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	<title>Comments on: The M&#8217;s in Pinto&#8217;s defensive model</title>
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	<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/11/16/the-ms-in-pintos-defensive-model/</link>
	<description>Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion</description>
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		<title>By: msb</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/11/16/the-ms-in-pintos-defensive-model/comment-page-1/#comment-153765</link>
		<dc:creator>msb</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Nov 2006 23:14:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2006/11/16/the-ms-in-pintos-defensive-model/#comment-153765</guid>
		<description>but they/we didn&#039;t appreciate and love him while he was so horrible! He should have been nurtured!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>but they/we didn&#8217;t appreciate and love him while he was so horrible! He should have been nurtured!</p>
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		<title>By: DMZ</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/11/16/the-ms-in-pintos-defensive-model/comment-page-1/#comment-153751</link>
		<dc:creator>DMZ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Nov 2006 21:27:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2006/11/16/the-ms-in-pintos-defensive-model/#comment-153751</guid>
		<description>I think the classy thing to say is &quot;I&#039;m glad the Cardinals say enough to give me a chance, and I&#039;m happy I&#039;ve been able to reward them for that.&quot; Or something similar.

There&#039;s no reason to give the franchise he was so awful for the finger, as if it&#039;s the M&#039;s fault he was abjectly horrible while he was here. His performance already did that. Let it be.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think the classy thing to say is &#8220;I&#8217;m glad the Cardinals say enough to give me a chance, and I&#8217;m happy I&#8217;ve been able to reward them for that.&#8221; Or something similar.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s no reason to give the franchise he was so awful for the finger, as if it&#8217;s the M&#8217;s fault he was abjectly horrible while he was here. His performance already did that. Let it be.</p>
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		<title>By: The Ancient Mariner</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/11/16/the-ms-in-pintos-defensive-model/comment-page-1/#comment-153750</link>
		<dc:creator>The Ancient Mariner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Nov 2006 21:22:15 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Yeah, watching Glenallen Hill go after a fly ball was like watching a squirrel trying to cross an eight-lane freeway.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yeah, watching Glenallen Hill go after a fly ball was like watching a squirrel trying to cross an eight-lane freeway.</p>
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		<title>By: patl</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/11/16/the-ms-in-pintos-defensive-model/comment-page-1/#comment-153745</link>
		<dc:creator>patl</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Nov 2006 21:10:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2006/11/16/the-ms-in-pintos-defensive-model/#comment-153745</guid>
		<description>David writes:
&lt;blockquote&gt;I wonder if Glenallen Hill would have a negative range&lt;/blockquote&gt;

I continue buying Baseball Prospectus hoping that somebody will top the description of his defense one year:

&quot;akin to watching a gaffed haddock surface for air.&quot;

Wait, &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenallen_Hill&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Wikipedia credits Brian Price&lt;/a&gt; with that quote.  Whoever did it, that&#039;s classic.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>David writes:</p>
<blockquote><p>I wonder if Glenallen Hill would have a negative range</p></blockquote>
<p>I continue buying Baseball Prospectus hoping that somebody will top the description of his defense one year:</p>
<p>&#8220;akin to watching a gaffed haddock surface for air.&#8221;</p>
<p>Wait, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenallen_Hill" rel="nofollow">Wikipedia credits Brian Price</a> with that quote.  Whoever did it, that&#8217;s classic.</p>
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		<title>By: marc w</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/11/16/the-ms-in-pintos-defensive-model/comment-page-1/#comment-153742</link>
		<dc:creator>marc w</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Nov 2006 20:45:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2006/11/16/the-ms-in-pintos-defensive-model/#comment-153742</guid>
		<description>Re: Betancourt 
So he&#039;ll start to decline precisely when the new defensive metrics like UZR have enough data to start recognizing that he doesn&#039;t actually, you know, suck.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re: Betancourt<br />
So he&#8217;ll start to decline precisely when the new defensive metrics like UZR have enough data to start recognizing that he doesn&#8217;t actually, you know, suck.</p>
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		<title>By: Mike Snow</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/11/16/the-ms-in-pintos-defensive-model/comment-page-1/#comment-153738</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike Snow</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Nov 2006 19:39:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2006/11/16/the-ms-in-pintos-defensive-model/#comment-153738</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;So, if Yuniesky Betancourt follows a normal decline, heâ€™ll cease to be an elite defender in about five years.&lt;/i&gt;

Coincidentally, that&#039;s exactly how long it will take before he starts winning Gold Gloves that he will then no longer deserve.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>So, if Yuniesky Betancourt follows a normal decline, heâ€™ll cease to be an elite defender in about five years.</i></p>
<p>Coincidentally, that&#8217;s exactly how long it will take before he starts winning Gold Gloves that he will then no longer deserve.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/11/16/the-ms-in-pintos-defensive-model/comment-page-1/#comment-153737</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Nov 2006 17:19:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2006/11/16/the-ms-in-pintos-defensive-model/#comment-153737</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;I know replacement level for offensive metrics is generally considered to be 85% of league average. What is the consensus for replacement level defensively?&lt;/em&gt;

The average defensive value of a replacement level player is just about the same as the defensive value of any other player.  In other words, there is a massive pool of players who can play league average ML defense, but only part of that pool can also hit.  The guys who can hit make it to the majors, and the guys who can&#039;t hang out in Triple-A.  

