Comments on: Free Agent Landmines

By: Adam S

Adam S — Fri, 14 Oct 2005 18:46:59 +0000

On Brown vs. Rogers, it isn’t really who will be better, it’s who will be better relative to salary.

Your choices are Rogers at something like 2/$13M or Brown at 1/$1+$4 in incentives. I’ll take Brown every time.

By: Joel

Joel — Fri, 14 Oct 2005 03:29:14 +0000

It doesn’t make sense to pay big money for a catcher like Molina when you have serviceable cheap alternatives (read Yorvit/Rivera) until Clement arrives.
Use the money on starting pitching and “left handed sock”.
I like Huff. I don’t like Dmitri Young. I like Arizona’s Chad Tracy (if he’s cheap).

By: eponymous coward

eponymous coward — Fri, 14 Oct 2005 03:27:09 +0000

Lemme get this straight.

Kevin Brown has more seasons in the past 4 where he’s pitched less than 100 IP than more than 150 IP.

Kenny Rogers has been healthy ALL of those seasons (that is, when he isn’t punching out photographers), with lousy peripherals (248 H in 211 2/3 IP for 2004 means LOTS of balls being put in play).

So, naturally, the guy who’s going to collapse and shouldn’t be offered an incentive-laden one year contract, is, of course, Kenny Rogers. ’cause, you know we have xFIP for Brown based on a teeny tiny sample size of 75 or so IP that say’s he’s gonna be good next year. Ignore that other stuff about how he can’t stay off the DL.

Uh, yeah.

But hey, I thought Jamie was a good candidate to collapse in 2005, so who knows? That’s why this is baseball- you end up learning the stats you use for projection aren’t all-powerful and are merely predictive but not perfect, and you get the pleasant surprises of Raul IbaÃƒÂ±ez, or unpleasant surprises like watching Olivo be wrose than anyone could imagine.

So we’ll see. I don’t think Rogers will be signed for longer than a one year deal with a vesting option based on innings pitched, any more than Jamie or Kevin Brown will, but who knows…

By: Jim Thomsen

Jim Thomsen — Fri, 14 Oct 2005 00:16:44 +0000

Eric Owens.

By: Feldor

Feldor — Thu, 13 Oct 2005 23:52:42 +0000

I think Aaron Sele sort of qualifies.

By: jtopps

jtopps — Thu, 13 Oct 2005 23:29:07 +0000

I am pretty sure the Mariners will not go for Molina. For one, Bavasi has said in interviews that the catcher position is not his priority. If they were to go for a catcher, I would much rather see Ramon Hernandez. He was hitting pretty well (in a pitcher’s park 1/2 the time) before he got hurt. Plus he plays for our trading partner/MLB-enforced rivals…not that that really matters in signing a free-agent, but still.

Besides Spiezio, has Bavasi signed any former Angels?

By: mln

mln — Thu, 13 Oct 2005 23:02:44 +0000

I read in a Milwaukee rag (believe it was the Journal-Sentitel or something like that) that Washburn would be very interested in signing with the Brewers since he is from Wisconisn. So you don’t have to worry about Bavasi signing this ex-Angel player.

By: Pete Livengood

Pete Livengood — Thu, 13 Oct 2005 23:01:03 +0000

Colm — not defending the move here, but Guzman was a classic “toolsy” player — very fast, at least was a decent defender in seasons before this one (+14 FRAA in ’04, before regressing to -11 this season), and was coming off his age 26 season in which his translated/park-adjusted averages were .273/.312/.388. Bowden had to have known he wasn’t getting OBP, but can be pardoned for thinking Guzman had yet to hit his peak and would deliver singles, speed, and defense. Of course, it didn’t work out that way, and many people argued the “logic” of signing Guzman to such an outlandish contract at the time, but that’s my best stab at trying to explain what Bowden might’ve been thinking.

Ahhhh, who am I kidding? Everybody knows Jim Bowden doesn’t think.

By: Colm

Colm — Thu, 13 Oct 2005 22:41:19 +0000

67 – yes, like Jim Bowden’s gut feeling that Christian Guzman was a contributor.

That deal bugs me more than any of the other examples of wasted money that Dave cites above. With Renteria and Koskie GMs paid big money for average players; with Wright, Ortiz and Milton, GMs looked at some superficially good numbers and ignored the other stats that pointed to their utter mediocrity. With Guzman, what was there ever to see other than mediocrity? His complete worthlessness with the bat has been obvious for years. No gaudy HR totals to blind a GM, no ‘clutch’ hits – nothing. $16M for four years for a AA player… it actually offends me anyone could be that stupid.

By: Long Suffering

Long Suffering — Thu, 13 Oct 2005 21:54:21 +0000

I, for one, do not see the free agent class after 06 as much better than this class. It might be a little deeper and that’s before extensions are signed.