As several people have pointed out, the free agent market will be pretty thin this year. Perhaps Dave is right, and AJ Burnett might command $$$ in the $13 mil/year neighborhood. I don’t think that teams will go beyond 4 years, though. Although the market did go crazy last year, with mediocre pitchers getting a lot of cash, teams haven’t seemed willing to go beyond 3-4 years with pitchers. This is good.

If the M’s have to decide between Kevin Millwood, or perhaps Matt Morris, at 4 years, $40 mil, and Burnett for 4 years, $52 mil, I still think that you would have to consider Burnett. Millwood and Morris have had issues in the past, and neither is a real, dominant ace pitcher. With Burnett, you are getting a guy who can throw in the mid- to upper-90s and strike out more than a guy per inning. Morris and Millwood are both good pitchers, but they just don’t have dominant stuff. As mentioned above, and in a really good article at Baseball Analysts, groundball tendencies plus strikeouts is a recipe for success, and Burnett has that. Millwood is a flyball pitcher, and Safeco will help him. Morris is having a good year, but he doesn’t miss many bats either. Morris and Millwood are both good #2 or #3 pitchers. Burnett is an ace.

I think that Burnett, even with his injury issues, is worth $3 mil/year more than Millwood or Morris. Burnett has a lot more upside. He is a guy who could win a Cy Young. In the playoffs, he is the type of dominant ace that you need. I think that that is worth a little extra cash.

I still wouldn’t be surprised if they moved him, though.

see if these make you feel better:

http://www.cleveland.com/search/index.ssf?/base/sports/11224567494180.xml?s5tri&coll=2

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2047624

That said, he is a guy who could be a steal if he puts it all together. I wonder what it would take to land a guy like that? Adam Jones, Bobby Livingston, and a lesser prospect? Interesting.

Hey Dave,

Two questions:

-Has there been any word on Daisuke Matsuzaka and the chances that he will be posted? I think that he would be a worthy risk. If he passes a rigorous physical, it would be a good way to add a good young pitcher without spending a whole lot of money (at least, money that counts toward the payroll) or giving up draft picks.

-Any other starters that might be on the block? I wouldn’t be suprised to see Zito get moved while his value is high. Kerry Wood might be available if anyone would want him. Any other ideas?

*snicker*

An additional concern is that pitching a full year at his current weight might be doing something to his mechanics, e.g., damaging his elbow, shoulder, knee, back, etc.

If the Ms try to get him they should do their usual thorough job of evaluating his health and mechanics so he doesn’t end up on the DL. I’ve seen other clubs really take a step backwards when their pitchers get hurt. We don’t need that kind of bad luck around here, let me tell you.

I mean we have some young talent but do we wait and see what they can do or play the market for another power bat.

I would rather see Bavasi spend the money to make improvements to the rotation and have the young players try their stuff next year..and see where it goes from there.