At some positions (notably first base), the average replacement level player is actually slightly better than average fielder.  

This is why, when we&#039;re doing player comparisons, we use an offensive metric that is runs above replacement and a defensive metric that is runs above average.  

If we really wanted to, we could try to calculate defensive replacement level as the point a team is no longer willing to put up with a player and moves him to an easier position.  I&#039;m guessing, in most cases, this point is around -20 runs.  But some teams (like the Reds) keep running out -20 defenders and not even blinking, so, it would really be different for each club.  

&lt;em&gt;And my suspicion (groundless, speculative, and from my bottom) is that defensive performance will have a very different curve than offensive performance. In fact, I bet guys peak defensively very young - 25 maybe - and continue a downward slope thereafter.&lt;/em&gt;

Yea.  Tango and MGL have done a bunch of work on player aging patterns, and generally, defense peaks at age 24.  MGL has found that a player generally loses about one run defensively per year after 24 through his early 30s.  So, if Yuniesky Betancourt follows a normal decline, he&#039;ll cease to be an elite defender in about five years.  It&#039;s one of the reasons why I&#039;ve argued that this is probably about as valuable as he&#039;s ever going to be.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>I know replacement level for offensive metrics is generally considered to be 85% of league average. What is the consensus for replacement level defensively?</em></p>
<p>The average defensive value of a replacement level player is just about the same as the defensive value of any other player.  In other words, there is a massive pool of players who can play league average ML defense, but only part of that pool can also hit.  The guys who can hit make it to the majors, and the guys who can&#8217;t hang out in Triple-A.  </p>
<p>At some positions (notably first base), the average replacement level player is actually slightly better than average fielder.  </p>
<p>This is why, when we&#8217;re doing player comparisons, we use an offensive metric that is runs above replacement and a defensive metric that is runs above average.  </p>
<p>If we really wanted to, we could try to calculate defensive replacement level as the point a team is no longer willing to put up with a player and moves him to an easier position.  I&#8217;m guessing, in most cases, this point is around -20 runs.  But some teams (like the Reds) keep running out -20 defenders and not even blinking, so, it would really be different for each club.  </p>
<p><em>And my suspicion (groundless, speculative, and from my bottom) is that defensive performance will have a very different curve than offensive performance. In fact, I bet guys peak defensively very young &#8211; 25 maybe &#8211; and continue a downward slope thereafter.</em></p>
<p>Yea.  Tango and MGL have done a bunch of work on player aging patterns, and generally, defense peaks at age 24.  MGL has found that a player generally loses about one run defensively per year after 24 through his early 30s.  So, if Yuniesky Betancourt follows a normal decline, he&#8217;ll cease to be an elite defender in about five years.  It&#8217;s one of the reasons why I&#8217;ve argued that this is probably about as valuable as he&#8217;s ever going to be.</p>
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		<title>By: CCW</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/11/16/the-ms-in-pintos-defensive-model/comment-page-1/#comment-153736</link>
		<dc:creator>CCW</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Nov 2006 16:27:38 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Interesting to me is that, even once we are able to measure individual defensive performance, there will still be the matter of predicting individual defensive performance going forward... And my suspicion (groundless, speculative, and from my bottom) is that defensive performance will have a very different curve than offensive performance.  In fact, I bet guys peak defensively very young - 25 maybe - and continue a downward slope thereafter.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Interesting to me is that, even once we are able to measure individual defensive performance, there will still be the matter of predicting individual defensive performance going forward&#8230; And my suspicion (groundless, speculative, and from my bottom) is that defensive performance will have a very different curve than offensive performance.  In fact, I bet guys peak defensively very young &#8211; 25 maybe &#8211; and continue a downward slope thereafter.</p>
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		<title>By: David*</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/11/16/the-ms-in-pintos-defensive-model/comment-page-1/#comment-153735</link>
		<dc:creator>David*</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Nov 2006 16:19:33 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I wonder if Glenallen Hill would have a negative range</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I wonder if Glenallen Hill would have a negative range</p>
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		<title>By: Typical Idiot Fan</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/11/16/the-ms-in-pintos-defensive-model/comment-page-1/#comment-153734</link>
		<dc:creator>Typical Idiot Fan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Nov 2006 16:00:12 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I&#039;m not sure you should worry about replacement level defense, to be honest.  Everybody can be replaced defensively... except the DH.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not sure you should worry about replacement level defense, to be honest.  Everybody can be replaced defensively&#8230; except the DH.</p>
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