Comments on: 20 Percent Grades – The Pitching http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/ Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion Fri, 10 Feb 2012 01:19:43 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: eponymous coward http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/comment-page-2/#comment-184277 eponymous coward Tue, 15 May 2007 23:03:49 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/#comment-184277 Oh, and let's recall, these are the ROYALS we are discussing here. Staff aces for the last 10 years (leading team in IP), using bad traditional stats because that's what fans will generally use: 2006, Mark Redman: 11-10, 5.71 ERA 2005, Runelvys Hernandez: 8-14, 5.52 ERA 2004, Darrell May: 9-19, 5.61 ERA 2003, Darrell May, 10-8, 3.77 ERA (this was their +.500 year...and they STILL had a staff ERA over 5) 2002, Paul Byrd, 17-11, 3.90 ERA 2001, Jeff Suppan, 11-14, 4.37 ERA 2000, Jeff Suppan, 10-9, 4.94 ERA 1999, Jose Rosado, 10-14, 3.85 ERA 1998, Tim Belcher, 14-14, 4.37 ERA 1997, Kevin Appier, 9-13, 3.40 ERA Let's KC is used to being disappointed by their staff aces (exactly ONE year with more than 14 wins and a +.500 record, and three consecutive years where the staff "ace" posted an ERA over 5.50), so Gil's bar for avoiding disappointment isn't exactly impossible to clear here. Oh, and let’s recall, these are the ROYALS we are discussing here.

Staff aces for the last 10 years (leading team in IP), using bad traditional stats because that’s what fans will generally use:

2006, Mark Redman: 11-10, 5.71 ERA
2005, Runelvys Hernandez: 8-14, 5.52 ERA
2004, Darrell May: 9-19, 5.61 ERA
2003, Darrell May, 10-8, 3.77 ERA (this was their +.500 year…and they STILL had a staff ERA over 5)
2002, Paul Byrd, 17-11, 3.90 ERA
2001, Jeff Suppan, 11-14, 4.37 ERA
2000, Jeff Suppan, 10-9, 4.94 ERA
1999, Jose Rosado, 10-14, 3.85 ERA
1998, Tim Belcher, 14-14, 4.37 ERA
1997, Kevin Appier, 9-13, 3.40 ERA

Let’s KC is used to being disappointed by their staff aces (exactly ONE year with more than 14 wins and a +.500 record, and three consecutive years where the staff “ace” posted an ERA over 5.50), so Gil’s bar for avoiding disappointment isn’t exactly impossible to clear here.

]]> By: Gomez http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/comment-page-2/#comment-184275 Gomez Tue, 15 May 2007 22:44:30 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/#comment-184275 Ooh, now I'm curious, Derek! Is it the abnormal difference between his FIP and actual ERA? Is it a combination of weak lineups and an abnormally low number of runs scored off of the hits he's allowed? You think his low walk rate is the product of hacktastic lineups rather than actual improvement of control? I'm totally pulling these guesses out of thin air, but I'm certainly curious. I'd welcome an entry on the subject if you get the chance. Ooh, now I’m curious, Derek! Is it the abnormal difference between his FIP and actual ERA? Is it a combination of weak lineups and an abnormally low number of runs scored off of the hits he’s allowed? You think his low walk rate is the product of hacktastic lineups rather than actual improvement of control?

I’m totally pulling these guesses out of thin air, but I’m certainly curious. I’d welcome an entry on the subject if you get the chance.

]]> By: eponymous coward http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/comment-page-2/#comment-184273 eponymous coward Tue, 15 May 2007 22:19:34 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/#comment-184273 Meche's FIP is 3.66, his xFIP is 3.53. I don't think he'll have a 1.88 ERA all year long, but he's improved his K rate, BB rate, and GB rate (with the increase in K rate dating back to last year, so if it's a fluke, it's a fluke that's lasted for over a year). Let's also recall this is a guy who's had over 2 years blown out of his career by injury that he would have spent refining his craft. He would not exactly be the first power pitcher who big steps forward at a comparatively late age, either: http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/schmija01.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/clemema01.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/johnsra05.shtml Note that I am not saying Meche == Johnson, or even Schmidt. If anything, he's probably close to Clement (until he does something over a couple of years comparable to Schmidt). So I'm curious to see an argument as to why Gil Meche is going to disappoint the Royals. Meche’s FIP is 3.66, his xFIP is 3.53. I don’t think he’ll have a 1.88 ERA all year long, but he’s improved his K rate, BB rate, and GB rate (with the increase in K rate dating back to last year, so if it’s a fluke, it’s a fluke that’s lasted for over a year). Let’s also recall this is a guy who’s had over 2 years blown out of his career by injury that he would have spent refining his craft.

He would not exactly be the first power pitcher who big steps forward at a comparatively late age, either:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/schmija01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/clemema01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/johnsra05.shtml

Note that I am not saying Meche == Johnson, or even Schmidt. If anything, he’s probably close to Clement (until he does something over a couple of years comparable to Schmidt).

So I’m curious to see an argument as to why Gil Meche is going to disappoint the Royals.

