Millwood was going to cost a bundle to sign; that is the outcome here. He’d be nice to have, but I’m not crying that the Ms didn’t pay this particular price. That someone conceived of Jarrod Washburn as a ‘reasonable alternative’ makes me cry like Viga-Glum.

I realize that Millwood is not Park, but still, a pitcher is risky.

95 – my bad, it’s backwards; one of Chan Ho Park’s comps is Millwood.

Did you follow the link you provided? Chan Ho Park’s name is nowhere to be found. Similarly, in Millwood’s list of PECOTA comps, Park is nowhere to be found. They both signed multi-year deals with Texas, past that, I don’t know that I’d call them similar pitchers.

Something happened in 2004 that made him worth only $7.0 Million for the 2005 season. As stated earlier or on a separate thread, there are a lot of factors that one cannot predict (most notably injury) that can make a pitching contract worth it, or a bust over the whole term.

‘Boras goodwill’ Texas is the ultimate repository of Boras Goodwill after the ARod deal..

“Why do people assume that the 2006 Mariners are going to be above average defensively. With Betancourt, Beltre, and Ichiro, there are three good defensive players in the everyday line-up. I think Reed’s average, maybe a little better. But left field is a hole, and Lopez isn’t much to write home about at second. Sexson wasn’t very good at first base last year.” Dave, this is so, so cogent. Could you do some relative evaluation weighted by position with comments at least at a division level?

“Your guarantee is reckless. Bavasi may have heard of what Voros et al have looked at, but that doesn’t mean he’s up on current research. For one example, Bavasi doesn’t know about advanced defensive metrics different people are working on, like Davenport/MGL/etc.” Derek, would it be possible to project the 40 or 25 man roster, given the new contracts for two or three years, with guestimates on prospects accepted? It seems so much of this is driven by bb’s own contract and this is a poor man’s Gillick doing a this year or bust, excepting the Washburn signing as due to his long term relationship. Long winded way of saying this year may push the long term building of the club backward.

There does not seem to be any standard screen to pick these people. From a standard scouting perspective, in terms of “tools”, Washburn and Everett are far off their personal bests and far below any standard of good. Some of the scouting screens might say warning about each of them, such as consistentcy of fastball, as in he touched 90 but was 87-88 most of the game…ip/games has declined. For Everett, he’s just plain fat and can’t run any more…12 doubles 23 hrs is not going to be matched in this park…its perplexing cause the numbers point to the same thing. Why they would be signed, let alone at fairly rich levels in Everett’s case and the Washburn levels screams of complete desperation and incompetence.

Lawton is a good signing and makes the Everett thing look even more strange, unless he ends up in cf…

Yes, Millwood pitched over his head. That’s obvious.

But if you think a FIP below 4 is a pumpkin, well, you’ve got some pretty high standards. Millwood’s FIP was 5th best in the AL last year and his xFIP was 7th best.

Millwood’s not the best pitcher in the AL, and yes, there was a lot of luck (or non-repeatable skills, or whatever) involved in his winning the ERA title. But he’s so far from a pumpkin, it’s not even funny.