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	<title>Comments on: Lowering expectations</title>
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	<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/10/07/lowering-expectations/</link>
	<description>Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion</description>
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		<title>By: johnb</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/10/07/lowering-expectations/comment-page-1/#comment-4335</link>
		<dc:creator>johnb</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Oct 2004 21:54:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=1970#comment-4335</guid>
		<description>I was hoping the Mariners would budget 105 million toward salaries in 2005. It makes sense to do this for year to shore up the team. The following year around 20 million will come off with Moyer, Boone, and sadly Cirillo not on the payroll anymore.

The M&#039;s management needs to figure out whether they can live with declining attendance over the next few years, or should they gamble and beef things up this year to avoid the plunge?

It sounds like an easy choice to me, but the M&#039;s management team doesn&#039;t seem to think the same way I do.

It looks like the first thing they are going to do is try to trade, Boone, Shiggy, and Spiezio. If Bavasi can do that I will be pretty impressed. That would clear some salary.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was hoping the Mariners would budget 105 million toward salaries in 2005. It makes sense to do this for year to shore up the team. The following year around 20 million will come off with Moyer, Boone, and sadly Cirillo not on the payroll anymore.</p>
<p>The M&#8217;s management needs to figure out whether they can live with declining attendance over the next few years, or should they gamble and beef things up this year to avoid the plunge?</p>
<p>It sounds like an easy choice to me, but the M&#8217;s management team doesn&#8217;t seem to think the same way I do.</p>
<p>It looks like the first thing they are going to do is try to trade, Boone, Shiggy, and Spiezio. If Bavasi can do that I will be pretty impressed. That would clear some salary.</p>
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		<title>By: Jon Wells</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/10/07/lowering-expectations/comment-page-1/#comment-4270</link>
		<dc:creator>Jon Wells</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Oct 2004 10:06:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=1970#comment-4270</guid>
		<description>Those 3 men ARE regularly in the same room together -- it&#039;s called
the press box before and during games :-)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Those 3 men ARE regularly in the same room together &#8212; it&#8217;s called<br />
the press box before and during games <img src='http://www.ussmariner.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: ChrisK</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/10/07/lowering-expectations/comment-page-1/#comment-4260</link>
		<dc:creator>ChrisK</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Oct 2004 08:12:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=1970#comment-4260</guid>
		<description>Of these 3 wise men, whose words carry the least credibility in your eyes:

a. Howard Lincoln
b. Bob Finnigan
c. Rick Rizzs

This is truly a tough one, but I&#039;ll say Lincoln, only because Finny and Rizza pretty much take all their cues from Howard anyway. Can you imagine the magnitude of BS that would be generated if these 3 ever got in a room together?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Of these 3 wise men, whose words carry the least credibility in your eyes:</p>
<p>a. Howard Lincoln<br />
b. Bob Finnigan<br />
c. Rick Rizzs</p>
<p>This is truly a tough one, but I&#8217;ll say Lincoln, only because Finny and Rizza pretty much take all their cues from Howard anyway. Can you imagine the magnitude of BS that would be generated if these 3 ever got in a room together?</p>
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		<title>By: Sane</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/10/07/lowering-expectations/comment-page-1/#comment-4249</link>
		<dc:creator>Sane</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Oct 2004 06:54:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=1970#comment-4249</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;â€œi wrote what i think is correct so thats all i can tell you. pls dont get into a debate. ichi is 12.5, moyter 8, boone is 9.25, guard is 6, cirilloetc is 5.5. i counted cabrer in at 1.5 figure from there.â€&lt;/i&gt;

Was that seriously his response word-for-word? I hope the editors for the Times who have to proof read his articles get paid well.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>â€œi wrote what i think is correct so thats all i can tell you. pls dont get into a debate. ichi is 12.5, moyter 8, boone is 9.25, guard is 6, cirilloetc is 5.5. i counted cabrer in at 1.5 figure from there.â€</i></p>
<p>Was that seriously his response word-for-word? I hope the editors for the Times who have to proof read his articles get paid well.</p>
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		<title>By: Jerry</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/10/07/lowering-expectations/comment-page-1/#comment-4232</link>
		<dc:creator>Jerry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Oct 2004 04:22:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=1970#comment-4232</guid>
		<description>I emailed Bob Finnigan about the payroll figures he used, and he responded.  This is seriously what he said.  I am not making this up:

&quot;i wrote what i think is correct so thats all i can tell you. pls dont get into a debate. ichi is 12.5, moyter 8, boone is 9.25, guard is 6, cirilloetc is 5.5. i counted cabrer in at 1.5 figure from there.&quot;

This guy writes for a newpaper...?!?  

