Comments on: A brief statistical comment http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/ Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion Fri, 10 Feb 2012 01:19:43 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: Josh http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/comment-page-2/#comment-173618 Josh Wed, 18 Apr 2007 01:58:49 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/#comment-173618 What's helpful about not making an out over 47% more often? Well, it's probably 50%+ considering DPs. Anyway. What’s helpful about not making an out over 47% more often? Well, it’s probably 50%+ considering DPs. Anyway.

]]> By: _David_ http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/comment-page-2/#comment-173616 _David_ Wed, 18 Apr 2007 01:48:45 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/#comment-173616 76: just for fun, .379 is more helpful than .257 76: just for fun, .379 is more helpful than .257

]]> By: Evan http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/comment-page-2/#comment-173591 Evan Tue, 17 Apr 2007 20:48:24 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/#comment-173591 Those 120 points of OBP are worth a ton. <blockquote>Ah, I remember the stories from when Cirillo would work with the hitting coach, and they thought they’d solved his problems… those were the days.</blockquote> I remember when Cirillo would say he could only ever succeed in Safeco if he put on 25 lb. of muscle (ie. steroids). Those 120 points of OBP are worth a ton.

Ah, I remember the stories from when Cirillo would work with the hitting coach, and they thought they’d solved his problems… those were the days.

I remember when Cirillo would say he could only ever succeed in Safeco if he put on 25 lb. of muscle (ie. steroids).

]]> By: Slippery Elmer http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/comment-page-2/#comment-173562 Slippery Elmer Tue, 17 Apr 2007 08:57:20 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/#comment-173562 If Small Sample Size Theatre is the prevailing norm, Snelling's 0-4 tonight makes the comparison: Snelling -- .217 .379 .391 Vidro -- .212 .257 .394 /Not saying anything. Just reporting. If Small Sample Size Theatre is the prevailing norm, Snelling’s 0-4 tonight makes the comparison:
Snelling — .217 .379 .391
Vidro — .212 .257 .394

/Not saying anything. Just reporting.

]]> By: Red Apple http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/comment-page-2/#comment-173535 Red Apple Tue, 17 Apr 2007 03:47:22 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/#comment-173535 The rope, though belongs to Bavasi and Hargrove. Who can blame Vidro for signing a long-term contract when someone waves money in his face? The rope, though belongs to Bavasi and Hargrove. Who can blame Vidro for signing a long-term contract when someone waves money in his face?

]]> By: Red Apple http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/comment-page-2/#comment-173534 Red Apple Tue, 17 Apr 2007 03:44:45 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/#comment-173534 <blockquote>At this point, my guess is unless Vidro is showing me to be off base and he’s hitting like it’s 2000-2001 again, he gets replaced in the starting lineup by the All-Star break, whether it’s by Broussard or calling up Jones, or whatever.</blockquote> Hope you're right. But this front office just hates to admit its mistakes. I see them giving him at least a year's worth of rope. They seem to be more concerned about saving face than making the smart move...even when that face has egg all over it.

At this point, my guess is unless Vidro is showing me to be off base and he’s hitting like it’s 2000-2001 again, he gets replaced in the starting lineup by the All-Star break, whether it’s by Broussard or calling up Jones, or whatever.

Hope you’re right. But this front office just hates to admit its mistakes. I see them giving him at least a year’s worth of rope. They seem to be more concerned about saving face than making the smart move…even when that face has egg all over it.

]]> By: Oly Rainiers Fan http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/comment-page-2/#comment-173526 Oly Rainiers Fan Tue, 17 Apr 2007 01:54:31 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/#comment-173526 Not for nothing but there are a couple-three game worn Ms' Doyle jerseys for sale at the Safeco team store. Around $200 per. For those with serious man-crushes. I think any comparison between Vidro and Everett has to include Doyle, as he was the logical DH for this next year. I'm not sure though that even the Nats are really going to give the kid a chance so that we could see over the larger sample size what he could really do (like, you know, if he stayed healthy over the course of an entire ML season, and got playing time and all). Not for nothing but there are a couple-three game worn Ms’ Doyle jerseys for sale at the Safeco team store. Around $200 per. For those with serious man-crushes.

