Comments on: Updated Future Forty http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/08/updated-future-forty-3/ Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion Thu, 09 Feb 2012 23:35:08 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: Dave http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/08/updated-future-forty-3/comment-page-4/#comment-56604 Dave Wed, 10 Aug 2005 01:02:28 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2853#comment-56604 Walk rates are actually one of the least consistent indicators of performance, especially at the lower levels. Bret Boone, for instance, was a minor league walk machine. Asdrubal Cabrera has never had great plate discipline. His walk rates at Wisconsin were more a factor of poor pitching than good hitting. That said, he's still young enough where you wouldn't expect him to have tremendous grasp of the strike zone, and its not a huge concern. Walk rates are actually one of the least consistent indicators of performance, especially at the lower levels. Bret Boone, for instance, was a minor league walk machine. Asdrubal Cabrera has never had great plate discipline. His walk rates at Wisconsin were more a factor of poor pitching than good hitting. That said, he’s still young enough where you wouldn’t expect him to have tremendous grasp of the strike zone, and its not a huge concern.

]]> By: JH http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/08/updated-future-forty-3/comment-page-4/#comment-56595 JH Tue, 09 Aug 2005 23:58:45 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2853#comment-56595 Thanks a lot, Dave. One more question: One thing that I've noticed from Jones and Cabrera both of them have suffered noticeable declines in their walk rates since moving up a level. Jones' decline isn't so steep, going from 1 BB/9.3 AB in the Cali League to 1/12 in San Antonio, but Cabrera's plate discipline has all but disappeared: 1/6.4 ABs in Wisconsin, 1/17.3 ABs at Inland Empire. Is plate discipline a skill that often declines sharply at more advanced levels? Does Cabrera's decline indicate something wrong with his approach, or is it nothing to worry about? Again, thanks for all your great work. Ms fans are spoiled to have USSM as a free resource. Thanks a lot, Dave.

One more question: One thing that I’ve noticed from Jones and Cabrera both of them have suffered noticeable declines in their walk rates since moving up a level. Jones’ decline isn’t so steep, going from 1 BB/9.3 AB in the Cali League to 1/12 in San Antonio, but Cabrera’s plate discipline has all but disappeared: 1/6.4 ABs in Wisconsin, 1/17.3 ABs at Inland Empire.

Is plate discipline a skill that often declines sharply at more advanced levels? Does Cabrera’s decline indicate something wrong with his approach, or is it nothing to worry about?

Again, thanks for all your great work. Ms fans are spoiled to have USSM as a free resource.

]]> By: Dave http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/08/updated-future-forty-3/comment-page-4/#comment-56578 Dave Tue, 09 Aug 2005 23:19:51 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2853#comment-56578 Valbuena's a thick kid who isn't very impressive defensively right now. He's got some pop in his bat, but I don't know where he's going to play if his defense at second doesn't get better. He's going to have to work on his glove pretty hard. If he busts his tail and becomes an adequate defender, he could be a nice little prospect. If his glovework remains poor, though, he probably doesn't make the majors. Valbuena’s a thick kid who isn’t very impressive defensively right now. He’s got some pop in his bat, but I don’t know where he’s going to play if his defense at second doesn’t get better. He’s going to have to work on his glove pretty hard. If he busts his tail and becomes an adequate defender, he could be a nice little prospect. If his glovework remains poor, though, he probably doesn’t make the majors.

]]> By: JH http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/08/updated-future-forty-3/comment-page-4/#comment-56576 JH Tue, 09 Aug 2005 23:15:44 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2853#comment-56576 Dave, Aside from future 40 references, I've never heard you say much about Luis Valbuena. I don't know much about him other than that he hit really well in the VSL last year. Is the fact that you list his reward a notch below Cabrera/Tui's based on inferior tools, or is it because he doesn't have as much of a track record in the states? Dave,

Aside from future 40 references, I’ve never heard you say much about Luis Valbuena. I don’t know much about him other than that he hit really well in the VSL last year. Is the fact that you list his reward a notch below Cabrera/Tui’s based on inferior tools, or is it because he doesn’t have as much of a track record in the states?

