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	<title>Comments on: Statistical Breakdown of the King</title>
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	<description>Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion</description>
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		<title>By: Bela Txadux</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/16/statistical-breakdown-of-the-king/comment-page-2/#comment-60164</link>
		<dc:creator>Bela Txadux</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Aug 2005 13:19:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2883#comment-60164</guid>
		<description>My great pleasure to be at the game for last night&#039;s game, with Mr. Lucky pitching.  Comments on the game thread were closed off two minutes before I got online yesterday, so here&#039;s a word or three on Felix and Co. from the stands.  

Re:  the Little Evil (El Gato&#039;s change-up, that is) not only is the change-up 10+mph slower than his fastball BUT STILL AT 86 AS GOOD AS MANY PITCHER&#039;S FASTBALLS, and in addition to the fact that it bends in mid patch like macaroni, consider this:  it&#039;s a strike.  Perfect location down in the zone, and Felix repeats it again and again.  The hitters can&#039;t touch it if they swing, but they&#039;ll get rung up if they don&#039;t.  Plenty of guys can&#039;t get their change-up over for a strike, it&#039;s just a &#039;&#039;nother look&#039; pitch; with El Gato it might be his best pitch.  Felix uses it to finish batters off, too, which demonstrates a very mature understanding of the game.  With two strikes on them, the hitters have to be thinking Big Heat while worrying about Big Evil (the curve), or at the very least be swinging to protect the plate-- and they get Little Evil in the zone.  . . . It just ain&#039;t fair, to them.  *hee hee-hee*  

I think the comparison of Felix to Kerry Wood is very apt, at least in terms of their level of talent and immediate impact.  Mr. Lucky is the best pitching package to come up since Wood [Prior just never got into a groove], but not only does Felix have the Little Evil, and good command, unlike the Cubbie, he&#039;s smarter _right now_ than Kerry Wood is ever going to be.  Think about these last two games.  When Felix has had a trouble spot with men on base, he&#039;s been perfectly willing to throw the ground ball pitch---sinker or curve---thus not only using his defense, but avoiding the bases-clearing XB hit, and most especially staying away from the multi-run dinger.  Unlike almost anyone else with his kind of fastball, he doesn&#039;t necessarily reach for the K when in trouble.  That is just so impressive to see.  Before Felix, I have to think back to Clemens at his peak.  (Pedro had great, great stuff, but it took managers years to figure out he should be starting).  Clemens had perhaps even better control, but Felix has the change-up and the Death Ray slider we haven&#039;t even seen yet---and El Gato is also three years younger without several seasons of U of T abuse in his arm.  But then again, in three starts what has El Rey given up, 1 W and 1 HBP (which the batter dived into, BTW)?  This is the stat focus I&#039;ll be looking at as Felix faces better offensive teams, does his walk rate stay down?  It won&#039;t stay that low, obviously, but as long as Felix is willing to throw the groundball rather than walk guys, the other team is going to have tremendous difficulty getting a rally going.  

I wondered if Grover would bring Felix back out for the 8th after the long Mariners inning, but I was glad to see it.  Felix wasn&#039;t at his pitch count, had tired a little but pitched through it quite well, thank you, and it&#039;s good to challenge him WITHIN REASON, so this was a fine place for it.  He rose to what challenge it amounted to extremely well, didn&#039;t give the Royals even a millimeter of daylight, nothing.  That&#039;s just the kind of attitude in the guy every pitching coach and manager wants to cultivate, and you can&#039;t do it by &#039;pre-guessing&#039; what he&#039;ll bring to the mound between his heart and his cojones.  I don&#039;t need for Felix to be truly great, yet; just to go out and pitch ahead in the count with command for the rest of the season.  He&#039;s faced lightweight competition so far, but he&#039;s about to see better hitting teams for the next month, and that&#039;s fine.  But as Dave said in Felix&#039;s last game thread, Mr. Lucky is _already_ one of the best pitchers in the majors, not next year, not next month, but right now, baby.  Three starts, and there&#039;s only a dozen guys, total, starting major league games who you&#039;d value as much on the mound when your team takes the field.  Right now.  

