Comments on: Mariner lineup composition http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/02/26/mariner-lineup-composition/ Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion Fri, 10 Feb 2012 01:19:43 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: djw http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/02/26/mariner-lineup-composition/comment-page-1/#comment-88522 djw Tue, 28 Feb 2006 23:42:30 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=3329#comment-88522 C. Joseph (15) and e.c. (17): If Ichiro as VERY mediocre when hitting 300, why was he 6th for all ML RFs in VORP last year, with an EQA well above the league average for that position? C. Joseph (15) and e.c. (17): If Ichiro as VERY mediocre when hitting 300, why was he 6th for all ML RFs in VORP last year, with an EQA well above the league average for that position?

]]> By: C. Joseph http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/02/26/mariner-lineup-composition/comment-page-1/#comment-88485 C. Joseph Tue, 28 Feb 2006 01:12:53 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=3329#comment-88485 When Ichiro doesn't have an exceptionally high batting average, his OBP becomes middling and his SLG% drop well below what you want from a corner outfielder getting on at a 35% rate. I'd agree that he doesn't appear to be losing a step, but PECOTA's probably seeing his dramatic drop in batting average and not expecting much more out of him. When he bats .308, he doesn't possess the power or on-base skills to be particularly useful. What makes him good is that he's liable to bat well better than .308 most years. When Ichiro doesn’t have an exceptionally high batting average, his OBP becomes middling and his SLG% drop well below what you want from a corner outfielder getting on at a 35% rate. I’d agree that he doesn’t appear to be losing a step, but PECOTA’s probably seeing his dramatic drop in batting average and not expecting much more out of him. When he bats .308, he doesn’t possess the power or on-base skills to be particularly useful. What makes him good is that he’s liable to bat well better than .308 most years.

]]> By: Evan http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/02/26/mariner-lineup-composition/comment-page-1/#comment-88484 Evan Tue, 28 Feb 2006 00:20:06 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=3329#comment-88484 Projetion systems work really well with groups of players. Look at the Marcel system - you couldn't build a rougher system, and yet it projects groups of players spectacularly well. With individuals, there's more variance. There's even more variance with guys whose value is tied up in really volatile stats, like batting average. Projetion systems work really well with groups of players. Look at the Marcel system – you couldn’t build a rougher system, and yet it projects groups of players spectacularly well.

With individuals, there’s more variance. There’s even more variance with guys whose value is tied up in really volatile stats, like batting average.

]]> By: Mr. Egaas http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/02/26/mariner-lineup-composition/comment-page-1/#comment-88483 Mr. Egaas Mon, 27 Feb 2006 23:39:02 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=3329#comment-88483 PECOTA seems to hate guys who are on the wrong side of 30, and starts projecting big drop-offs in production. Although, Ichiro is such an amazing athelete and doesn't seem to be losing a step (from what I can see), so it's tough not to see him producing at the rate he has for several more years. PECOTA seems to hate guys who are on the wrong side of 30, and starts projecting big drop-offs in production.

Although, Ichiro is such an amazing athelete and doesn’t seem to be losing a step (from what I can see), so it’s tough not to see him producing at the rate he has for several more years.

]]> By: eponymous coward http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/02/26/mariner-lineup-composition/comment-page-1/#comment-88480 eponymous coward Mon, 27 Feb 2006 22:50:13 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=3329#comment-88480 No, but really. A .749 OPS (what PECOTA is projecting him for) is pretty bad for a corner OF. Granted, speed and defense helps, and Safeco hurts that, but the AL average OBP last year was .330, and average SLG was .424...a .754 OPS. Granted, Ichiro's OBP is more valuable than the missing SLG- but the average AL OBP and SLG also includes SS, 2B, CF and C that are leftwards on the defensive spectrum, where an awful lot of bad hitters live. Ichiro hitting a shade above .300 with those power/OBP numbers is a VERY mediocre hitter for a corner OF. It would also be his worst season ever, by a lot...so, basically, PECOTA hates him for some reason. No, but really. A .749 OPS (what PECOTA is projecting him for) is pretty bad for a corner OF. Granted, speed and defense helps, and Safeco hurts that, but the AL average OBP last year was .330, and average SLG was .424…a .754 OPS. Granted, Ichiro’s OBP is more valuable than the missing SLG- but the average AL OBP and SLG also includes SS, 2B, CF and C that are leftwards on the defensive spectrum, where an awful lot of bad hitters live.