]]> By: Ralph Malph http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/08/updated-future-forty-3/comment-page-4/#comment-56547 Ralph Malph Tue, 09 Aug 2005 21:49:31 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2853#comment-56547 So why did Bob Stoddard hurt his arm? So why did Bob Stoddard hurt his arm?

]]> By: RickL http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/08/updated-future-forty-3/comment-page-4/#comment-56537 RickL Tue, 09 Aug 2005 21:11:27 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2853#comment-56537 Dave, if you want to see the reason the M's pitchers hurt their arms, look at the following" http://www.throwmax.com/www-throwmax-com/baseballvideo.chk Dave, if you want to see the reason the M’s pitchers hurt their arms, look at the following”

http://www.throwmax.com/www-throwmax-com/baseballvideo.chk

]]> By: Steve Thornton http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/08/updated-future-forty-3/comment-page-4/#comment-56517 Steve Thornton Tue, 09 Aug 2005 20:21:02 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2853#comment-56517 123-126-129: you're right. Baseball Cube is wrong. Again. Their data entry is appalling; nearly every player has errors. Thanks for the Forecaster link. 123-126-129: you’re right. Baseball Cube is wrong. Again. Their data entry is appalling; nearly every player has errors. Thanks for the Forecaster link.

]]> By: vj http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/08/updated-future-forty-3/comment-page-4/#comment-56509 vj Tue, 09 Aug 2005 20:05:07 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2853#comment-56509 Dave, in the future fourty, you seem to have Sherril's year of birth wrong. According to the player page on yahoo sports, he was born in 1977, not 1982. Seems like a signifikant difference. Dave, in the future fourty, you seem to have Sherril’s year of birth wrong. According to the player page on yahoo sports, he was born in 1977, not 1982. Seems like a signifikant difference.

]]> By: eponymous coward http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/08/updated-future-forty-3/comment-page-4/#comment-56456 eponymous coward Tue, 09 Aug 2005 18:49:49 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2853#comment-56456 <i>He’s done pretty well in Tacoma with more regular use.</i> He hasn't, really. That's the problem. The numbers that Dave is using for Dobbs' "prime" aren't THAT far from what Willie B. is hitting right now (.278/.317/.349)- and the Ignitor is a serviceable infield and outfield backup, and has speed to boot that more than counters the extra power you'd get from Dobbs. My guess is Willie would probably be posting .290-.310 with a SLG in the low to mid 4's in Tacoma, and a OPS around .750-800, like other similar players have at similar ages in AAA (Rich Amaral comes to mind- he didn't get a job until 29). Someone like Dobbs isn't useful unless they can play critical defensive positions. That being said, I can see DMZ's "organizational soldier" argument. The problem is getting scouts to look past the personal qualities, sweet swing and the singles to the rest of the package- but yeah, Greg Dobbs as the new Dave Brundage kind of makes sense. He’s done pretty well in Tacoma with more regular use.

He hasn’t, really. That’s the problem. The numbers that Dave is using for Dobbs’ “prime” aren’t THAT far from what Willie B. is hitting right now (.278/.317/.349)- and the Ignitor is a serviceable infield and outfield backup, and has speed to boot that more than counters the extra power you’d get from Dobbs. My guess is Willie would probably be posting .290-.310 with a SLG in the low to mid 4′s in Tacoma, and a OPS around .750-800, like other similar players have at similar ages in AAA (Rich Amaral comes to mind- he didn’t get a job until 29). Someone like Dobbs isn’t useful unless they can play critical defensive positions.

That being said, I can see DMZ’s “organizational soldier” argument. The problem is getting scouts to look past the personal qualities, sweet swing and the singles to the rest of the package- but yeah, Greg Dobbs as the new Dave Brundage kind of makes sense.

]]> By: Dave http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/08/updated-future-forty-3/comment-page-3/#comment-56427 Dave Tue, 09 Aug 2005 17:31:29 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=2853#comment-56427 Wilson's a linebacker. The Seahawks should try him out. He's like 6'5, 270. He could probably pass for a defensive end. He's still got a ways to go as a baseball player. Wilson’s a linebacker. The Seahawks should try him out. He’s like 6’5, 270. He could probably pass for a defensive end.

He’s still got a ways to go as a baseball player.

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