Mike Morse is trying as hard as he can at short---and only just holding his own, barely.  He doesn&#039;t have the quickness, it&#039;s clear, either hand or foot.  A great idea at the plate, he has that, yes, and he could probably do well at 3B, but where does he fit on this team, then?  Traded out, but not for peanuts.  Dude understands how to hit, and he comes to play.  

YuBet looked absolutely cool in person, perfect angle to the ball, hands like cotton candy, great instincts; the only two plays he looked bad on both involved _very_ late feeds from Morse that hung him (Yunie) out to dry.  I was so much enjoying watching Betancourt, at times I lost track of the game situation with Felix, that&#039;s how good he was.  Yunie didn&#039;t have a great day at the plate but he wasn&#039;t looking foolish, either.  If it wasn&#039;t for the fact the Felix came up at the same time, we&#039;d all be talking about the tremendous talent which the Ms have in Yubet, and drooling; instead, he seems almost an also ran.  Betancourt will never play another inning in the minors that&#039;s not rehab years and years from now.  

Sexon&#039;s HR was the best blast I have seen by a Mariner since when I can remember.  Opposite field smoker, looked like it was going to punch through the stands onto the railroad tracks.  EEEEE-yowwwWWWWW!  Worth the $38 seat I was polishing between standing ovations.  

And Ichi&#039;s bullet HR:  It is my opinion that since June or so Ichiro is _deliberately_ trying to drive the ball more in specific game situations, such as if he comes up with two outs, or with men on base and one or two outs.  Not when he&#039;s leading off, not when a rally is only just starting.  The Ms offense is not exactly sustaining rallies, is it?  So it looks to me that Ichiro is looking to get the runs in himself if there are a couple of outs.  Oh, he&#039;s picking his spots, but I think his long balls are the product of a deliberate hitting game plan on his part; he&#039;s hit some hard, deep fly balls for outs too in just these kinds of situations, where I never used to see him drive the ball in the air before.  It has been obvious to just about everyone that Ichiro could hit HRs regularly in a game if he wanted to.  He&#039;s supremely disciplined in what he does, though, and from his first game here it seemed he decided, &quot;My job is to get on base, period,&quot; and did everything conceivable in his game to that end.  Hitting fly ball outs does _not_ promote that end, and so Ichiro avoided such outcomes in his hitting plan, period.  Now, he seems, to me, to have accepted that the team needs for him to get a few more runs in given the present context, so he&#039;s fine tuned his hitting game subtly to that end.  . . . I think Ichiro could hit 20 HRs a year, automatically, bank on it, if he decides to, without fundamentally altering his game, just pick his spots like he&#039;s doing now.  I really hope he does that.  

