Comments on: The Most Consistent Pitcher of All Time http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/ Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion Fri, 10 Feb 2012 01:19:43 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: blank_frackis http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/comment-page-3/#comment-179544 blank_frackis Thu, 03 May 2007 18:59:26 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/#comment-179544 Agreed however I think the premise of the article here could be called into question a little if you consider that xFIP/FIP is a better predictor of a pitcher's performance than simply his BB/G + K/G. Surely the fact that Washburn had a lower xFIP/FIP in 2005 and 2007 than he did in 2006 goes some way to explaining his success as opposed to just the luck theory derived from LOB%. I don't think it's altogether fair to say that he was exactly the same pitcher in 2005 and 2006 when his FIP/xFIP numbers were lower. Surely at least some of his success was down to improved performance (even if luck does factor into the equation). Agreed however I think the premise of the article here could be called into question a little if you consider that xFIP/FIP is a better predictor of a pitcher’s performance than simply his BB/G + K/G. Surely the fact that Washburn had a lower xFIP/FIP in 2005 and 2007 than he did in 2006 goes some way to explaining his success as opposed to just the luck theory derived from LOB%. I don’t think it’s altogether fair to say that he was exactly the same pitcher in 2005 and 2006 when his FIP/xFIP numbers were lower. Surely at least some of his success was down to improved performance (even if luck does factor into the equation).

]]> By: chrisisasavage http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/comment-page-3/#comment-179440 chrisisasavage Thu, 03 May 2007 06:30:08 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/#comment-179440 RE: LOB% Per THT's website, the formula is (H+BB+HBP-R)/(H+BB+HBP-(1.4*HR)). It's the percentage of runners that do not score. Replace R w/ xR, H w/ xH, HR with xHR, and use properly regressed BB+HBP #'s. xR, xH, and xHR can come from whatever formula you want. I'd probably create an "expected line" (H, R, HR) from their batted ball data and run the numbers into a BaseRuns formula, then use the above formula. I'm not sure the value of that though, since the expected BaseRuns data would be more useful in determining a pitchers value. LOB% and BABIP correlate strongly with pitcher performance, but each one measures one aspect of a pitchers performance, there are much better metrics for evaluating pitcher talent. RE: LOB%

Per THT’s website, the formula is (H+BB+HBP-R)/(H+BB+HBP-(1.4*HR)). It’s the percentage of runners that do not score. Replace R w/ xR, H w/ xH, HR with xHR, and use properly regressed BB+HBP #’s. xR, xH, and xHR can come from whatever formula you want. I’d probably create an “expected line” (H, R, HR) from their batted ball data and run the numbers into a BaseRuns formula, then use the above formula. I’m not sure the value of that though, since the expected BaseRuns data would be more useful in determining a pitchers value. LOB% and BABIP correlate strongly with pitcher performance, but each one measures one aspect of a pitchers performance, there are much better metrics for evaluating pitcher talent.

]]> By: Colorado M's Fan http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/comment-page-3/#comment-179411 Colorado M's Fan Thu, 03 May 2007 04:40:58 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/#comment-179411 Dave, Great write-up as usual. While I won't dare argue with your reasoning on the three outcomes, and other factors, I have to admit that Jarrod Washburn has been lucky enough to not be the firebreathing horror show I thought he would be when we signed him two years ago to his instant-albatross contract. May he be so horrible in the future? That is certainly possible. And if he is, then you've made your position well known and you can always point to this thread (and others) and say "told you so." And I agree that just because you don't think a Mariners player is the bee's knees doesn't make you anti-Mariner. I guess that makes 99% of Phillies and Yankees fans anti-fans. Dave,

Great write-up as usual. While I won’t dare argue with your reasoning on the three outcomes, and other factors, I have to admit that Jarrod Washburn has been lucky enough to not be the firebreathing horror show I thought he would be when we signed him two years ago to his instant-albatross contract.

May he be so horrible in the future? That is certainly possible. And if he is, then you’ve made your position well known and you can always point to this thread (and others) and say “told you so.”

And I agree that just because you don’t think a Mariners player is the bee’s knees doesn’t make you anti-Mariner. I guess that makes 99% of Phillies and Yankees fans anti-fans.

]]> By: chrisisasavage http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/comment-page-3/#comment-179409 chrisisasavage Thu, 03 May 2007 04:30:34 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/#comment-179409 I dont think it was meant to imply that xFIP should be used as an accurate predictor of LOB%, but that it they have a somewhat signifigant correlation. That's intuitive, since xFIP is composed of some of the same peripherals as LOB%. Both LOB% and K% use K and BB, and OF% (HR adjustment in xFIP) correlates strongly w/ hit and XBH allowance which an accurance LOB% model would use. I dont think it was meant to imply that xFIP should be used as an accurate predictor of LOB%, but that it they have a somewhat signifigant correlation. That’s intuitive, since xFIP is composed of some of the same peripherals as LOB%. Both LOB% and K% use K and BB, and OF% (HR adjustment in xFIP) correlates strongly w/ hit and XBH allowance which an accurance LOB% model would use.

