Comments on: How the M’s Can Win the World Series @ BP http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/ Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion Fri, 10 Feb 2012 01:19:43 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: rick m http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/comment-page-1/#comment-167427 rick m Thu, 22 Mar 2007 22:51:07 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/#comment-167427 CrewM, I think Geoff's making stuff up. He writes, "Where some fans are concerned..." Really? What fans? Why not name some names, e.g., "I spent some time talking to fans today. 'Willie's my favorite player,' said Billy Bob Brown of Lacey, Washington, 'and he's so hot right now, he should be our new leadoff hitter!' Well, Billy Bob, according to Manager Mike Hargrove, it isn't as easy as that." Is Baker really running into fans down there who think like this? I think he's making assumptions - not really doing any real journalism here. Like Kelley's piece its our mythical "Arodhater" making his appearance. I'm sure Geoff can find a fan or two who thinks like this - most likely some 10 year olds. But what I smell here is more of this fear among the paid media that their opinions are becoming irrelevant and so they need to create some straw men to tear down. Why do I think this? Because I don't read any articles by these guys regarding how intelligent and well informed the average Seattle fan is becoming. It's easier to paint the impression that the fans are a bunch of bozos who need smart baseball writers to walk them through the obvious things about training camp. It's lazy journalism that creates its own reality: fans need us to know how to think. And I read it in a paper that still struggles to find a place to put OBP in the daily statistics. CrewM,

I think Geoff’s making stuff up. He writes, “Where some fans are concerned…” Really? What fans? Why not name some names, e.g.,

“I spent some time talking to fans today. ‘Willie’s my favorite player,’ said Billy Bob Brown of Lacey, Washington, ‘and he’s so hot right now, he should be our new leadoff hitter!’ Well, Billy Bob, according to Manager Mike Hargrove, it isn’t as easy as that.”

Is Baker really running into fans down there who think like this? I think he’s making assumptions – not really doing any real journalism here. Like Kelley’s piece its our mythical “Arodhater” making his appearance. I’m sure Geoff can find a fan or two who thinks like this – most likely some 10 year olds. But what I smell here is more of this fear among the paid media that their opinions are becoming irrelevant and so they need to create some straw men to tear down.

Why do I think this? Because I don’t read any articles by these guys regarding how intelligent and well informed the average Seattle fan is becoming. It’s easier to paint the impression that the fans are a bunch of bozos who need smart baseball writers to walk them through the obvious things about training camp. It’s lazy journalism that creates its own reality: fans need us to know how to think. And I read it in a paper that still struggles to find a place to put OBP in the daily statistics.

]]> By: Sidi http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/comment-page-1/#comment-167203 Sidi Tue, 20 Mar 2007 04:51:31 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/#comment-167203 I think we're all afraid about what a former employer says/feels about us. I'm still terrified about what one of mine says, and it has limited my aggressiveness in trying to settle my life. And I'm not trained in quite as insular employment as sports journalism. It probably wasn't a direct dig. I think we’re all afraid about what a former employer says/feels about us. I’m still terrified about what one of mine says, and it has limited my aggressiveness in trying to settle my life. And I’m not trained in quite as insular employment as sports journalism. It probably wasn’t a direct dig.

]]> By: Oly Rainiers Fan http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/comment-page-1/#comment-167196 Oly Rainiers Fan Tue, 20 Mar 2007 02:57:52 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/#comment-167196 #12, perhaps. Maybe they're using a methodology that's just way less accurate than PECOTA. You know, like the M's methodology would say Player A is performing at 50% while PECOTA would peg that same performance from Player A to be a 90%. And then, after trades and acquisitions don't work out, all those meetings in Safeco are filled with people saying things like 'I don't understand, we're going with the 50/50 chance yet it always seems like it just doesn't work out'.... (So much bleed between this and the trade evaluation thread.) #12, perhaps. Maybe they’re using a methodology that’s just way less accurate than PECOTA. You know, like the M’s methodology would say Player A is performing at 50% while PECOTA would peg that same performance from Player A to be a 90%.

And then, after trades and acquisitions don’t work out, all those meetings in Safeco are filled with people saying things like ‘I don’t understand, we’re going with the 50/50 chance yet it always seems like it just doesn’t work out’….

(So much bleed between this and the trade evaluation thread.)

]]> By: Ralph Malph http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/comment-page-1/#comment-167194 Ralph Malph Tue, 20 Mar 2007 02:37:23 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/#comment-167194 I'm not defending their point of view, but I'm sure the M's would say they simply don't accept the PECOTA projections; they make their own projections and they have a different methodology. I’m not defending their point of view, but I’m sure the M’s would say they simply don’t accept the PECOTA projections; they make their own projections and they have a different methodology.

