Great Article. Well reasoned.

But I think that you should have found a place for CCSabathia. IMO, every team would be interested if he were available. He’s not 25 yet, a lefty with lots of tools, five years AVERAGING 195 innings per year, not overworked but consistent. In addition, he already has a top 10 finish is wins, era, strikeouts, etc. I believe he’s poised to put these great tools/skills/output together for a few years.

Even if he never makes the jump, you get 200 innings of better than league average pitching from a lefty who can have dominant stretches.

He’s got some conditioning issues but can you say Mickey Lolich? And he’s just now starting to earn some $$$.

Joe

Exactly, I used counting stats. Pitchers are no good to the team if they can’t stay on the mound. Health is an ability. But go ahead, use rate stats, even then, there’s no way Halladay looks “easily better” than Santana.

Take Support Neutral Value Added over Replacement, Lineup-adjusted (SNLVAR), per 10 starts for 2003-2005, since that was the original time frame. Santana comes out with 2.5 wins per 10 starts while Halladay grades out to 2.3 wins per 10 starts. Per Clay Davenport’s translated statistics, Halladay has about 6.8 K/9 for the last three season, Santana has about a 9.3 K/9. Halladay has about a 1.2 BB/9 the last three seasons, Santana has a 1.8 BB/9 or so. Santana’s HR/9 is .8, Halladay’s is .7.

Halladay has no obvious edges on Santana, and Santana’s been healthier. Santana’s better than Halladay.

I’d have to think that injury risk alone makes Nick Johnson less valuable a commodity than a few guys not on this list.

Hank Blalock? I still believe.

After Felix, there aren’t many Mariners sniffing the top 100. And that, my friends, is why we’re fighting to find a way out of 4th place…

Using your numbers, Santana managed a WARP3 of 9.1 in 33 starts.
Halladay got his 6.9 in only 19 starts (before a line drive broke his leg). WARP3/start, Halladay beat Santana by over 30%.

That’s a pretty big margin.