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	<title>Comments on: The Market</title>
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	<description>Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion</description>
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		<title>By: stan</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/11/17/the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-7802</link>
		<dc:creator>stan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Nov 2004 03:16:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2052#comment-7802</guid>
		<description>hans, in my opinion the giants need an rbi/power guy to hit behind bonds... barry will still get walked unless he shows that his bat has slowed, but the pitchers in the national league will know they will pay a higher price than in 04 because beltre has shown he can hit them.... i would imagine barry would get more pitches to hit with beltre behind him.... barry hitting 3rd, beltre 4th and jt snow 5th should be a productive group unless age catches up to barry and jt... if so, beltre is not going to carry the giants on his back... beltre in seattle in my mind is a completely different story... adrian will have to learn a whole new group of pitchers and he will be hitting in ballparks he does not know and in a home park that is tough on right handed hitters unless they drive the ball the opposite way...... he would not be the first to struggle making the adjustment of switching leagues.... if he does swing the bat well i don&#039;t think he will get much help from the players hitting behind him... ibanez is ok but he is not a big power threat.... maybe boone will have a power surge in 05 but i dont think you can count on it... bucky is an interesting power guy but let&#039;s face it he does not have a track record... with beltre in the lineup the power the mariners would have would all be from the right side in a park that favors lefty power...i just don&#039;t foresee adrian doing well in that scenario and i for one would not want to pay a 100 mil for a contract that might not produce and would probably be impossible to trade... lastly, i am impressed with the potential of jose lopez, but only as a third baseman... for me he does not have enough range to be a middle infielder... if you sign beltre in my opinion you may as well trade young jose.... it may well be that lopez will never make it; lots of guys with potential never produce... what i would like to see the mariners do is plug jose in at third and see if he can turn into a guy who can have a season like beltre just had... if lopez dooesn&#039;t turn into that type of player the mariners can look to other options... if beltre comes here on a high dollar, long term deal and struggles the options are not so pretty... i don&#039;t know if that is actually a half dozen reasons why the giants should sign beltre and the mariners should not, but anyway that is my thinking... i have been wrong about players and teams before and i am sure i will be wrong again.... if the mariners are itching to spend a 100 mil on a player i would prefer them to spend it on beltran, though i am not calling on them to do that either....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>hans, in my opinion the giants need an rbi/power guy to hit behind bonds&#8230; barry will still get walked unless he shows that his bat has slowed, but the pitchers in the national league will know they will pay a higher price than in 04 because beltre has shown he can hit them&#8230;. i would imagine barry would get more pitches to hit with beltre behind him&#8230;. barry hitting 3rd, beltre 4th and jt snow 5th should be a productive group unless age catches up to barry and jt&#8230; if so, beltre is not going to carry the giants on his back&#8230; beltre in seattle in my mind is a completely different story&#8230; adrian will have to learn a whole new group of pitchers and he will be hitting in ballparks he does not know and in a home park that is tough on right handed hitters unless they drive the ball the opposite way&#8230;&#8230; he would not be the first to struggle making the adjustment of switching leagues&#8230;. if he does swing the bat well i don&#8217;t think he will get much help from the players hitting behind him&#8230; ibanez is ok but he is not a big power threat&#8230;. maybe boone will have a power surge in 05 but i dont think you can count on it&#8230; bucky is an interesting power guy but let&#8217;s face it he does not have a track record&#8230; with beltre in the lineup the power the mariners would have would all be from the right side in a park that favors lefty power&#8230;i just don&#8217;t foresee adrian doing well in that scenario and i for one would not want to pay a 100 mil for a contract that might not produce and would probably be impossible to trade&#8230; lastly, i am impressed with the potential of jose lopez, but only as a third baseman&#8230; for me he does not have enough range to be a middle infielder&#8230; if you sign beltre in my opinion you may as well trade young jose&#8230;. it may well be that lopez will never make it; lots of guys with potential never produce&#8230; what i would like to see the mariners do is plug jose in at third and see if he can turn into a guy who can have a season like beltre just had&#8230; if lopez dooesn&#8217;t turn into that type of player the mariners can look to other options&#8230; if beltre comes here on a high dollar, long term deal and struggles the options are not so pretty&#8230; i don&#8217;t know if that is actually a half dozen reasons why the giants should sign beltre and the mariners should not, but anyway that is my thinking&#8230; i have been wrong about players and teams before and i am sure i will be wrong again&#8230;. if the mariners are itching to spend a 100 mil on a player i would prefer them to spend it on beltran, though i am not calling on them to do that either&#8230;.</p>
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		<title>By: hans</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/11/17/the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-7705</link>
		<dc:creator>hans</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Nov 2004 19:37:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2052#comment-7705</guid>
		<description>Stan,