Anyhow, his numbers aren&#039;t correct.  

Guardado has a 4.5 million player option and a 6 million team option.  He might have a clause for being the closer.  However, the base salary is 4.5 million. 

Ichiro will get 11 million next year.  His incentives for plate appearances max out at 250K/year until 2007.  

Moyer has a 1.5 million base salary.  He got a 1.5 million bonus for games started.  He has a max incentive of 4.5 million for innings pitched, getting the full amount at 210.  He only pitched 202 innings, so he won&#039;t get the full amount.  I have talked with other people on this blog about his incentives, and it is possible that he will get part of this 4.5 million bonus.  However, his salary will be less than 7.5 million regardless (somewhere between 3 and 7.5).

Boone will get 9 million.  

I have a feeling that Finnigan is confused about other salaries, but his numbers are at least 5 million off from the data he sent me in his garbled email.  So it is not as bleak as it might look from that article.  

These are the numbers I have: 
Ichiro $11 million            
Bret Boone $9 million        
Eddie Guardado $4.5 million        
Joel Pineiro $4.5 million        
Raul Ibanez $3.75 million        
Randy Winn $3.75 million       
S. Hasegawa $2.95 million      
Scott Spiezio $3.1 million        
Ryan Franklin $2.5 million        
Jamie Moyer $3 million + possible incentives         
Cirillo/Wiki/Jarvis $7 million

Grand total: $55.05 million

That leaves 33 million free if they go to 88 million total payroll, and 37 if they go up to 92 million.  Not too shabby.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I emailed Bob Finnigan about the payroll figures he used, and he responded.  This is seriously what he said.  I am not making this up:</p>
<p>&#8220;i wrote what i think is correct so thats all i can tell you. pls dont get into a debate. ichi is 12.5, moyter 8, boone is 9.25, guard is 6, cirilloetc is 5.5. i counted cabrer in at 1.5 figure from there.&#8221;</p>
<p>This guy writes for a newpaper&#8230;?!?  </p>
<p>Anyhow, his numbers aren&#8217;t correct.  </p>
<p>Guardado has a 4.5 million player option and a 6 million team option.  He might have a clause for being the closer.  However, the base salary is 4.5 million. </p>
<p>Ichiro will get 11 million next year.  His incentives for plate appearances max out at 250K/year until 2007.  </p>
<p>Moyer has a 1.5 million base salary.  He got a 1.5 million bonus for games started.  He has a max incentive of 4.5 million for innings pitched, getting the full amount at 210.  He only pitched 202 innings, so he won&#8217;t get the full amount.  I have talked with other people on this blog about his incentives, and it is possible that he will get part of this 4.5 million bonus.  However, his salary will be less than 7.5 million regardless (somewhere between 3 and 7.5).</p>
<p>Boone will get 9 million.  </p>
<p>I have a feeling that Finnigan is confused about other salaries, but his numbers are at least 5 million off from the data he sent me in his garbled email.  So it is not as bleak as it might look from that article.  </p>
<p>These are the numbers I have:<br />
Ichiro $11 million<br />
Bret Boone $9 million<br />
Eddie Guardado $4.5 million<br />
Joel Pineiro $4.5 million<br />
Raul Ibanez $3.75 million<br />
Randy Winn $3.75 million<br />
S. Hasegawa $2.95 million<br />
Scott Spiezio $3.1 million<br />
Ryan Franklin $2.5 million<br />
Jamie Moyer $3 million + possible incentives<br />
Cirillo/Wiki/Jarvis $7 million</p>
<p>Grand total: $55.05 million</p>
<p>That leaves 33 million free if they go to 88 million total payroll, and 37 if they go up to 92 million.  Not too shabby.</p>
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		<title>By: ChrisK</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/10/07/lowering-expectations/comment-page-1/#comment-4223</link>
		<dc:creator>ChrisK</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Oct 2004 02:21:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=1970#comment-4223</guid>
		<description>The reason the Mariners don&#039;t sign impact players is that they apply a different &quot;5-tool&quot; evaluation system than that of any other MLB franchise. 