]]> By: msb http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/comment-page-3/#comment-179408 msb Thu, 03 May 2007 04:16:39 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/#comment-179408 aaaaaaand, leading off the Gaspump tonight -- how much better Washburn is pitching this year. aaaaaaand, leading off the Gaspump tonight — how much better Washburn is pitching this year.

]]> By: blank_frackis http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/comment-page-3/#comment-179406 blank_frackis Thu, 03 May 2007 03:56:44 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/#comment-179406 Ok if you use Washburn's xFIP to predict his LOB% it would be a lot higher this year than last year. The lower a pitcher's xFIP is, the higher we would predict his LOB% to be. Washburn's xFIP for the last three years is - 2005 - 5.01 2006 - 5.35 2007 - 4.70 Consequently we would expect (under that reasoning) that Washburn's LOB% will be closer to the 2005 level than 2006. Ok if you use Washburn’s xFIP to predict his LOB% it would be a lot higher this year than last year. The lower a pitcher’s xFIP is, the higher we would predict his LOB% to be. Washburn’s xFIP for the last three years is -

2005 – 5.01
2006 – 5.35
2007 – 4.70

Consequently we would expect (under that reasoning) that Washburn’s LOB% will be closer to the 2005 level than 2006.

]]> By: Jeff Nye http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/comment-page-3/#comment-179405 Jeff Nye Thu, 03 May 2007 03:33:56 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/#comment-179405 I've heard that, in addition to hating the Mariners, Dave also hates freedom. True story. I’ve heard that, in addition to hating the Mariners, Dave also hates freedom.

True story.

]]> By: chrisisasavage http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/comment-page-3/#comment-179402 chrisisasavage Thu, 03 May 2007 03:22:59 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/#comment-179402 LOB% is partially skill, based on K, BB, BABIP, flyball tendancies, etc, but like everything else, outliers, that are playing above or below what their statistics would indicate are going to regress, like any other statistic. I don't know any formula perse to predict LOB%, but I'm sure it wouldn't be hard to figure out. Check this out: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ten-things-i-didnt-know-a-couple-of-weeks-ago/ Read: Better pitchers leave more runners on base. Talks about using xFIP to predict LOB%. LOB% is partially skill, based on K, BB, BABIP, flyball tendancies, etc, but like everything else, outliers, that are playing above or below what their statistics would indicate are going to regress, like any other statistic. I don’t know any formula perse to predict LOB%, but I’m sure it wouldn’t be hard to figure out.

Check this out:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ten-things-i-didnt-know-a-couple-of-weeks-ago/

Read: Better pitchers leave more runners on base.
Talks about using xFIP to predict LOB%.

]]> By: blank_frackis http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/comment-page-3/#comment-179401 blank_frackis Thu, 03 May 2007 03:07:18 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/#comment-179401 Surely Washburn's LOB% is an expression of the success he's having in terms of his general GB%. The three statistics you use when determining what you would expect someone's LOB% to be are walk and strikeout rates and the amount of flyballs. If you just look at his BB/G and K/G then it looks like he's exactly the same pitcher, but if you look at his GB% then the numbers are - 2005 - 39.3% 2006 - 39.9% 2007 - 49.9% LOB% has always puzzled me as a statistic because it's treated as an indicator of luck, yet the expected LOB% for a given pitcher is determined by his skill set. This is fine when you're analysing a performance after it's already happened, but you can't predict what a pitcher's BB/G, K/G and GB% will be before the season's actually taken place and consequently, it's impossible to predict what the expected LOB% will be beforehand. It's entirely possible that Washburn is performing better (his GB% certainly indicates this) and this has raised what we would expect his LOB% to be - which in turn makes his performance less of an outlier. Surely Washburn’s LOB% is an expression of the success he’s having in terms of his general GB%. The three statistics you use when determining what you would expect someone’s LOB% to be are walk and strikeout rates and the amount of flyballs. If you just look at his BB/G and K/G then it looks like he’s exactly the same pitcher, but if you look at his GB% then the numbers are –

2005 – 39.3%
2006 – 39.9%
2007 – 49.9%

LOB% has always puzzled me as a statistic because it’s treated as an indicator of luck, yet the expected LOB% for a given pitcher is determined by his skill set. This is fine when you’re analysing a performance after it’s already happened, but you can’t predict what a pitcher’s BB/G, K/G and GB% will be before the season’s actually taken place and consequently, it’s impossible to predict what the expected LOB% will be beforehand. It’s entirely possible that Washburn is performing better (his GB% certainly indicates this) and this has raised what we would expect his LOB% to be – which in turn makes his performance less of an outlier.

]]> By: chrisisasavage http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/comment-page-3/#comment-179394 chrisisasavage Thu, 03 May 2007 02:01:11 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/02/the-most-consistent-pitcher-of-all-time/#comment-179394 I realized Safeco will help Washburn look good though. Possibly a lot. I realized Safeco will help Washburn look good though. Possibly a lot.

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