I don&#039;t understand your point.  How does the fact that the Giants have a contract with Barry Bonds make Beltre a better acquisition for them than it does for us?  Using these two teams, I would argue the contrary.  Beltre is a better acquisition for the Mariners, because he would improve the Mariners more than he would improve the Giants.  The Mariners currently have a hole at 3rd base with only a slight to moderate chance of filling it to satisfaction from within the system.  The Giants, on the other hand, have one pretty good player locked up at third base for a while (Edgardo Alfonso) and have another young third baseman that shows potential in Pedro Feliz.

I&#039;m not saying that the Giants 3B situation is an ideal one... but if the Giants really want to improve their team, acqisitions in other positions have the potential to provide greater improvement for less cost (such as SS, CF, RF, 1B, Starting pitchers 2-5, relief pitcher).

Aw heck... what am I saying?  The Giants could stand an improvement at just about every position except left field.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Stan,</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t understand your point.  How does the fact that the Giants have a contract with Barry Bonds make Beltre a better acquisition for them than it does for us?  Using these two teams, I would argue the contrary.  Beltre is a better acquisition for the Mariners, because he would improve the Mariners more than he would improve the Giants.  The Mariners currently have a hole at 3rd base with only a slight to moderate chance of filling it to satisfaction from within the system.  The Giants, on the other hand, have one pretty good player locked up at third base for a while (Edgardo Alfonso) and have another young third baseman that shows potential in Pedro Feliz.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not saying that the Giants 3B situation is an ideal one&#8230; but if the Giants really want to improve their team, acqisitions in other positions have the potential to provide greater improvement for less cost (such as SS, CF, RF, 1B, Starting pitchers 2-5, relief pitcher).</p>
<p>Aw heck&#8230; what am I saying?  The Giants could stand an improvement at just about every position except left field.</p>
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		<title>By: Bela Txadux</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/11/17/the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-7689</link>
		<dc:creator>Bela Txadux</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Nov 2004 04:23:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2052#comment-7689</guid>
		<description>Note to the ancient one,

