838
813
788
869

Offensively, this looks like an decent major league right fielder to me.

Jim Albright

None on: .376/.401/.475
1B only: .355/.378/.393
Runners on: .364/.439/.412

So the effect is still there, but it’s not nearly as severe as the 3-year (2002-2004) split you’ve quoted. Why is that? Well, 2003 is also not as severe as the 3-year number. But then there’s 2002:

None on: .332/.379/.450
1B only: .227/.257/.289
Runners on: .301/.402/.375

So the 3-year split just happens to include a huge anomaly from 2002…how conveeeeeeeenient…

I think that if there was a big problem, he’s addressed it somehow. I don’t see how putting him in the “runner on 1B” situation another two dozen times each year presents any great hazard to his performance level. Note also that the individuals on first in the “Ichiro batting #2″ scenario would tend to be somewhat faster than those reflected in the stats we’re quoting here, which cuts down a bit on the easy FC situations both through ordinary base speed and by stealing second to eliminate force options.

Costing Ichiro 18 PAs is of some consequence, but so is costing Bonds 36 PAs…should Bonds bat leadoff to prevent that? In general it’s best to bat strong hitters next to other strong hitters to benefit from synergy both before and after each good offensive player. That lineup effect will generally outweigh any of these other effects discussed here. Enshrining an excellent player at the top of the order for “inside baseball” cultural reasons fails, I think, to gain the full advantage that’s offered.

Overall, his K/BB with no one on is 135/60, but with runners on, it’s 59/93 !! That’s one remarkable shift. With guys on 1B only, it’s 28/14, meaning an even more astounding 31/79 with RISP.

Anyway, focus on Ichiro’s stats when he makes contact and it’s not a HR:
with men on 1B only, its 89 hits on 285 contact in-park PA, for an average of .312. His overall average is .361. So, still a discrepancy, but not so bad. A 49 point difference based on 285 PA is only 2 standard deviations away. Well within the realm of luck.

I think the most likely explanation is:
1 – Ichiro completely changes his approach to hitting with runners in scoring position
2 – Any other difference is probably luck

Tom

None on: .341/.372/.454
On 1st (only): .289/.323./.356
Runners on: .326/.409/.408

So, yes, Ichiro has performed worse with a single runner on first over the past three years. That’s also true in his most recent year. The stats appear to back up the observation that Ichiro is not at his best with a single runner on. For the record, according to data I pulled from Retrosheet for the AL 1981-1990, the average hitter gets a bump of 4.3% in their batting average with a runner on first.

One of your best pieces ever:
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1599&mode=print&nocache=1109777561

Couldn’t I have said: “MLB teams don’t want revenue sharing, so there won’t be real revenue sharing, so that puts a damper on my interest and general speculation…”

In every interesting unpaid analysis that is done, the value is not in the destination, but in the journey. It’s what you learn, what information you use, how you use it. It’s the whole framework of how to think, and what to look for.

Everything baseball analysis we do and write is completely trivial and meaningless. But, it’s fun, and that’s why some of us speculate on the Ichiro move, and how you can learn something from it. It’s irrelevant if the destination of Ichiro being in CF is remote. The journey itself is fun.

This also doesn’t stop people from debating Ruth, Williams, and Bonds, even though their playing conditions have changed drastically.

I agree with the other poster that without conjecture, blogs would lose some of their huge appeal.