Comments on: Adam Jones

By: msb

msb — Thu, 27 Oct 2005 00:35:34 +0000

#97– I find it hard to believe anybody could somehow turn into Cameron…

By: Dave

Dave — Wed, 26 Oct 2005 23:59:47 +0000

The metrics we have say that Reed was good, but not Cameron-esque in center. The same metrics that love Reed, by the way, thought Randy Winn in center was pretty solid as well.

By: adam

adam — Wed, 26 Oct 2005 23:39:12 +0000

How does Reed’s 2005 season stack up with Mike Cameron’s previous seasons?

I would think that would be a good indicator of Reed, using all the defensive stats.

By: Chris Miller

Chris Miller — Wed, 26 Oct 2005 23:31:18 +0000

#96, thanks. That makes sense. I was basing replacement level as someone well below league average in RA. I used Randy Winns Safeco #’s to create a team of Randy Winns and found it won about 90 games on a team of league average pitchers, not replacement level. But your point of using WARP makes sense.

By: robbbbbb

robbbbbb — Wed, 26 Oct 2005 23:14:43 +0000

The thinking is that Safeco elevates defensive metrics because it puts more balls in play? Or that a lot of those majestic, moon-shot homers turn into lazy fly balls? Those are reasonable hypotheses.

Hm. So that seems to imply that Jones’ bat will carry him in CF, with excellent defense, and that Reed at his peak will be able to hit well enough to hold down LF, with awesome defense. (ala… uh, Randy Winn.)

The lowside of this is that Reed continues to hit well enough to carry him as a CF, and he’s adequate out there, and Jones turns into a fourth outfielder.

The upside, of course, is that Reed turns into Mike Cameron, hoovering up balls wherever he goes with a top OBP. (Maybe without Cameron’s power), and Jones turns into Torii Hunter, who’s an asset to any team. (Top flight defense, power, maybe not so much OBP.)

It sounds like Clement and Jones are both likely to be ready in ’07. The future looks bright, if the M’s can find some starting pitching.

By: Southpaw

Southpaw — Wed, 26 Oct 2005 23:05:01 +0000

92. I’m having trouble finding it now, but I recall hearing the definition of a “replacement level team”, one that wins 53 games. So if you add 9 Randy Winns to that (36 WARP), you get 89 games. That’s a playoff team in the NL this season.

Dave, while SafeCo may be having an effect (some study did show SafeCo to be easier on defenders), do you agree that even adjusted, Reed’s 05 will still end up rating among the top CFers? Considering the margin he has above 2nd in RF and ZR I think he would stay in the top 5 after adjustment.

By: Dave

Dave — Wed, 26 Oct 2005 22:42:53 +0000

The jury is still out on Reed’s glove, for me. I know the metrics we have give him big scores for ’05, but I’m not totally convinced that’s not Safeco. I’m doing work on this, and hopefully I can do a defense-at-Safeco post at some point soon.

By: robbbbbb

robbbbbb — Wed, 26 Oct 2005 22:24:24 +0000

.300/.370/.460? Wow. That’s a high upside. Plus, I’ve been hearing big positives about Reed’s defense. And that’s what I find curious about that entry, Dave. Reed’s been getting huge reviews for his D, and the metrics back it up. Is Jones that capable of a defender? Because there’s noises about Jeremy Reed as a gold glover.

That’s All-Star level production right there. I was hoping for league average from Reed. In which case I understand why you wouldn’t trade Reed to open up room for Jones.

Is Jones’ future in the majors as a fourth outfielder?

I hope you’re right. (Well, I wouldn’t mind if they exceed your expectations by considerable margins, but hey, let’s try and stay within the realm of the reasonable.)

By: msb

msb — Wed, 26 Oct 2005 21:54:12 +0000

Jim Street just noticed Adam Jones in the outfield....

By: Chris Miller

Chris Miller — Wed, 26 Oct 2005 21:14:47 +0000

#91, I doubt a team full of Randy Winns would be contenders with replacement level pitching.