Comments on: Down to the wire http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/07/31/down-to-the-wire/ Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion Thu, 09 Feb 2012 17:41:40 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: km4_1999 http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/07/31/down-to-the-wire/comment-page-4/#comment-53084 km4_1999 Mon, 01 Aug 2005 15:06:04 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2823#comment-53084 Dave, I am a fan so I admit I can only assume/speculate. If Hernandez was not a "outside the box" signing then what kind of budget would the M's have for international talent on a yearly basis? It seems to me that the M's roughly budgeted 90million to start the season for the team, and they have now saved a few million for the rest of the years salaries, so why wouldn't they invest that back into their future talent? Dave,

I am a fan so I admit I can only assume/speculate. If Hernandez was not a “outside the box” signing then what kind of budget would the M’s have for international talent on a yearly basis?

It seems to me that the M’s roughly budgeted 90million to start the season for the team, and they have now saved a few million for the rest of the years salaries, so why wouldn’t they invest that back into their future talent?

]]> By: eponymous coward http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/07/31/down-to-the-wire/comment-page-4/#comment-53060 eponymous coward Mon, 01 Aug 2005 07:54:58 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2823#comment-53060 That's fair enough, considering park effects- but I'm not as convinced that 3 of 4 are going to happen. Ibañez is producing well this year, but he's also 33, and gravity's going to kick in at some point. Sexson's having a career year this year, and Reed might take a while to get going. I think getting improvement out of Beltre and Doyle performing above Winn are probably the safest assumptions- but even then, Doyle's got injury history and Beltre's 2005 is not out of context for his career. He might be the new Bret Boone and only show up as an MVP candidate for 3-4 years out of his career. Another bat might help with that...but where does said bat go? That’s fair enough, considering park effects- but I’m not as convinced that 3 of 4 are going to happen. Ibañez is producing well this year, but he’s also 33, and gravity’s going to kick in at some point. Sexson’s having a career year this year, and Reed might take a while to get going.

I think getting improvement out of Beltre and Doyle performing above Winn are probably the safest assumptions- but even then, Doyle’s got injury history and Beltre’s 2005 is not out of context for his career. He might be the new Bret Boone and only show up as an MVP candidate for 3-4 years out of his career.

Another bat might help with that…but where does said bat go?

]]> By: troy http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/07/31/down-to-the-wire/comment-page-4/#comment-53054 troy Mon, 01 Aug 2005 06:46:40 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2823#comment-53054 Re: 157. In point #4 I meant "splits the difference" between 04 and 05, not actually returns to 04 production. Sorry if that was a bit unclear. Re: 157. In point #4 I meant “splits the difference” between 04 and 05, not actually returns to 04 production. Sorry if that was a bit unclear.

]]> By: troy http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/07/31/down-to-the-wire/comment-page-4/#comment-53052 troy Mon, 01 Aug 2005 06:45:17 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2823#comment-53052 EC, raw runs scored, or park adjusted? I don't think that lineup will be top 5 overall, but after adjusting for Safeco I think it could be a top 5 offense, or at least very close to it. I'm basing that off of four assumptions, some more iffy than others: 1) This year is a reasonable indication of what we can expect from Sexson and Ibanez next year. 2) Doyle can stay healthy and perform at or above the level Dave predicted for him above. 3) Reed makes a big jump in production. 4) Beltre at least bridges the gap between his 04 and 05. I don't think any of those things are particularly unlikely, although it's three out of four would probably me most realistic. If we put together a big-league bench for once, that would help a lot too. I'm certainly not ready to speculate that that will happen though. EC, raw runs scored, or park adjusted? I don’t think that lineup will be top 5 overall, but after adjusting for Safeco I think it could be a top 5 offense, or at least very close to it.

I’m basing that off of four assumptions, some more iffy than others:

1) This year is a reasonable indication of what we can expect from Sexson and Ibanez next year.
2) Doyle can stay healthy and perform at or above the level Dave predicted for him above.
3) Reed makes a big jump in production.
4) Beltre at least bridges the gap between his 04 and 05.

I don’t think any of those things are particularly unlikely, although it’s three out of four would probably me most realistic.

If we put together a big-league bench for once, that would help a lot too. I’m certainly not ready to speculate that that will happen though.

]]> By: eponymous coward http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/07/31/down-to-the-wire/comment-page-4/#comment-53049 eponymous coward Mon, 01 Aug 2005 05:45:07 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2823#comment-53049 Probably not, no. I bet Lou would have pumped for Doyle to go to TB in a Huff deal. I think the bottom line is this- do you think this lineup is going to be near the top of the league in runs scored (top 5)? Ichiro Reed Beltre Sexson Ibañez Doyle Lopez or Morse Torrealba/Rivera Betancourt If you do, you probably don't need Huff. (I suspect that even if we invest in pitching it's unlikely we'll be a top-5 staff in 2006, so I put it in terms of offense). If you don't, it's not likely we contend- so how do you fix it? Probably not, no.

I bet Lou would have pumped for Doyle to go to TB in a Huff deal.