]]> By: DMZ http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/comment-page-2/#comment-184269 DMZ Tue, 15 May 2007 21:57:09 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/#comment-184269 I've been chewing over a Meche post for a while, but to summarize: I think his improvement is not sustainable and cruel to Royals fans. I’ve been chewing over a Meche post for a while, but to summarize: I think his improvement is not sustainable and cruel to Royals fans.

]]> By: Gomez http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/comment-page-2/#comment-184262 Gomez Tue, 15 May 2007 21:16:15 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/#comment-184262 Gil Meche apparently <a href="http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070507&content_id=1950764&vkey=news_kc&fext=.jsp&c_id=kc" rel="nofollow">made a mechanical adjustment</a> during ST that has allowed him to throw with more ease and, subsequently, control. Gil Meche apparently made a mechanical adjustment during ST that has allowed him to throw with more ease and, subsequently, control.

]]> By: Salty Dog http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/comment-page-2/#comment-184235 Salty Dog Tue, 15 May 2007 15:23:06 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/#comment-184235 I don't disagree with the F's for Ho-Ram and Batista, but there's reason for hope with both of them. Ho-Ram has struggled because he forgot who he was. Early on, he was trying to fool hitters, strike them out, and generally use tools that he just doesn't have. I thought he was using his cutter way too much, which is what got him in trouble with the Braves. He's a groundball pitcher who lives and dies by limiting walks, holding batters to mostly singles, and inducing double plays. I didn't see his last start, but given that he had a 14-4 GB/FB ratio and only 1 walk, I'm hopeful he's realized he needs to get back to basics: throw his sinker for strikes and let the infield defense carry him. That won't make him a great pitcher, just a solid back of the rotation starter. Batista just seems to be a bit unlucky. His BABIP is abnormally high, his LOB % is abnormally low. I've watched a few of his recent starts, and he looks perfectly fine to me. Again, not a great pitcher, but one whose skillset should translate to quality starts. I don’t disagree with the F’s for Ho-Ram and Batista, but there’s reason for hope with both of them.

Ho-Ram has struggled because he forgot who he was. Early on, he was trying to fool hitters, strike them out, and generally use tools that he just doesn’t have. I thought he was using his cutter way too much, which is what got him in trouble with the Braves. He’s a groundball pitcher who lives and dies by limiting walks, holding batters to mostly singles, and inducing double plays. I didn’t see his last start, but given that he had a 14-4 GB/FB ratio and only 1 walk, I’m hopeful he’s realized he needs to get back to basics: throw his sinker for strikes and let the infield defense carry him. That won’t make him a great pitcher, just a solid back of the rotation starter.

Batista just seems to be a bit unlucky. His BABIP is abnormally high, his LOB % is abnormally low. I’ve watched a few of his recent starts, and he looks perfectly fine to me. Again, not a great pitcher, but one whose skillset should translate to quality starts.

]]> By: Tak http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/comment-page-2/#comment-184231 Tak Tue, 15 May 2007 09:28:44 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/#comment-184231 Meche had another impressive start today as well. #64 Luck is obviously a factor, but I would say that its more about the whole division being weak more than anything. Meche had another impressive start today as well.

#64

Luck is obviously a factor, but I would say that its more about the whole division being weak more than anything.

]]> By: rcc http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/comment-page-2/#comment-184229 rcc Tue, 15 May 2007 08:40:52 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/#comment-184229 Do the Mariners have any "replacement level" arms in their farm system that they could promote to replace even one of the three "F" starting pitchers? I note that Gil Meche has started in 6 of the Kansas City Royals 13 wins. Is it possible that he has turned a corner, and is not the suckfest he was as a Mariner? Do the Mariners have any “replacement level” arms in their farm system that they could promote to replace even one of the three “F” starting pitchers?

I note that Gil Meche has started in 6 of the Kansas City Royals 13 wins. Is it possible that he has turned a corner, and is not the suckfest he was as a Mariner?

]]> By: hcoguy http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/comment-page-2/#comment-184228 hcoguy Tue, 15 May 2007 08:31:49 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/#comment-184228 I think Batista and the Ho deserve their f's but they should not have to share the same grade as Weaver. He should get a Y or a Z or hell he was expelled so whatever grade that would be. Actually, an L would be the best now that I have seriously (yes, seriously) thought about it. I think Batista and the Ho deserve their f’s but they should not have to share the same grade as Weaver. He should get a Y or a Z or hell he was expelled so whatever grade that would be.

Actually, an L would be the best now that I have seriously (yes, seriously) thought about it.

]]> By: AuburnM http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/comment-page-2/#comment-184222 AuburnM Tue, 15 May 2007 07:01:55 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/14/20-percent-grades-the-pitching/#comment-184222 Guess what? I mostly agree. I would give Batista and HoRam Ds, not Fs, and the overall grade would be C-, but I agree with Dave's overall point. This team needs three more RELIABLE, CONSISTENT starters if they going to win the division. As Dave points out, our best option is to cross our fingers and root for more consistency from Batista, HoRam, and Baek. Guess what? I mostly agree.

I would give Batista and HoRam Ds, not Fs, and the overall grade would be C-, but I agree with Dave’s overall point.

This team needs three more RELIABLE, CONSISTENT starters if they going to win the division. As Dave points out, our best option is to cross our fingers and root for more consistency from Batista, HoRam, and Baek.

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