Comments on: Projecting Felix In 2006

By: Trenchtown

Trenchtown — Fri, 26 Aug 2005 20:56:15 +0000

If this team signs Jarrod Washburn to any job other then peanut vendor, it will be the making of 100 loss seasons in 06 and 07

By: bookbook

bookbook — Fri, 26 Aug 2005 20:54:33 +0000

What level prospects are Jones/Lopez/Tui? B? If all three work out, and Reed develops, and Clements comes faster than catchers tend to, we start to see the potential for a better than league average offense.

Seems a long longshot scenario here in the dog days of the second season of our discontent.

By: Rusty

Rusty — Fri, 26 Aug 2005 19:26:01 +0000

Schmidt is from Vancouver, WA and nearly signed with the M’s last time around

Think about this “what if” scenario… the M’s almost signed Schmidt but instead lost out on him to the Giants. Then they turned around and used that money to trade for Jeff Cirillo. Do the math on the VORP, WARP, etc., and it’s easy to see why the M’s missed the playoffs in 2002 and 2003.

By: Pete Livengood

Pete Livengood — Fri, 26 Aug 2005 19:18:36 +0000

It is a thin FA market for pitchers — when the best there is out there are guys like Matt Morris, AJ Burnett, Jeff Weaver, Kevin Millwood, and Jarrod Washburn, you really aren’t looking at potential #1′s (with the possible exception of Burnett) so much as #2-3′s or worse. One other guy I think should be mentioned is Jason Schmidt. The Giants have an option on him ($10.5M next year, with a buyout of $3.5M), but have been reported to be considering declining that, and/or open to a trade. Schmidt is from Vancouver, WA and nearly signed with the M’s last time around, and would probably be open to an extension if the M’s wanted to lock him up beyond 2006. Reportedly, the Giants wanted two MLB-ready starters and a pitching prospect for Schmidt at the deadline — pretty steep. I think they would come down from that, but if they would consider a trade of Meche or Piniero plus Franklin, and maybe somebody like Nageotte, I would favor that for Schmidt. It’s probably not enough, unless they are seriously thinking of declining his option….

By: eponymous coward

eponymous coward — Fri, 26 Aug 2005 18:25:24 +0000

(Without Snelling, I donÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t see how our minor leagues help in the coming years, other than providing banjo-hitting MIs. Maybe we should just shut the doors and go to an all FA model?)

I don’t think Jones, Lopez and Tui will be banjo hitters. What they will be is right-handed. Clement’s about it for LHB who might thump in the majors, and our lineup has IbaÃƒÂ±ez as the only LHB middle of the order hitter…and most people don’t consider .285/22/90 a solid middle of the order hitter.

By: bookbook

bookbook — Fri, 26 Aug 2005 17:05:00 +0000

I like the idea of trading for a solid or (prospective) starting pitcher.

I don’t see that we have anything people are salivating to get. Mateo and Putz have value, but its limited by the lower-impact roles they seem best suited for.

Strong, Leone, Dobbs, WFB, et al are the kinds of talents people sign off the waiver wire, not the kind they trade for.

The only hope I see is the miracle Madritsch recovery and Soriano stretches out to be a starter scenario.

If we add two stud starting pitchers by the FA market, we’ll only be an offense away from being competitive. (Without Snelling, I don’t see how our minor leagues help in the coming years, other than providing banjo-hitting MIs. Maybe we should just shut the doors and go to an all FA model?)

By: Mikael

Mikael — Fri, 26 Aug 2005 06:38:26 +0000

Dave, 2 questions

Why did you use two NL pitchers as 2005 performance comparisons for Felix Hernandez?? Does your calculations automatically adjust for differences in AL and NL ?

Thanks.

By: Long Suffering

Long Suffering — Fri, 26 Aug 2005 01:09:52 +0000

Like I said, the As traded them because they couldn’t hang onto them being a small market team. In other words, they were traded because they had to be traded, like Garcia and Johnson or the team risked getting nothing save draft picks (like the Marlins will get with Burnett).

I then listed that as “1)find a team that’s about to lose a good SP” and who qualifies under that in 05/06? Every large market team is looking to get players like that, but I don’t see any except for maybe Barry Zito. (Again, which I mentioned)

Silva doesn’t count for the same reason Capuano, et al do not count. They were not solid SP at the time of the trade. They were unproven.

Read again what I said in 96. There are two ways (95%) to get SP in trades. I covered what you brought up. #1 yields a crop thinner than the FA market, #2 is riskier than FA.

I’m not saying it’s impossible or that I don’t want them to do it. Like I said in 93, I think the quality of team is directly linked to how many solid additions to the rotation they get. I don’t care if it’s through FA or trade, (although I prefer FA since then we’d have a chance to keep solid guys for the bench) just that
A)I think that the FA pitchers are better than what we could reasonably get on the trade market
B)Trading for SP is a lot harder than people in the thread were making it seem.

By: Mat

Mat — Fri, 26 Aug 2005 00:23:38 +0000

Why is it that the Oakland pitchers don’t count again? The M’s are a big budget club, they should be looking to get players like that off of small budget teams whenever they can.

For that matter, why doesn’t Silva count? Just because the Phillies didn’t realize they had a starter on their hands doesn’t mean they didn’t trade away starting pitching. They got a rather expensive, mediocre season out of the “proven” Milton, and now the Twins are getting cheaper, better quality seasons out of Silva. Guys like that are out there, you just have to look for them and trust your scouts evalutations.

The M’s should get pitching wherever they can find it, they shouldn’t limit themselves to just free agents or trades. Looking at the top pitchers in the league, though, I don’t see many, if any, pitchers that are going into free agency. So I guess I’ll sort of back off my claim that trades are the way to go, but the free agent market isn’t a sure thing, either.

By: Long Suffering

Long Suffering — Thu, 25 Aug 2005 22:47:28 +0000

Capuano had all of 33IP when he was traded.
Brad Penny is a good example.
Carlos Silva had 1 career start when he was traded.
Livan Hernandez had ERA+ of 77 and 87 the two seasons before being traded (Gil Meche’s ERA+ was 86 in 2004 for reference)
The Oakland As deal are exactly what I outlined in “Teams couldn’t hang onto the player” part of my post.
Kazmir was a prospect and Vazquez was used to get Johnson, which doens’t count.

I said teams don’t trade solid SP and so far, other than say Brad Penny, I still don’t see much evidence of that. They may trade people who TURN into solid SP. The best you can hope for in the trade market is:
1) Find a team that’s about to lose a good SP.
2) Trade for a prospect.

Who fits the bill under 1? Barry Zito maybe.

We all know the success rate of pitching prospects so 2 is a crapshoot.

FA is the way to go.