What a cool game to see with me and my best buddy.  </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My great pleasure to be at the game for last night&#8217;s game, with Mr. Lucky pitching.  Comments on the game thread were closed off two minutes before I got online yesterday, so here&#8217;s a word or three on Felix and Co. from the stands.  </p>
<p>Re:  the Little Evil (El Gato&#8217;s change-up, that is) not only is the change-up 10+mph slower than his fastball BUT STILL AT 86 AS GOOD AS MANY PITCHER&#8217;S FASTBALLS, and in addition to the fact that it bends in mid patch like macaroni, consider this:  it&#8217;s a strike.  Perfect location down in the zone, and Felix repeats it again and again.  The hitters can&#8217;t touch it if they swing, but they&#8217;ll get rung up if they don&#8217;t.  Plenty of guys can&#8217;t get their change-up over for a strike, it&#8217;s just a &#8221;nother look&#8217; pitch; with El Gato it might be his best pitch.  Felix uses it to finish batters off, too, which demonstrates a very mature understanding of the game.  With two strikes on them, the hitters have to be thinking Big Heat while worrying about Big Evil (the curve), or at the very least be swinging to protect the plate&#8211; and they get Little Evil in the zone.  . . . It just ain&#8217;t fair, to them.  *hee hee-hee*  </p>
<p>I think the comparison of Felix to Kerry Wood is very apt, at least in terms of their level of talent and immediate impact.  Mr. Lucky is the best pitching package to come up since Wood [Prior just never got into a groove], but not only does Felix have the Little Evil, and good command, unlike the Cubbie, he&#8217;s smarter _right now_ than Kerry Wood is ever going to be.  Think about these last two games.  When Felix has had a trouble spot with men on base, he&#8217;s been perfectly willing to throw the ground ball pitch&#8212;sinker or curve&#8212;thus not only using his defense, but avoiding the bases-clearing XB hit, and most especially staying away from the multi-run dinger.  Unlike almost anyone else with his kind of fastball, he doesn&#8217;t necessarily reach for the K when in trouble.  That is just so impressive to see.  Before Felix, I have to think back to Clemens at his peak.  (Pedro had great, great stuff, but it took managers years to figure out he should be starting).  Clemens had perhaps even better control, but Felix has the change-up and the Death Ray slider we haven&#8217;t even seen yet&#8212;and El Gato is also three years younger without several seasons of U of T abuse in his arm.  But then again, in three starts what has El Rey given up, 1 W and 1 HBP (which the batter dived into, BTW)?  This is the stat focus I&#8217;ll be looking at as Felix faces better offensive teams, does his walk rate stay down?  It won&#8217;t stay that low, obviously, but as long as Felix is willing to throw the groundball rather than walk guys, the other team is going to have tremendous difficulty getting a rally going.  </p>
<p>I wondered if Grover would bring Felix back out for the 8th after the long Mariners inning, but I was glad to see it.  Felix wasn&#8217;t at his pitch count, had tired a little but pitched through it quite well, thank you, and it&#8217;s good to challenge him WITHIN REASON, so this was a fine place for it.  He rose to what challenge it amounted to extremely well, didn&#8217;t give the Royals even a millimeter of daylight, nothing.  That&#8217;s just the kind of attitude in the guy every pitching coach and manager wants to cultivate, and you can&#8217;t do it by &#8216;pre-guessing&#8217; what he&#8217;ll bring to the mound between his heart and his cojones.  I don&#8217;t need for Felix to be truly great, yet; just to go out and pitch ahead in the count with command for the rest of the season.  He&#8217;s faced lightweight competition so far, but he&#8217;s about to see better hitting teams for the next month, and that&#8217;s fine.  But as Dave said in Felix&#8217;s last game thread, Mr. Lucky is _already_ one of the best pitchers in the majors, not next year, not next month, but right now, baby.  Three starts, and there&#8217;s only a dozen guys, total, starting major league games who you&#8217;d value as much on the mound when your team takes the field.  Right now.  </p>
<p>Mike Morse is trying as hard as he can at short&#8212;and only just holding his own, barely.  He doesn&#8217;t have the quickness, it&#8217;s clear, either hand or foot.  A great idea at the plate, he has that, yes, and he could probably do well at 3B, but where does he fit on this team, then?  Traded out, but not for peanuts.  Dude understands how to hit, and he comes to play.  </p>
<p>YuBet looked absolutely cool in person, perfect angle to the ball, hands like cotton candy, great instincts; the only two plays he looked bad on both involved _very_ late feeds from Morse that hung him (Yunie) out to dry.  I was so much enjoying watching Betancourt, at times I lost track of the game situation with Felix, that&#8217;s how good he was.  Yunie didn&#8217;t have a great day at the plate but he wasn&#8217;t looking foolish, either.  If it wasn&#8217;t for the fact the Felix came up at the same time, we&#8217;d all be talking about the tremendous talent which the Ms have in Yubet, and drooling; instead, he seems almost an also ran.  Betancourt will never play another inning in the minors that&#8217;s not rehab years and years from now.  </p>
<p>Sexon&#8217;s HR was the best blast I have seen by a Mariner since when I can remember.  Opposite field smoker, looked like it was going to punch through the stands onto the railroad tracks.  EEEEE-yowwwWWWWW!  Worth the $38 seat I was polishing between standing ovations.  </p>
<p>And Ichi&#8217;s bullet HR:  It is my opinion that since June or so Ichiro is _deliberately_ trying to drive the ball more in specific game situations, such as if he comes up with two outs, or with men on base and one or two outs.  Not when he&#8217;s leading off, not when a rally is only just starting.  The Ms offense is not exactly sustaining rallies, is it?  So it looks to me that Ichiro is looking to get the runs in himself if there are a couple of outs.  Oh, he&#8217;s picking his spots, but I think his long balls are the product of a deliberate hitting game plan on his part; he&#8217;s hit some hard, deep fly balls for outs too in just these kinds of situations, where I never used to see him drive the ball in the air before.  It has been obvious to just about everyone that Ichiro could hit HRs regularly in a game if he wanted to.  He&#8217;s supremely disciplined in what he does, though, and from his first game here it seemed he decided, &#8220;My job is to get on base, period,&#8221; and did everything conceivable in his game to that end.  Hitting fly ball outs does _not_ promote that end, and so Ichiro avoided such outcomes in his hitting plan, period.  Now, he seems, to me, to have accepted that the team needs for him to get a few more runs in given the present context, so he&#8217;s fine tuned his hitting game subtly to that end.  . . . I think Ichiro could hit 20 HRs a year, automatically, bank on it, if he decides to, without fundamentally altering his game, just pick his spots like he&#8217;s doing now.  I really hope he does that.  </p>
<p>What a cool game to see with me and my best buddy.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/16/statistical-breakdown-of-the-king/comment-page-2/#comment-60013</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Aug 2005 02:15:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2883#comment-60013</guid>
		<description>Felix &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Ryan Anderson.  

