Comments on: ZIPS projects the M’s http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/ Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion Thu, 09 Feb 2012 22:05:17 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: jamier http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/comment-page-1/#comment-161401 jamier Thu, 04 Jan 2007 01:54:58 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/#comment-161401 I think the <a href="http://baseballprospectus.com/radio/" rel="nofollow">Baseball Prospectus podcast</a> is pretty good. They don't talk about much of anything they usually do on BP but at least it's listenable. Every other baseball podcast I've listened to sounds just like ambient noise ( I think the Baseball Prospectus podcast is pretty good. They don’t talk about much of anything they usually do on BP but at least it’s listenable. Every other baseball podcast I’ve listened to sounds just like ambient noise (

]]> By: JMB http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/comment-page-1/#comment-161376 JMB Thu, 04 Jan 2007 01:12:19 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/#comment-161376 I think WFB could also homer off Washburn, but again, that's a problem. I think WFB could also homer off Washburn, but again, that’s a problem.

]]> By: DMZ http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/comment-page-1/#comment-161357 DMZ Thu, 04 Jan 2007 00:29:48 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/#comment-161357 I'm a little surprised it's so optimistic about Mateo. I'd rather have Huber than Mateo for next year, but there's a substantial difference in their performance there. I’m a little surprised it’s so optimistic about Mateo. I’d rather have Huber than Mateo for next year, but there’s a substantial difference in their performance there.

]]> By: msb http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/comment-page-1/#comment-161352 msb Wed, 03 Jan 2007 23:42:09 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/#comment-161352 <blockquote>At least we can look forward to another homer from WFB.</blockquote> are we playing the Giants this year?

At least we can look forward to another homer from WFB.

are we playing the Giants this year?

]]> By: Jed C http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/comment-page-1/#comment-161346 Jed C Wed, 03 Jan 2007 23:25:53 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/#comment-161346 Wouldn't WFB have to face Zito to hit the HR? IIRC, the M's are playing the NL Central this year, the East next year, so we'd have to wait until 09 for the next WFB HR. Wouldn’t WFB have to face Zito to hit the HR? IIRC, the M’s are playing the NL Central this year, the East next year, so we’d have to wait until 09 for the next WFB HR.

]]> By: sparky http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/comment-page-1/#comment-161343 sparky Wed, 03 Jan 2007 23:20:52 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/#comment-161343 FYI, here's a link to the projections from last year http://tinyurl.com/tjpml I'm guessing a lot of the error in these systems is driven by players at the margins, but it looks like it did pretty well with the M's more prominent hitters last year. Obviously not the same as running a correlation but still interesting. It was right on with Beltre and Ichiro. Nailed Sexson's AVG (didn't predict the power/OBP drop), got Lopez's walk rate and SLG right (but underestimated his AVG), and underestimated Raul. I'm no good with formats, but here's a few comparisons Ichiro Actual: .322/.370/.416 Zips: .319/.366/.429 Sexson Actual: .264/.338/.504 Zips: .264/.373/.533 Beltre Actual: .268/.328/.465 Zips: .269/.321/.463 Johjima Actual: .291/.332/.451 Zips: .273/.342/.480 Lopez Actual: .282/.319/.405 Zips: .257/.291/.402 Ibanze Actual: .289/.353/.516 Zips: .277/.346/.440 FYI, here’s a link to the projections from last year

http://tinyurl.com/tjpml

I’m guessing a lot of the error in these systems is driven by players at the margins, but it looks like it did pretty well with the M’s more prominent hitters last year. Obviously not the same as running a correlation but still interesting.

It was right on with Beltre and Ichiro. Nailed Sexson’s AVG (didn’t predict the power/OBP drop), got Lopez’s walk rate and SLG right (but underestimated his AVG), and underestimated Raul.

I’m no good with formats, but here’s a few comparisons

Ichiro
Actual: .322/.370/.416
Zips: .319/.366/.429

Sexson
Actual: .264/.338/.504
Zips: .264/.373/.533

Beltre
Actual: .268/.328/.465
Zips: .269/.321/.463

Johjima
Actual: .291/.332/.451
Zips: .273/.342/.480

Lopez
Actual: .282/.319/.405
Zips: .257/.291/.402

Ibanze
Actual: .289/.353/.516
Zips: .277/.346/.440

]]> By: A Bag Of Beans! Wooo! http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/comment-page-1/#comment-161342 A Bag Of Beans! Wooo! Wed, 03 Jan 2007 23:19:41 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/#comment-161342 <i>At least we can look forward to another homer from WFB.</i> We should have a contest. Guess which game Willie hits his home run in. Closest guest wins a prize. At least we can look forward to another homer from WFB.

We should have a contest. Guess which game Willie hits his home run in. Closest guest wins a prize.

]]> By: terrybenish http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/comment-page-1/#comment-161336 terrybenish Wed, 03 Jan 2007 23:00:16 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/#comment-161336 Re: Guillen and great defense. I sure hope he can throw, this soon after TJ surgery, let alone throw well. Re: Guillen and great defense. I sure hope he can throw, this soon after TJ surgery, let alone throw well.

]]> By: Josh http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/comment-page-1/#comment-161335 Josh Wed, 03 Jan 2007 22:48:08 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/#comment-161335 #14, those numbers aren’t as bad if you take the park into context, and Johjima’s a catcher. Yeah, I like Johjima and Beltre's all right with defense considered. Just pointing out the considerable number in that range (surprisingly with the "star" at a non-premium defensive position being paid the most). #14, those numbers aren’t as bad if you take the park into context, and Johjima’s a catcher.

Yeah, I like Johjima and Beltre’s all right with defense considered. Just pointing out the considerable number in that range (surprisingly with the “star” at a non-premium defensive position being paid the most).

]]> By: chrisisasavage http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/comment-page-1/#comment-161334 chrisisasavage Wed, 03 Jan 2007 22:43:37 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/01/03/zips-projects-the-ms/#comment-161334 #14, those numbers aren't as bad if you take the park into context, and Johjima's a catcher. #14, those numbers aren’t as bad if you take the park into context, and Johjima’s a catcher.

]]>