Understanding this, that’s what I meant by #3 — that it’s OK to use your best relief ace in that 8th-inning runners on, and save a perhaps lesser-ace for the 9th (with a lead that could potentially increase and a clean slate for the new pitcher). It’s more important to stop the bleeding when it starts than to save that ‘bandage’ for later. I was in no way implying that the M’s should expire their relief aces in the 7th and 8th, and leaving the 9th for a guy who can’t pitch.

Looking at your chart, we’d agree, then. A pitcher coming into the top of the 8th with a 1-run lead and runners on first and second would have a Leverage Index (LI) of 4.1, whereas a pitcher coming into the top of the 9th with a 1-run lead and no one on would have a LI of 2.6.

But, yeah, with all other things being equal, the 9th is more important than the 8th (and the 7th). Fortunately, I believe, that if managed correctly, the M’s have enough horses in the bullpen to deal with these different scenarios. It sounds like they might just explore that path — or at least that’s what I hope for in hearing Hargrove say “we’ll use the guy with the ‘hot hand’ for the ninth.”

Yeah, riiiiiiiight…

The Ms don’t have a bullpen issue if Putz closes. I think everyone will be pleasantly surprised by Sean Green. Livingston went out and through three 1-hit innings tonight. I would love to see Sherrill get more PT; yes, he kills lefties, but come _on_ Grover, he’s better than that. At least Lou would use Rhodes for several batters, or even have him pitch the 8th: that’s what George should be getting now. Sherrill has been under-utilized, I suspect, because the Ms have had too _many_ arms late rather than too few. Give Guapo Woods’ innings, and all will be well (enough).

The M’s activating his option and then turning around and trading him…well, that’s a pretty lousy thing to do to a player (as it removes his choice as to where to go, as opposed to free agency), and it’s the sort of thing that has negative impact going forward in player relations. Bavasi has a rep of being an upfront and honest guy, and burning that on trading a well-liked veteran doesn’t strike me as a wise move.

I suspect had the M’s not exercised their team option that Eddie would have walked away (he was making noises like that would happen when the M’s hadn’t contacted him after the offseason)… which, hindsight being 20/20, might have been best, but Guardado wasn’t an obviously irrational signing at the time. Consider that Esteban Loaiza, someone Dave pumped for, is on the DL… again, hindsight is 20/20. Worst case, Guardado’s gone next year and is off the books, as opposed to some other poor decisions (Cirillo, Spiezio) or albatross contracts at the end of a deal (Boone).

1. No, that’s not correct. Given the same score/base/out configuration, it’s better in the 9th. But, if you want to say 9th with a 3-run lead compared to 8th with a 1-run lead, then yes, you are right.

3. No, that’s not correct.

You might like this article I wrote:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/crucial-situations
as well as the link at the end of the article.

Nice ERA. Good conversion rate with Saves. Everything the M’s needed to make a deal with another club, get some prospects that could contribute~ and move on.

Instead, the M’s decided to rebuff any trade attempts. Opting to keep him on a team that will lose 85-95 games this year.

The shoulder was always suspect, just a “matter of time” before he became a non-desirable pitcher.
Unfortunately, that non-desirable players is on our roster, and the M’s probably couldn’t trade him for a run-down pair of cleats.

“We’ll try to match up late in the ballgame and go with the guy that has got the hot hand,” he said. “We’re not going to designate any one person to take over that one spot. It will be a combination of all of them.”

Sounds promising….

My thoughts. Eddie blew the save last night. What was his line? 2Ks? Is he still striking out guys? Is it the random homers that have been killing him lately rather than the total loss of control and inability to retire anyone he was showing in the first 2/3 weeks of the season.

He’s still a “proven closer” who just had a rocky stretch and needs to “find himself.” Possibly, he has a nagging injury from Spring Training and needs to get healthy. So, if he throws a few scorless innings of middle releif, while Putz or Soriano saves a few games, well, suddenly the M’s have two “proven closers” and can afford to deal one, probably the one the fickle fans soured on early in the season when he was struggling. So, when Mr. Bavasi calls me to offer Eddie in exchange for some interesting prospect, I jump on it, like a cat on a cactus.

A dumb cat perhaps, but they do exist.

All that assumes Eddie can string together a few decent outings in the next few weeks. Pitching an inning every three or four games, that’s entirely possible given the small sample size.

Yes, I’m an optimist. But hey, sometimes the sky is bright blue and cloudless. Look out the window if you don’t believe…