I think any comparison between Vidro and Everett has to include Doyle, as he was the logical DH for this next year. I’m not sure though that even the Nats are really going to give the kid a chance so that we could see over the larger sample size what he could really do (like, you know, if he stayed healthy over the course of an entire ML season, and got playing time and all).

]]> By: eponymous coward http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/comment-page-2/#comment-173515 eponymous coward Tue, 17 Apr 2007 00:30:55 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/#comment-173515 <i>Even if he does hit, say, .300 with minimal power and a lot of GIDP, will that be good out of a DH / batting 3rd combo?</i> I'm more than a bit skeptical that an extremely slow DH with groundball tendencies and no particular history of any power, who also hits in a tough ballpark is going to hit .300. I'll think he will be doing well if he gets to .270/.330/.400 with 20 GIDP over a full season, which would be as bad in it's own way as Everett was for us in 2006 (the small bump in OBP and SLG getting negated by the increased GIDP). At this point, my guess is unless Vidro is showing me to be off base and he's hitting like it's 2000-2001 again, he gets replaced in the starting lineup by the All-Star break, whether it's by Broussard or calling up Jones, or whatever. Even if he does hit, say, .300 with minimal power and a lot of GIDP, will that be good out of a DH / batting 3rd combo?

I’m more than a bit skeptical that an extremely slow DH with groundball tendencies and no particular history of any power, who also hits in a tough ballpark is going to hit .300. I’ll think he will be doing well if he gets to .270/.330/.400 with 20 GIDP over a full season, which would be as bad in it’s own way as Everett was for us in 2006 (the small bump in OBP and SLG getting negated by the increased GIDP).

At this point, my guess is unless Vidro is showing me to be off base and he’s hitting like it’s 2000-2001 again, he gets replaced in the starting lineup by the All-Star break, whether it’s by Broussard or calling up Jones, or whatever.

]]> By: Josh http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/comment-page-2/#comment-173511 Josh Tue, 17 Apr 2007 00:11:20 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/#comment-173511 That BABIP should improve, Bilbo. The problem is that it won't improve <i>much</i> if he actually intends to keep scooting grounders to 2B/SS. He's too slow to beat out anything in the infield, and the grass here doesn't exactly give his grounders the giddy-up that they may have gained during his heydey in Olympic Stadium. It's a recipe for disaster. Even if he does hit, say, .300 with minimal power and a lot of GIDP, will that be good out of a DH / batting 3rd combo? I'm rooting for him to do well as much as anyone is. If he does well I'll be happy for him and the team. I just don't see it coming. That BABIP should improve, Bilbo. The problem is that it won’t improve much if he actually intends to keep scooting grounders to 2B/SS. He’s too slow to beat out anything in the infield, and the grass here doesn’t exactly give his grounders the giddy-up that they may have gained during his heydey in Olympic Stadium. It’s a recipe for disaster.

Even if he does hit, say, .300 with minimal power and a lot of GIDP, will that be good out of a DH / batting 3rd combo?

I’m rooting for him to do well as much as anyone is. If he does well I’ll be happy for him and the team. I just don’t see it coming.

]]> By: Bilbo http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/comment-page-2/#comment-173504 Bilbo Mon, 16 Apr 2007 23:29:00 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/04/15/a-brief-statistical-comment/#comment-173504 I love it when small sample size is used to show Vidro sucks. But, isn't his BABIP like .185 right now? So how would his numbers look if his BABIP was in line and what should we expect it to look like when he regresses to the mean? I love it when small sample size is used to show Vidro sucks. But, isn’t his BABIP like .185 right now? So how would his numbers look if his BABIP was in line and what should we expect it to look like when he regresses to the mean?

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