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Felix &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Ryan Anderson.</p>
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		<title>By: LWM</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/16/statistical-breakdown-of-the-king/comment-page-2/#comment-59988</link>
		<dc:creator>LWM</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Aug 2005 01:41:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2883#comment-59988</guid>
		<description>Hello everyone.  I&#039;m a die-hard Mariner fan who&#039;s been living on the East coast for the past 15+ years.  I recently found this site and I wanted to thank you all for posting such insightful comments.  I am finally among kindred spirits.

As for King Felix, he certainly adds excitement to an otherwise disappointing season.  Reading ESPN&#039;s piece reminded me of Rob Neyer&#039;s column several years ago about Ryan Anderson, and how he was far and above the AAA competition.  This brings up the question to those fortunate enough to see Felix pitch ... how did he compare with the Little Unit, when he was his dominant self in Tacoma before the injuries?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hello everyone.  I&#8217;m a die-hard Mariner fan who&#8217;s been living on the East coast for the past 15+ years.  I recently found this site and I wanted to thank you all for posting such insightful comments.  I am finally among kindred spirits.</p>
<p>As for King Felix, he certainly adds excitement to an otherwise disappointing season.  Reading ESPN&#8217;s piece reminded me of Rob Neyer&#8217;s column several years ago about Ryan Anderson, and how he was far and above the AAA competition.  This brings up the question to those fortunate enough to see Felix pitch &#8230; how did he compare with the Little Unit, when he was his dominant self in Tacoma before the injuries?</p>
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		<title>By: Steve Thornton</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/16/statistical-breakdown-of-the-king/comment-page-2/#comment-59981</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Thornton</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Aug 2005 00:29:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2883#comment-59981</guid>
		<description>One more stupid Felix stat: after three games, he&#039;s now third on the team in &quot;RP&quot;, Runs Prevented, and first among starters. Only Eddie and Mateo are above him. That&#039;s not as incredible as it sounds, seeing as how EVERY OTHER Mariners starter is in negative numbers. RP is based on average, not replacement value, as VORP is. 

Felix is still behind by a little in VORP, as our entire rotation except for him is pretty much the dictionary definition of &quot;replacement level&quot;, being only an insignificant fraction better than the thousands and thousands of freely available losers available for free elsewhere.