]]> By: Evan http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/comment-page-1/#comment-167193 Evan Tue, 20 Mar 2007 02:30:39 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/#comment-167193 What caught my eye in the artcle was the tagline at the bottom that identified you as "an author of Baseball Prospectus". I figured they'd at least have pointed readers here. What caught my eye in the artcle was the tagline at the bottom that identified you as “an author of Baseball Prospectus”. I figured they’d at least have pointed readers here.

]]> By: carcinogen http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/comment-page-1/#comment-167182 carcinogen Tue, 20 Mar 2007 00:38:51 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/#comment-167182 Thought exercise of the day: imagine the collective M's front office as a single contestant on "Deal or No Deal." Thought exercise of the day: imagine the collective M’s front office as a single contestant on “Deal or No Deal.”

]]> By: carcinogen http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/comment-page-1/#comment-167181 carcinogen Tue, 20 Mar 2007 00:36:53 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/#comment-167181 Jim, its even more insidious. We all want 90% PECOTA from all the players, the M's expect it and plan around it. Jim, its even more insidious. We all want 90% PECOTA from all the players, the M’s expect it and plan around it.

]]> By: CCW http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/comment-page-1/#comment-167178 CCW Mon, 19 Mar 2007 23:53:13 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/#comment-167178 We saw in 2001 what can happen when an entire team does hit its 90th percentile PECOTA's, though. I don't have a copy of my BP 2001 handy, but something tells me Boone, Abbott, Sele, Cameron, Ichiro, MacLemore, Javier, Rhodes, Nelson, Wilson, Bell, and Kaz, all were around the 90% range. I've always had a suspicion that 2001 has been biting us ever since it ended. We saw in 2001 what can happen when an entire team does hit its 90th percentile PECOTA’s, though. I don’t have a copy of my BP 2001 handy, but something tells me Boone, Abbott, Sele, Cameron, Ichiro, MacLemore, Javier, Rhodes, Nelson, Wilson, Bell, and Kaz, all were around the 90% range. I’ve always had a suspicion that 2001 has been biting us ever since it ended.

]]> By: Cynical Optimist http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/comment-page-1/#comment-167176 Cynical Optimist Mon, 19 Mar 2007 23:42:21 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/#comment-167176 Well said, Jim. Well said, Jim.

]]> By: Jim Thomsen http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/comment-page-1/#comment-167175 Jim Thomsen Mon, 19 Mar 2007 23:36:38 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/03/19/how-the-ms-can-win-the-world-series-bp/#comment-167175 What's depressing about Derek's acute analysis is that much of the same reasoning could have been applied to 2006: — They want Carl Everett's 90th percentile PECOTA projection; — They want Jarrod Washburn's 90th percentile PECOTA projection; — They want Jeremy Reed's 90th percentile PECOTA projection. And on and on and on. It's depressing that the Mariners haven't learned at all from last year — that they can't round up a bunch of aging mediocrities whose best years are well in their pasts and skew their analyses to support a contorted belief that "if they do what they were once capable of, we can win." It shows that the institutional thinking in the front office hasn't evolved a bit since the signings of Rich Aurilia and Scott Spiezio. So if Batista, Weaver, Reitsma, Vidro, etc. fail, I guess it'll be the players' fault for not performing as the Mariners hoped they would ... and not the Mariners' fault for hoping for something that was never likely to happen. That is awesomely powerful denial at work, folks. What’s depressing about Derek’s acute analysis is that much of the same reasoning could have been applied to 2006:

— They want Carl Everett’s 90th percentile PECOTA projection;

— They want Jarrod Washburn’s 90th percentile PECOTA projection;

— They want Jeremy Reed’s 90th percentile PECOTA projection.

And on and on and on. It’s depressing that the Mariners haven’t learned at all from last year — that they can’t round up a bunch of aging mediocrities whose best years are well in their pasts and skew their analyses to support a contorted belief that “if they do what they were once capable of, we can win.” It shows that the institutional thinking in the front office hasn’t evolved a bit since the signings of Rich Aurilia and Scott Spiezio.

So if Batista, Weaver, Reitsma, Vidro, etc. fail, I guess it’ll be the players’ fault for not performing as the Mariners hoped they would … and not the Mariners’ fault for hoping for something that was never likely to happen.

That is awesomely powerful denial at work, folks.

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