I think the bottom line is this- do you think this lineup is going to be near the top of the league in runs scored (top 5)?

Ichiro
Reed
Beltre
Sexson
Ibañez
Doyle
Lopez or Morse
Torrealba/Rivera
Betancourt

If you do, you probably don’t need Huff. (I suspect that even if we invest in pitching it’s unlikely we’ll be a top-5 staff in 2006, so I put it in terms of offense).

If you don’t, it’s not likely we contend- so how do you fix it?

]]> By: Rusty http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/07/31/down-to-the-wire/comment-page-4/#comment-53048 Rusty Mon, 01 Aug 2005 05:39:17 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2823#comment-53048 #155. Don't jump to conclusions. I said I was worried. I wasn't "writing him off". Those are your words. I qualifed my criticism of him by saying if this is the best that we can expect of him, then we might look to other plans. If he can improve on this year's numbers then perhaps we'll be alright in CF. But he has a ways to go. Last year in 58 AB's he hit .397/.470/.466. Most of those numbers were propped up by an unsustainable singles rate. This year in 322 AB's he has hit .255/.320/.345, and Bloomquist is stealing at bats from him. I don't understand the Arod comparison... 1994 .204/.241/.204 in 54 AB's 1995 .232/.264/.408 in 142 AB's 1996 .358/.414/.631 in 601 AB's Which first year are you refering to? By the time ARod was at his 380th MLB at bat, as Jeremy is, he was hitting the snot out of the ball. #155. Don’t jump to conclusions. I said I was worried. I wasn’t “writing him off”. Those are your words. I qualifed my criticism of him by saying if this is the best that we can expect of him, then we might look to other plans. If he can improve on this year’s numbers then perhaps we’ll be alright in CF. But he has a ways to go.

Last year in 58 AB’s he hit .397/.470/.466. Most of those numbers were propped up by an unsustainable singles rate.

This year in 322 AB’s he has hit .255/.320/.345, and Bloomquist is stealing at bats from him.

I don’t understand the Arod comparison…
1994 .204/.241/.204 in 54 AB’s
1995 .232/.264/.408 in 142 AB’s
1996 .358/.414/.631 in 601 AB’s

Which first year are you refering to? By the time ARod was at his 380th MLB at bat, as Jeremy is, he was hitting the snot out of the ball.

]]> By: Daaaaan http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/07/31/down-to-the-wire/comment-page-4/#comment-53047 Daaaaan Mon, 01 Aug 2005 05:19:50 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2823#comment-53047 #153, you're going to write off reed based on his first year in the big leagues? smooth. reed has been doing great on defense, and on hitting it's not abnormal for a player (think arod) to have a rough first year around. i'd much rather have him hit this way this year, than win the ROY and have a sophmore slump next year. besides, TB was saying they weren't trading unless teams put their best prospect on the block. would you trade the m's best prospect for huff? #153, you’re going to write off reed based on his first year in the big leagues? smooth. reed has been doing great on defense, and on hitting it’s not abnormal for a player (think arod) to have a rough first year around. i’d much rather have him hit this way this year, than win the ROY and have a sophmore slump next year.

besides, TB was saying they weren’t trading unless teams put their best prospect on the block. would you trade the m’s best prospect for huff?

]]> By: Rusty http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/07/31/down-to-the-wire/comment-page-4/#comment-53045 Rusty Mon, 01 Aug 2005 04:53:29 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2823#comment-53045 It's not really LF or Doyle that I'm worried about when contemplating trading for Huff. Really the problem is likely be CF. If this is the best Reed has to offer then it's a bad deal to have CF capable guys at the corners when you could move one to play CF and have 2 pretty good power left-handed bats in Huff/Ibanez at LF/DH. It’s not really LF or Doyle that I’m worried about when contemplating trading for Huff. Really the problem is likely be CF. If this is the best Reed has to offer then it’s a bad deal to have CF capable guys at the corners when you could move one to play CF and have 2 pretty good power left-handed bats in Huff/Ibanez at LF/DH.

]]> By: Dave http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/07/31/down-to-the-wire/comment-page-4/#comment-53041 Dave Mon, 01 Aug 2005 04:08:19 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2823#comment-53041 <em>A few years ago we went outside the budget I presume to get a young Venezuelan pitcher named Hernandez...</em> Why would you presume that? A few years ago we went outside the budget I presume to get a young Venezuelan pitcher named Hernandez…

Why would you presume that?

]]> By: Dave http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/07/31/down-to-the-wire/comment-page-4/#comment-53040 Dave Mon, 01 Aug 2005 04:07:42 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2823#comment-53040 Snelling's line in Tacoma this year, when translated to an MLE, comes out something like .315/.395/.480. That's probably a bit too high, as I think Snelling's a bit over his head down there, but .290/.375/.450 is a totally reasonable expectation for him next year. Snelling’s line in Tacoma this year, when translated to an MLE, comes out something like .315/.395/.480. That’s probably a bit too high, as I think Snelling’s a bit over his head down there, but .290/.375/.450 is a totally reasonable expectation for him next year.

]]>