As for Green’s hitch, my friend didn’t bring it to the Dodgers attention until shortly before the All-Star break, but I also have no idea if they believed it, if they spoke to Green about it and tried to get him to adjust to it, or if Green heeded their advice. Green has kind of a reputation for doing what he thinks is best in spite of the advice of management anyways–playing on the injury being one example–the team did *not* want him doing that, and was understandably not thrilled when they found out. So it’s definitely a black box. My friend who noticed the hitch said he didn’t think Green had eliminated it even in the second half last season, so maybe he just felt stronger (which is also maybe not bad news for Sexson) or maybe something else entirely happened.

Do you know of any other similar injuries and how well hitters came back from them? An increased frame of reference would definitely help, but I haven’t anyone look at the examples of any other players.

I don’t want Delgado at $15 million per season, but he’s not going to get that. Our offer of $11 million seems to be tops, and he’s not gonna get a nearly %40 increase over that offer, especially in light of us potentially signing Sexson. Beltre at $12 million per season is a great deal in this silly offseason, and we should try to make it happen.

It’s like looking at trades based on future performance. You have to judge each decision based on the information available at the time.

I sure as hell like the risk of a 27 year old CF on pace for 500 home runs in his mid-30′s at $13.5 million (with no injury history, BTW) better than of a 30 or 32 year old 1B at close to that WITH an injury history.

Granted, I’d sign Beltre first, and think REAL hard about signing Beltran first given the choices, and I certainly wouldn’t lock into Jones- but if Jones is available, Christ, why WOULDN’T you consider him considering the prices on the FA market this year? What do you think’s more likely, Jones putting up a .275/30/100 line in 2008 at age 31, or Delgado performing well at age 36?

M’s do not have to have best hitters with Don Baylor as hitting coach M’s need big targets to get hit
Can’t have Sexson checking swings tearing shoulder. Imagine Baylor when 200 hitters bail on change-ups.

Plus big bodies will make our pitchers better as they will not fear to pitch inside with those enforcers coming out of the dugout. Alrigt game on.

To me, five seperate opinions, each lacking the knowledge to reach a conclusion, isn’t a consensus. It’s combined ignorance. My point all along was that Sexson’s shoulder is a giant unknown. I’m not arguing that its good or bad; I’m saying the only people who have any kind of insight are the Arizona team doctors. The same ones who decided that Troy Glaus was a better way to spend their money.

No, it’s not fact, but it is the opinion of a friend of mine who’s front office with an AL team, and a former player/scout/agent and has attended every Dodger home game in the last 10 years. Unless you’re awaiting the results of a randomized clinical trial studying a sample of 500 Shawn Green shoulders this will always be a matter of opinion, anyways, not fact.

I’m not ruling it out as a possibility. I will, say, however, that if he had a noticable hitch in his swing that could have been corrected without it being an injury problem, I’m almost certain the Dodgers would have noticed and corrected it. You cannot ignore the fact that this potential hitch was related to the shoulder problem, that the Dodgers knew about it, and that they didn’t correct it because it was directly related to his injury.

So are you trying to argue First Half Shawn is the same as Second Half Shawn? Be my guest.

No. I’m arguing that post-injury Shawn has been far less effective than pre-injury Shawn. Nothing more, nothing less.

I see your point, but you’re replying to a speculative point with what looks like more speculation. Reed five years ago wasn’t as good a hitter as Winn, either, but that’s not the point. Since this clearly a dispute that can’t be resolved with numbers alone, how about we settle this like gentlemen: I’ll wager Reed hits better than Winn next year, and you’re welcome to join in on Winn’s behalf. Deal?.

Predictions aren’t analysis. Winn could hit .380 next year, but that doesn’t mean I knew it was coming. It’s pretty clear that as of the end of the season, Randy Winn was a better hitter than Jeremy Reed. Historical trends tell us that this will likely continue to be true next year. If you’ve got some kind of valid reason for why you feel this case is an exception, feel free to throw it out there. I’d rather debate logical positions than place wagers.