Ichiro hitting a shade above .300 with those power/OBP numbers is a VERY mediocre hitter for a corner OF. It would also be his worst season ever, by a lot…so, basically, PECOTA hates him for some reason.

]]> By: jtopps http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/02/26/mariner-lineup-composition/comment-page-1/#comment-88472 jtopps Mon, 27 Feb 2006 21:29:02 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=3329#comment-88472 "If he bats something like .308. he’s just not a particularly good hitter." He may not be as valuable as the money we are paying him, or contributing what we really need from him, but i think its a stretch to say he is not a good hitter at a .308 clip. “If he bats something like .308. he’s just not a particularly good hitter.”

He may not be as valuable as the money we are paying him, or contributing what we really need from him, but i think its a stretch to say he is not a good hitter at a .308 clip.

]]> By: C. Joseph http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/02/26/mariner-lineup-composition/comment-page-1/#comment-88465 C. Joseph Mon, 27 Feb 2006 18:59:50 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=3329#comment-88465 Ichiro seventh isn't so mind-boggling when you consider his PECOTA projection is 308 / 343 / 406. Zips is a little more optimistic, with 319 / 366 / 429. Given that this lineup was constructed with PECOTA weighted mean projections, I don't think it's absurd to bat Ichiro 7th. If he bats something like .308. he's just not a particularly good hitter. Ichiro seventh isn’t so mind-boggling when you consider his PECOTA projection is 308 / 343 / 406. Zips is a little more optimistic, with 319 / 366 / 429. Given that this lineup was constructed with PECOTA weighted mean projections, I don’t think it’s absurd to bat Ichiro 7th. If he bats something like .308. he’s just not a particularly good hitter.

]]> By: Mat http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/02/26/mariner-lineup-composition/comment-page-1/#comment-88463 Mat Mon, 27 Feb 2006 18:52:25 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=3329#comment-88463 "And Ichrio 7th is mind-boggling, even if a computer thinks that is correct." Don't forget that PECOTA doesn't think Ichiro will have a great season next year. That's likely why he ends up so far down in the lineup, moreso than something funny with the lineup analysis tool. “And Ichrio 7th is mind-boggling, even if a computer thinks that is correct.”

Don’t forget that PECOTA doesn’t think Ichiro will have a great season next year. That’s likely why he ends up so far down in the lineup, moreso than something funny with the lineup analysis tool.

]]> By: C. Joseph http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/02/26/mariner-lineup-composition/comment-page-1/#comment-88462 C. Joseph Mon, 27 Feb 2006 18:51:42 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=3329#comment-88462 Ichiro could still go first to third on a single batting fifth. That said, I think this lineup tool is kinda fun for the off-season, but its biggest flaws are that it doesn't take into account the double play or L/R matchups (both of which have been said before, I guess), and I think those are both going to have real effects on the number of runs scored. It seems to want you to bat your best hitter second, which is something I've seen people advocating since Barry Bonds' 2002; it also makes the valid point that it may not be wise to wedge your worst hitter in the nine hole, right ahead of your best hitters. Other things (such as batting Everett third) seem counter-intuitive to the point of warranting further exploration, if you ask me. All in all, I'm not sure regressions are the best way to determine lineup construction. Not that can I can come up with a preferable alternative. Ichiro could still go first to third on a single batting fifth. That said, I think this lineup tool is kinda fun for the off-season, but its biggest flaws are that it doesn’t take into account the double play or L/R matchups (both of which have been said before, I guess), and I think those are both going to have real effects on the number of runs scored.

It seems to want you to bat your best hitter second, which is something I’ve seen people advocating since Barry Bonds’ 2002; it also makes the valid point that it may not be wise to wedge your worst hitter in the nine hole, right ahead of your best hitters. Other things (such as batting Everett third) seem counter-intuitive to the point of warranting further exploration, if you ask me.

All in all, I’m not sure regressions are the best way to determine lineup construction. Not that can I can come up with a preferable alternative.

]]> By: phil333 http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/02/26/mariner-lineup-composition/comment-page-1/#comment-88461 phil333 Mon, 27 Feb 2006 18:41:51 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=3329#comment-88461 I would also be really interested in seeing this done for past lineups. And Ichrio 7th is mind-boggling, even if a computer thinks that is correct. I would also be really interested in seeing this done for past lineups. And Ichrio 7th is mind-boggling, even if a computer thinks that is correct.

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