Except for one diamond in the dross.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One more stupid Felix stat: after three games, he&#8217;s now third on the team in &#8220;RP&#8221;, Runs Prevented, and first among starters. Only Eddie and Mateo are above him. That&#8217;s not as incredible as it sounds, seeing as how EVERY OTHER Mariners starter is in negative numbers. RP is based on average, not replacement value, as VORP is. </p>
<p>Felix is still behind by a little in VORP, as our entire rotation except for him is pretty much the dictionary definition of &#8220;replacement level&#8221;, being only an insignificant fraction better than the thousands and thousands of freely available losers available for free elsewhere.</p>
<p>Except for one diamond in the dross.</p>
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		<title>By: feldor</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/16/statistical-breakdown-of-the-king/comment-page-2/#comment-59980</link>
		<dc:creator>feldor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Aug 2005 00:20:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2883#comment-59980</guid>
		<description>They tried to start the wave in the cheap seats around the 8th.  It never got going though.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>They tried to start the wave in the cheap seats around the 8th.  It never got going though.</p>
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		<title>By: ScottSimpson</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/16/statistical-breakdown-of-the-king/comment-page-2/#comment-59957</link>
		<dc:creator>ScottSimpson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Aug 2005 22:27:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2883#comment-59957</guid>
		<description>The best thing about last night&#039;s game: no wave. Attention was actually focused on the game. Felix, the Wave Killer.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The best thing about last night&#8217;s game: no wave. Attention was actually focused on the game. Felix, the Wave Killer.</p>
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		<title>By: Mords</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/16/statistical-breakdown-of-the-king/comment-page-2/#comment-59952</link>
		<dc:creator>Mords</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Aug 2005 21:57:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2883#comment-59952</guid>
		<description>I concede. It would be interesting.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I concede. It would be interesting.</p>
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		<title>By: Kami</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/16/statistical-breakdown-of-the-king/comment-page-2/#comment-59951</link>
		<dc:creator>Kami</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Aug 2005 21:54:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2883#comment-59951</guid>
		<description>Of course it would be because of Felix, but also Randy and his history here.  Passing of the old jerk to the next generation of great Mariner pitcher.  Plus with our history with NY.  Doesn&#039;t matter if either is playoff bound or not...still a lot of history.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Of course it would be because of Felix, but also Randy and his history here.  Passing of the old jerk to the next generation of great Mariner pitcher.  Plus with our history with NY.  Doesn&#8217;t matter if either is playoff bound or not&#8230;still a lot of history.</p>
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		<title>By: The only M's fan in Manitoba</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/16/statistical-breakdown-of-the-king/comment-page-2/#comment-59950</link>
		<dc:creator>The only M's fan in Manitoba</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Aug 2005 21:51:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2883#comment-59950</guid>
		<description>The gods of baseball willing, I&#039;ll be sitting in the Homerdome on Saturday night watching my beloved M&#039;s live for the first time in two years.  Let&#039;s face it, folks, it&#039;s been that long since catching a live game has been worth the 14 hours on the road and $200USD for a room.  

Sure, it&#039;s only been 3 games, but all hail Felix for giving us something to hope for.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The gods of baseball willing, I&#8217;ll be sitting in the Homerdome on Saturday night watching my beloved M&#8217;s live for the first time in two years.  Let&#8217;s face it, folks, it&#8217;s been that long since catching a live game has been worth the 14 hours on the road and $200USD for a room.  </p>
<p>Sure, it&#8217;s only been 3 games, but all hail Felix for giving us something to hope for.</p>
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		<title>By: Mords</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2005/08/16/statistical-breakdown-of-the-king/comment-page-2/#comment-59949</link>
		<dc:creator>Mords</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Aug 2005 21:51:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=2883#comment-59949</guid>
		<description>It would only be interesting because it&#039;s Felix. As a rubber game between the Mariners and Yankees could hardly be more meaningless (esp. to us), what game it is doesn&#039;t matter.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It would only be interesting because it&#8217;s Felix. As a rubber game between the Mariners and Yankees could hardly be more meaningless (esp. to us), what game it is doesn&#8217;t matter.</p>
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