You are right regarding my juggling Manuels, I realized this as well later after I&#039;d posted, too.  I&#039;m not much more impressed with Bro&#039; Charlie than with Jerry, but it would be churlish of me at the least to blame the one for the other&#039;s mistakes.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Note to the ancient one,</p>
<p>You are right regarding my juggling Manuels, I realized this as well later after I&#8217;d posted, too.  I&#8217;m not much more impressed with Bro&#8217; Charlie than with Jerry, but it would be churlish of me at the least to blame the one for the other&#8217;s mistakes.</p>
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		<title>By: stan</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/11/17/the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-7683</link>
		<dc:creator>stan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Nov 2004 01:19:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2052#comment-7683</guid>
		<description>mfan and dmz, i hope you don&#039;t mind me adding my 2cents into your disccussion...it seems to me the right strategy for spending money on ballplayers can never be known...quite frankly if it could be known that would take all the enjoyment out of the game... that being said, i do think that a front office should have a strategy in building a ballclub that is dependent on at least a rational assessment of the parts of the puzzle that have already been assembled... for example, i have been against bring adrian beltre to the mariners, not because i think he is a bad player; quite the contrary, i think beltre has obvious talent.... however, if i was the gm of the giants i would be doing everything i could including bouncing checks to sign beltre... if i was a giant fan i would be against signing vizquel and the interest they supposedly have in finley because i think the giants should spend their money on a premium player to compliment bonds...   
i think i could give a half dozen reasons why the giants should sign beltre and a half dozen reasons why the mariners should avoid him... bottom line in my opinion the starting point for a gm in building a team is a realistic appraisal of what he already has on hand...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>mfan and dmz, i hope you don&#8217;t mind me adding my 2cents into your disccussion&#8230;it seems to me the right strategy for spending money on ballplayers can never be known&#8230;quite frankly if it could be known that would take all the enjoyment out of the game&#8230; that being said, i do think that a front office should have a strategy in building a ballclub that is dependent on at least a rational assessment of the parts of the puzzle that have already been assembled&#8230; for example, i have been against bring adrian beltre to the mariners, not because i think he is a bad player; quite the contrary, i think beltre has obvious talent&#8230;. however, if i was the gm of the giants i would be doing everything i could including bouncing checks to sign beltre&#8230; if i was a giant fan i would be against signing vizquel and the interest they supposedly have in finley because i think the giants should spend their money on a premium player to compliment bonds&#8230;<br />
i think i could give a half dozen reasons why the giants should sign beltre and a half dozen reasons why the mariners should avoid him&#8230; bottom line in my opinion the starting point for a gm in building a team is a realistic appraisal of what he already has on hand&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: mfan</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/11/17/the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-7664</link>
		<dc:creator>mfan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Nov 2004 22:09:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2052#comment-7664</guid>
		<description>I see what you mean now.  I would still believe that the analysis is correct in general.  As in, it&#039;s more often optimal to buy a used car than it is a new one.  This does not mean that there aren&#039;t good deals on new cars and people trying to give you the shaft on used cars.  It just says that you&#039;re more likely to find a good deal on a used car.  I don&#039;t want to oversell my belief in the results of one paper.  It&#039;s just one piece of evidence and can&#039;t be used to make blanket statements about every possible scenario.  However, I do think it is a valid piece of evidence.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I see what you mean now.  I would still believe that the analysis is correct in general.  As in, it&#8217;s more often optimal to buy a used car than it is a new one.  This does not mean that there aren&#8217;t good deals on new cars and people trying to give you the shaft on used cars.  It just says that you&#8217;re more likely to find a good deal on a used car.  I don&#8217;t want to oversell my belief in the results of one paper.  It&#8217;s just one piece of evidence and can&#8217;t be used to make blanket statements about every possible scenario.  However, I do think it is a valid piece of evidence.</p>
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		<title>By: DMZ</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/11/17/the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-7661</link>
		<dc:creator>DMZ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Nov 2004 21:59:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2052#comment-7661</guid>
		<description>&quot;EVERYTHING ELSE BEING THE SAME&quot;? Everything else cannot be the same. You can&#039;t study it, or correct for that assumption.

The problem is that the question as framed entirely ignores the factor that determines its success or failure. It&#039;s like saying &quot;Is it better to buy a new or used car?&quot; and coming up with an answer like &quot;used&quot;. It entirely ignores that every cost/benefit discussion is different depending on the individual and the decision made on a generalization like that may have a slight advantage in being correct in more situations while still entirely wrong in many others.

Take the stars/scrubs thing. If you spend $20m on Bonds and $1m on three other players, and you spend the minimum on draft picks Hudson, Zito, Mulder, that&#039;s a huge difference in results against spending $20m on Chan Ho Park and $1m on three washed-up veterans. 

No study on payroll distributions or similar problems can avoid the problem that payrolls are once-removed from the ability that most separates good from bad teams: the ability to assess and acquire talent.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;EVERYTHING ELSE BEING THE SAME&#8221;? Everything else cannot be the same. You can&#8217;t study it, or correct for that assumption.</p>
<p>The problem is that the question as framed entirely ignores the factor that determines its success or failure. It&#8217;s like saying &#8220;Is it better to buy a new or used car?&#8221; and coming up with an answer like &#8220;used&#8221;. It entirely ignores that every cost/benefit discussion is different depending on the individual and the decision made on a generalization like that may have a slight advantage in being correct in more situations while still entirely wrong in many others.</p>
<p>Take the stars/scrubs thing. If you spend $20m on Bonds and $1m on three other players, and you spend the minimum on draft picks Hudson, Zito, Mulder, that&#8217;s a huge difference in results against spending $20m on Chan Ho Park and $1m on three washed-up veterans. </p>
<p>No study on payroll distributions or similar problems can avoid the problem that payrolls are once-removed from the ability that most separates good from bad teams: the ability to assess and acquire talent.</p>
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		<title>By: mfan</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/11/17/the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-7656</link>
		<dc:creator>mfan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Nov 2004 21:48:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2052#comment-7656</guid>
		<description>DMZ - The idea is to try and control for everything other than payroll distribution (i.e. payroll level, surrounding talent etc.).  That is, I interpret the results as trying to answer &quot;Should the D-Rays bring in Bonds @ $20M and three replacement level scrubs or should they spread the $20M around more evenly among the four players, holding the rest of the team constant?&quot;

