Normally, I find the “we found a flaw in his delivery” or “he was tipping his pitches” arguments to be a load of hooey. But in this case…

Gil came back from labrum surgery. He was worked ridiculously hard as part of “Melvin’s Folly” (ie, using the same 5 starters all season). He lacks stamina. How many times have we seen him go 4 good innings, then blow up in the fifth or sixth? I’m no expert, but his ESPN charts show a really really bad pitcher after 75 pitches thrown (2003-2005).

In short, Gil Meche lacks arm strength, and gets tired. (Which, I think, is why some have suggested an Eck-like move to the bullpen.) So, maybe there is something to working a bit less, and being fresher for the game. This year, he gets stronger through 90 pitches, before dropping off the cliff.

Anyway, I’ve heard some reference to this, but not much. Any thoughts? Personally, I’ve always been a fan of the Leo Mazzone thro-lots-of-soft-stuff between games approach, but maybe this works for Gil.

Is this at all real, or just some more “he was jerking his head” baloney?

Line @ Arizona 6/29: 7 IP/1 ER/1 BB/4 K
Line @ San Diego 6/23: 5.2 IP/1 ER/2 BB/6 K

If Gilbert has turned a corner in the eyes of scouts, he may have serious value to an NL team (especially in the NL West). So to the poster who said Gilbert hasn’t been all that great on the road, you are half right. He’s been good on the road against the NL teams he’s faced.

Overall, his line against the NL at home and on the road is pretty darned good: 29.1 IP/6 ER/5 BB/24 K = 1.84 ERA

Again, I know it’s small sample size, but it is a glaring plus in his overall line for the year.

Exactly! And that’s what I meant when I called Meche a replacement level pitcher. Players should come with a disclaimer like mutual funds — past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is sort of like Washburn and the 3.20 ERA last year. Yes, Washburn had a 3.20 ERA and a 3.20 ERA is pretty good. And yes, Meche has an ERA of 3.83 and has been well above replacement level this year.

In Washburn’s case, his peripherals (notably strand rate) indicated that this wasn’t repeatable. For Meche, part of my pesimism is his non-sustainable HR/FB rate and his FIP and xFIP which are much worse than his ERA. But equally important is his history. Not only were 2004 and 2005 near replacement level — remember that pitching in Safeco with the Mariners defense behind improves his stats — but so were April and May of 2006. We’re basically talking about one good month where 3 of his starts were against terrible offenses (Kansas City, San Diego, and Los Angeles). To be fair, for the season Meche has faced tougher hitters on average than the other Mariners starters. Still I’d like to see some sustained results before I believe this is a “new Gil Meche” and not a 6-7 inning starter with an ERA of 5+.

Easily? Meche’s 4.32 FIP is currently 48th amongst all qualified starters in baseball. That sets him barely in the top 50. Meche’s 4.66 xFIP puts him at 57th amongst all qualified starters in baseball, not even in the top 50.

Plus, if we’re going to rank him in the top 50, we have to consider how many innings he’s going to be available to pitch, and he’s currently on pace to pitch 50+ more innings than he did last year or the year before. I haven’t specifically researched it, but I’m guessing the track record of guys who have been injured in the past and increase their workload by 50+ innings in one season is probably not a very healthy track record.

And all of this assumes that Meche’s current 4.32 FIP is a better indicator of how he’ll pitch in the second half than his 5.00-ish FIP from the last three years, which I think is a fairly shaky assumption. Meche has been pitching better so far this year, but I still haven’t seen any compelling reasons to think he’ll sustain even the improvement in his peripherals.

It’s not all that huge.

To add to this point, with Meche specifically, his ’03 to ’05 splits have him at a 4.73 FIP at home and a 5.24 FIP on the road. In ’06 those splits are 3.40 FIP at home and 5.47 FIP on the road.

Meche hasn’t shown anything close to a 2-run home/road split in his ERA or FIP or whatever in the past, so we’ve got 450+ IP that say he’s not special home/road-wise and 110 IP that might say he is. I’ll grant that his splits this year are weird, but my money’s still on the part that says Meche isn’t special.

Also, the 2004 comparison is not apt. During the 2004 “good Meche” period, Meche reduced his walk rate to a ridiculously low level, but his K rate wasn’t nearly what it has been lately.

I think it’s obvious to most people that Meche can’t sustain a sub-3.00 ERA, but can he put up a 3.5 ERA? Maybe, if Hargrove doesn’t pitch his shoulder off. I think that’s what’s really worth considering.