of homework.

By: Dave S.

Dave S. — Fri, 27 Aug 2004 21:20:55 +0000

Dave, I’m just curious…

Who do you propose we put at shortstop next season?

There is a very good argument to be made that Lopez should be in the minors, but it’s cancelled out by the fact that we have finite resources to spend, a thrifty front office, and more pressing needs at other positions. Sure, we could try to sign a Renteria, or, even less likely, Garciaparra, but in the end we’d still have a gaping hole at third base and 1B/DH, with a declining bat in leftfield. In other words, are we going to sacrifice production at one of three premium offensive positions so that we can overpay for a shortstop? The tradeoff isn’t nearly worth it, in this case. I’ll take Jose Lopez over Willie Bloomquist, Omar Vizquel, Jolbert Cabrera, or any one of the number of scrubs the M’s would attempt to sign.

Shortstop is low on the priority list, Dave. I’d put it in 5th, maybe even 6th place, behind third base, first base, outfield, starting pitching, and possibly an ace reliever.