Most teams view the 5 tools as:
1. Hitting for average
2. Hitting for power
3. Running
4. Fielding 
5. Throwing 

In contrast, the M&#039;s 5-tool system is based on the following skills:
1. Ability to be born in WA state or have PNW ties
2. Ability to have been an ex-Mariner
3. Speed (to sign contracts of 3 years or less)
4. Being a splendid human being
5. Ability to be lovable in at least one of their commercials

With this sophisticed eval system, it&#039;s not wonder they value the likes of Vizquel, Bloomquist, Villone, Ibanez, etc. Take Omar Vizquel. Nice player on the surface, but upon closer examination - he&#039;s an ex-Mariner, lives on the Eastside, had a year left on his contract, and seems like a nice, lovable guy. Hey, that&#039;s a 5-tool player baby! Willie Bloomquist...4-tool player!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The reason the Mariners don&#8217;t sign impact players is that they apply a different &#8220;5-tool&#8221; evaluation system than that of any other MLB franchise. </p>
<p>Most teams view the 5 tools as:<br />
1. Hitting for average<br />
2. Hitting for power<br />
3. Running<br />
4. Fielding<br />
5. Throwing </p>
<p>In contrast, the M&#8217;s 5-tool system is based on the following skills:<br />
1. Ability to be born in WA state or have PNW ties<br />
2. Ability to have been an ex-Mariner<br />
3. Speed (to sign contracts of 3 years or less)<br />
4. Being a splendid human being<br />
5. Ability to be lovable in at least one of their commercials</p>
<p>With this sophisticed eval system, it&#8217;s not wonder they value the likes of Vizquel, Bloomquist, Villone, Ibanez, etc. Take Omar Vizquel. Nice player on the surface, but upon closer examination &#8211; he&#8217;s an ex-Mariner, lives on the Eastside, had a year left on his contract, and seems like a nice, lovable guy. Hey, that&#8217;s a 5-tool player baby! Willie Bloomquist&#8230;4-tool player!</p>
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		<title>By: Steve</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/10/07/lowering-expectations/comment-page-1/#comment-4217</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Oct 2004 01:42:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=1970#comment-4217</guid>
		<description>Moyer&#039;s a 10-5 guy, so he couldn&#039;t have been (and still can&#039;t be) traded without his permission.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Moyer&#8217;s a 10-5 guy, so he couldn&#8217;t have been (and still can&#8217;t be) traded without his permission.</p>
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		<title>By: The REAL Trent</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/10/07/lowering-expectations/comment-page-1/#comment-4216</link>
		<dc:creator>The REAL Trent</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Oct 2004 01:26:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=1970#comment-4216</guid>
		<description>Moyer: My understanding is that he did not want to be traded under any circumstances.  Otherwise I believe he would have been moved.  The Mariners might of said he wasn&#039;t going anywhere, but I believe that was after he said he WOULDN&#039;T go anywhere.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Moyer: My understanding is that he did not want to be traded under any circumstances.  Otherwise I believe he would have been moved.  The Mariners might of said he wasn&#8217;t going anywhere, but I believe that was after he said he WOULDN&#8217;T go anywhere.</p>
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		<title>By: Jon</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/10/07/lowering-expectations/comment-page-1/#comment-4215</link>
		<dc:creator>Jon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Oct 2004 00:49:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=1970#comment-4215</guid>
		<description>Here&#039;s another way of looking at this depressing news: If all we have to spend is $20M+/-, what a horrible core team we have for $70M+/-. Our returning players (who suck as a group) cost more than some pretty good complete teams. And if we really don&#039;t have much to spend to make a real impact, then we have become the Mets/Orioles of the west (a perennial underachiever). Yikes.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here&#8217;s another way of looking at this depressing news: If all we have to spend is $20M+/-, what a horrible core team we have for $70M+/-. Our returning players (who suck as a group) cost more than some pretty good complete teams. And if we really don&#8217;t have much to spend to make a real impact, then we have become the Mets/Orioles of the west (a perennial underachiever). Yikes.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave in Palo Alto</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/10/07/lowering-expectations/comment-page-1/#comment-4214</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave in Palo Alto</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Oct 2004 00:32:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=1970#comment-4214</guid>
		<description>Pat, you&#039;re right, although it would have nicer to get him in &#039;97 when he landed with the Mets, nary an M&#039;s bid as far as I know.

Maybe I should also note the HOF FA the M&#039;s landed -- Ricky Henderson.

Or maybe not.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pat, you&#8217;re right, although it would have nicer to get him in &#8217;97 when he landed with the Mets, nary an M&#8217;s bid as far as I know.</p>
<p>Maybe I should also note the HOF FA the M&#8217;s landed &#8212; Ricky Henderson.</p>
<p>Or maybe not.</p>
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