Bringing in a $20M scrub isn&#039;t going to help anyone.  The idea is that contracts are correlated with the level of talent of the player involved and are, in this sense, a measure (albeit a noisy one) of player quality.  So, if I control for the overall talent level of a team, would a particular team be better off spending their money on two players that are OK, or one player that is great and one that is replacement level, WITH EVERYTHING ELSE BEING THE SAME.  I guess I don&#039;t see the flaw in the argument.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>DMZ &#8211; The idea is to try and control for everything other than payroll distribution (i.e. payroll level, surrounding talent etc.).  That is, I interpret the results as trying to answer &#8220;Should the D-Rays bring in Bonds @ $20M and three replacement level scrubs or should they spread the $20M around more evenly among the four players, holding the rest of the team constant?&#8221;</p>
<p>Bringing in a $20M scrub isn&#8217;t going to help anyone.  The idea is that contracts are correlated with the level of talent of the player involved and are, in this sense, a measure (albeit a noisy one) of player quality.  So, if I control for the overall talent level of a team, would a particular team be better off spending their money on two players that are OK, or one player that is great and one that is replacement level, WITH EVERYTHING ELSE BEING THE SAME.  I guess I don&#8217;t see the flaw in the argument.</p>
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		<title>By: DMZ</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/11/17/the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-7655</link>
		<dc:creator>DMZ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Nov 2004 21:15:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2052#comment-7655</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Their finding is that the greater the inequality within a teamâ€™s salary structure, the lower the performance of the team, all else equal.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

This echoes the much bantered-about stats that teams with more than x% of their payroll devoted to y players don&#039;t perform up to z standard.

It&#039;s a flawed argument because payroll distribution does not have anything to do with quality of payroll, or level of payroll. If I take the Devil Rays and spend $20m/year on a scrub, that doesn&#039;t help. Whereas brining in Barry Bonds does (see: the Giants). Similarly, if I have the Yankees, with 10 guys who make $20m/year, that payroll distribution&#039;s going to look pretty even, and perform well, but any of those guys would be 1/4th of the Expos payroll if they were over th ere.

Economic (and other) studies of sports issues often focus so specifically on the application of some tool or theory that they entirely miss the question of the worth of applying that same tool or theory to the problem, and what exactly the end result measures.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Their finding is that the greater the inequality within a teamâ€™s salary structure, the lower the performance of the team, all else equal.</p></blockquote>
<p>This echoes the much bantered-about stats that teams with more than x% of their payroll devoted to y players don&#8217;t perform up to z standard.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s a flawed argument because payroll distribution does not have anything to do with quality of payroll, or level of payroll. If I take the Devil Rays and spend $20m/year on a scrub, that doesn&#8217;t help. Whereas brining in Barry Bonds does (see: the Giants). Similarly, if I have the Yankees, with 10 guys who make $20m/year, that payroll distribution&#8217;s going to look pretty even, and perform well, but any of those guys would be 1/4th of the Expos payroll if they were over th ere.</p>
<p>Economic (and other) studies of sports issues often focus so specifically on the application of some tool or theory that they entirely miss the question of the worth of applying that same tool or theory to the problem, and what exactly the end result measures.</p>
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		<title>By: mfan</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/11/17/the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-7653</link>
		<dc:creator>mfan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Nov 2004 20:46:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2052#comment-7653</guid>
		<description>Agreed.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Agreed.</p>
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		<title>By: Econ guy</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2004/11/17/the-market/comment-page-1/#comment-7652</link>
		<dc:creator>Econ guy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Nov 2004 20:02:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2052#comment-7652</guid>
		<description>Re: #27
Some economists are very knowledgeable baseball experts.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: #27<br />
Some economists are very knowledgeable baseball experts.</p>
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