Anyhoo. Vizquel will be an aberration. If the Giants had waited they probably could have gotten him for less, but, meh, they probably wanted him from the get go. No one else was going to top their offer. I don’t see babyO doin’ so hot. He had one of those typical final flame out years last year. His 05 stats will be half as hot, 06 horrendous, 07 possibly released. Not that I don’t want him to have 3 more above average years. He is one of those hof-but-not SS’s that may go the way of Barry Larkin – forgotten in the wake of A-Rods, Jeters, Nomahs, and Tejadas – guys who have at best .75 times the glove, but at worst 1.25 times the bat.

But seriously, if Vizquel is setting the market, then lots of players are going to cost more than anyone is willing to pay. That’s when there ends up being a few gems at the end of the off-season. Good guys for cheap!

I wish I had time to study all the game theory that goes into contract negotiations and team needs. It’s mostly a transparent game, but a crafty GM could make it fun. And Bavasi….uhh, please suprise me Bavasi!

I _can’t_ figure Brian Sabean out. There is a method somewhere in this man, but I just haven’t been able to do a + b + c on the guy. Now, he’s working with significant budget constraints, yes. And he is clearly a true believer in the stars-and-scrubs approach; I’m not, but Sabean is the best example of that in baseball at the moment in my view. But to make this work, you’ve got to pick a few genuine stars, and back them with _low-paid_ scrubs.

Now, Sabean did acquire Jeff Kent, and got a bit bang. He did trade for Schmit at ten cents on the dollar, and had the sense to sign him. He did sign Robb Nen, when the guy was a force. He did pick up Rey Durham for very little, and has gotten value from the guy. Sabean did acquire Ponson for his run in ’03 when Sidney had some real value, and then had the sense NOT to sign him. Sabean has held onto Kirk Reuter, on of the underrated pitchers in the game, and gotten consistently decent results. Given his budgetary issues, the initial signings of Jose Cruz and Deivi Cruz both make a certain amount of sense, and if they didn’t lift the team they at least made a minimum contribution.

—On the other hand, there was the signing of Edgardo Alonzo to a multi-year which I thought was one of the stone-craziest wastes of money I’d seen in years; a much worse signing than anything the Mariners FO has pulled off in since Gillick arrived. Sabean _resigned_ Cruz for far more than he is possibly worth. Sabean traded to _acquire_ Pieznarsky, one of the most dislike players in the game, and the acquisiton bombed, the guy had zero value. And to do it, Brian traded Joe Nathan, gambling that Nen was coming back despite repeated setbacks with his arm. Instead, Nen’s career is over, and the Giants had neither player. Then this signing of Vizquel, which is beyond laughable. The guy’s knee couldn’t pass a physical last year. He had pathetic range for a SS for ’04. He’s 37. There is NO WAY he finishes a three-year, in my view, and I wouldn’t be surprised in anyway whatsoever if he never has an effective year again. This isn’t even a gamble; like with Alonzo, it’s purest wish-fulfillment.

I think Sabean has gotten bored with his present context of possibilities in SF to the point where his attention has simply checked out. It happens, even to really talented managers and GMs. But having said that Sabean’s decision-making these last two years has been extremely poor. Oh, Brian is fooling himself because the Giants ‘were in it until the last series,’ which is farcial since NO team in the NL west in any way deserved to be in postseason, and none could take control of the division in any way. I think that the ’05 Giants are going to do exactly what the ’04 Mariners did, and you can quote me. Giants fans should go into the season expectin 100 losses, because anything better than that with the team they have at this point is going to be a victory of a kind.

In theory, the only way Visquel would impact Beltre in a way as was suggested, would be if the impact went sequentially up the free agent ladder. For example, next week Corey Koskie signs a slightly inflated contract because of he’s a little more valuable than Visquel. Shortly there after Glaus signs an inflated contract because he’s a little more valuable than Koskie, then Rentaria signs an inflated contract because he’s more valued than Glaus, and ultimately, Beltre signs and inflated contract because he’s more valued than Rentaria.

However, if Rentaria signs tommorrow for a reasonable figure, say 4 years 28 million, then it throws a cap on the potential damage caused by the visquel signing. Suddenly, players like Glaus are looking at less than 28 million, Koskie less than that (probably much less), etc. With the closest echelon to Beltre and Delgado making less than 30 million, it preserves the notion that Delgado will probably go in the 30 millions range and Beltre in the 60 or 70 millions range.

I’m kind of surprised we made an offer so quickly on Beltre, for a while I thought we were going to lay low and try to steal Beltre away from out of nowhere in December with a terrific offer.

As I see it, the Mariners probably have two scenario’s, the “get Beltre” scenario and the “get Delgado” scenario. If we get Beltre, we’ll probably look for a “cheap” first baseman (likely Ibanez, maybe Sexson). Likewise, with Delgado, we’d be looking at a reasonable SS or 3B (likely Koskie, maybe Rentaria, *maybe* Glaus).

I happen to agree with you that the first option is better, at least in the long term. However the second option could arguably be better in the short term and wouldn’t involve a 6 or 7 year potential albatross type contract. While I think, if its possible, we should try to sign Beltre before looking anywhere else in the infield, its not completely insane to send Delgado an offer just to make sure he doesn’t go anywhere else.

I don’t view this offseason as a chance for the M’s to return to contention. I view it as a chance to add talent for the long haul, and if we lose out on overpaying for an injury prone first baseman, I will lose no sleep.

I can see that, but at what point does a virtue become a hinderance? I know that you don’t believe that one guy can make a team, so why hold out so long for one guy at the risk of the rest of the team…. You’ve gotta agree with me that there won’t be much left by the time Beltre signs… and then where does that leave us?…

A trade can change the whole picture, though, so that probably has to come first. If, e.g., they traded Boone for A Jones, they need a 2B and not a CF or 1B. If they trade Boone for C Jones, then they need a 2B and not a 3B.

Throw the need to understand recovery from injuries and/or the (7 letter) s-word into the process, and the GM has a tough job.