#1. This advantage is very small. They rarely make first offers.

#2 – I don’t understand how a rejected offer would be a signal that they were serious.

#3 – Agreed. The PR value is good but fleeting. Very few fans even remember who the M’s offer contacts to.

#4 – Agreed. They don’t want to prolong things. This is why you make an offer that is close to market value and that signals you are serious.

#6. The M’s offer won’t be above market. Is there a consistent pattern of Bavasi making above market offers? Perhaps with the Angels.

1. If the Mariners bid becomes a floor from which bidding proceeds, the Mariners will have succeeded in driving up the price that another team pays for Beltran. That works to the Mariners advantage.

2. If the Mariners offer is turned down, they signal clearly to other players and agents that the Mariners are serious about free agent acquisition this year.

3. It plays well with the local fan base if the Mariners make a big time offer.

4. The Mariners have enough holes to fill that it’s not in their interest to drag things out. If they wait too long on Beltran, other players they are interested may sign with other teams. That greatly weaken the Mariners off season situation.

5. It may be good PR with Scott Boras – give Boras a strong opening bid for one of his players. As mercenary as Boras appears to be, it’s still critical to work relationships with his baseball execs. So he does operate in a quid pro quo world. The payback could come later in negotiations with Drew, for example.

6. If the Mariners offer is an above market offer – but one the Mariners are willing to pay – there is a possibility that Beltran will receive no offers better than the Mariners offer. In that case, Beltran and Boras may come back to the Mariners, asking if the Mariners are willing to repeat the orginal offer. In such a situation, the Mariners would have some negotiating leverage to get Beltran for a better deal than the original offer (and remember that the original offer would be one the Mariners were willing to pay.

With all of that being said, I think the biggest consideration that will drive the Mariners is the need to act decisively and quickly. The Mariners plans will be stymied if none of their primary targets are ready to act quickly.

Even if they have no real interest in signing Beltran, at least they would be upping the bidding for other teams. I think that the numbers that Dave posted are pretty much what Beltran SHOULD be worth. That is a lot of cash (average salary of 15.8 million). Really, the M’s would probably be better off going to Beltre and a starting pitcher, like Dave proposed. I would rather see them get some balls and sign three good players: Beltre, Clement, and a third hitter, perhaps JD Drew or Carlos Delgado. A lefty bat would really help the M’s in building a strong lineup. But if the M’s are going to follow Finnigan’s advice and be stingy, that is probably not going to happen.

I expect the Mariners to come out with a “take it or leave it” offer in the range of 6 years, $95 million and a 2005 salary of about $9 million. The Mariners would love to have Beltran and will give Boras an opportunity to set the market with a contract larger than what Vladimir Guerrero commanded last year, but they have little interest in getting involved in a prolonged negotiation. If Boras intends to keep Beltran on the market and create a bidding war, the Mariners will retract their offer and move on quickly. I don’t expect Boras to accept the Mariners terms, and I believe he’ll eventually sign with the Chicago Cubs for about the same money, perhaps a little bit more, than what the Mariners original offer will be.”

What does this say about the mole in the Safe that Dave presumably gets some of his info from? Does this reflect any insider info?

My question for those who have excerieance in employee acquisition and retention: Why start out the bidding? If you expect to lose by a few million and don’t want to engage in high level bidding, why start with an offer?

The Mariner’s have it wrong. The objective is to retain Beltran. The method is to beat the other bidders. Simply say to Boras: We will beat any offer can get the job done. Am I wrong?

. . . Strange as it may seem, folks will see what they want to at times. This doesn’t mean that anyone will take Spezio after his ’04 year, under any circumstances, of course. But I would have said Cirllo was untradeable under any circumstances, and not only was he traded (without any savings of $$ but that _was_ impossible), but the Ms even got one player, Dave Hansen, who actually could do a little bit of something useful. I wouldn’t mind Hansen coming back this offseason, either, I’ve got a sweet spot for professional hitters. Sometimes one can turn manure into mutton stew, Porterhouse, no, but mutton stew, yes.

I do agree with you overall, Dave, that discussing player acquisitions en blog it is better if we stay with real possibilities than wishtastic ejaculations or mere scenario spinning. I think most of Jerry’s posts are something other than in these latter two categories, more ‘reaches’ in my view than dreamcasting; you simply don’t agree with his points, which is your prerogative.

Not sure what you are referring to. You yourself said that Winn has trade value, so we both agree that he is not totally worthless. Hillenbrand, on the other hand, is completely useless. With the Boone/Vazquez trade, I was referring to two players who are basically bad contracts. It is just a matter of whether one player is ‘less worthless’ to another team. The Yankees are going to ditch Vazquez, and they have supposedly expressed interest Boone although they don’t want his contract. If the M’s were taking most of Vazquez’s contact off their hands, it might be something they are interested in. If they get a better deal, they get a better deal. I just don’t think that they are going to have a lot of good offers for a player with a contract like Vazquez’s. Just like the M’s aren’t going to get a lot of offers for a player with a contract like Boone’s.

Oh, and Mark: Hillenbrand is at least cheap. Sweeney has a horrendous contract. Given the money situation, I’d actually rather have Hillenbrand.