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	<title>Comments on: Gil Meche, Opening Day Starter</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/</link>
	<description>Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion</description>
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		<title>By: manzell</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/comment-page-1/#comment-185826</link>
		<dc:creator>manzell</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 20 May 2007 20:48:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/#comment-185826</guid>
		<description>I largely think that Meche got on the &quot;Change of Scenery&quot; diet.

I think it&#039;s 100% as simple as Meche is trying harder. He&#039;s studying batter tendancies more. He&#039;s thinking a little bit harder about what pitches he wants. He&#039;s focused more on the mound.

I mean, let&#039;s face it - Meche was professionally stagnating on the mound. He&#039;d settled into a rut that wasn&#039;t particularly good, but would keep him in a job.

There is also the Seattle Curse: Free Agents that arrive in Seattle invariably drop off the table (See Mitchell, Kevin) and those that leave see their careers take off.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I largely think that Meche got on the &#8220;Change of Scenery&#8221; diet.</p>
<p>I think it&#8217;s 100% as simple as Meche is trying harder. He&#8217;s studying batter tendancies more. He&#8217;s thinking a little bit harder about what pitches he wants. He&#8217;s focused more on the mound.</p>
<p>I mean, let&#8217;s face it &#8211; Meche was professionally stagnating on the mound. He&#8217;d settled into a rut that wasn&#8217;t particularly good, but would keep him in a job.</p>
<p>There is also the Seattle Curse: Free Agents that arrive in Seattle invariably drop off the table (See Mitchell, Kevin) and those that leave see their careers take off.</p>
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		<title>By: oNeiRiC232</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/comment-page-1/#comment-185581</link>
		<dc:creator>oNeiRiC232</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 20 May 2007 00:46:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/#comment-185581</guid>
		<description>Well, it&#039;s KC.  Don&#039;t expect much of anything unless it has to do with football. :)

I&#039;d love to post a clip to make it visible, but capturing mlb&#039;s MMS stream and posting it on youtube is probably highly illegal.  I&#039;ll see what I can do.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, it&#8217;s KC.  Don&#8217;t expect much of anything unless it has to do with football. <img src='http://www.ussmariner.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>I&#8217;d love to post a clip to make it visible, but capturing mlb&#8217;s MMS stream and posting it on youtube is probably highly illegal.  I&#8217;ll see what I can do.</p>
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		<title>By: DMZ</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/comment-page-1/#comment-185580</link>
		<dc:creator>DMZ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 May 2007 22:59:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/#comment-185580</guid>
		<description>On the &quot;revived slider&quot; issue: I haven&#039;t seen it when I&#039;ve watched him.

Moreover, though, if that&#039;s the case, that&#039;s a fairly dramatic change to his approach, and I don&#039;t understand why it hasn&#039;t received any press. I&#039;ve been reading up trying to find information on this, and all I&#039;ve found is the mechanical tinkering.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On the &#8220;revived slider&#8221; issue: I haven&#8217;t seen it when I&#8217;ve watched him.</p>
<p>Moreover, though, if that&#8217;s the case, that&#8217;s a fairly dramatic change to his approach, and I don&#8217;t understand why it hasn&#8217;t received any press. I&#8217;ve been reading up trying to find information on this, and all I&#8217;ve found is the mechanical tinkering.</p>
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		<title>By: Mat</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/comment-page-1/#comment-185578</link>
		<dc:creator>Mat</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 May 2007 21:48:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/#comment-185578</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;My guess is he brought back the slider that he used to throw much earlier in his career, and with his newfound mechanical consistency, is really making it work for him.&lt;/i&gt;

Throwing a slider would certainly be consistent with inducing more groundballs.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>My guess is he brought back the slider that he used to throw much earlier in his career, and with his newfound mechanical consistency, is really making it work for him.</i></p>
<p>Throwing a slider would certainly be consistent with inducing more groundballs.</p>
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		<title>By: carcinogen</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/comment-page-1/#comment-185577</link>
		<dc:creator>carcinogen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 May 2007 20:32:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/#comment-185577</guid>
		<description>#15: IYO, what would be a sufficient sample size for  this analysis. 100 innings?  I vote to revisit this issue then, as I tend to think you might be right.

To anyone with knowledge of such things: is KC somewhat of a hitter&#039;s park?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#15: IYO, what would be a sufficient sample size for  this analysis. 100 innings?  I vote to revisit this issue then, as I tend to think you might be right.</p>
<p>To anyone with knowledge of such things: is KC somewhat of a hitter&#8217;s park?</p>
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		<title>By: Edgar For Pres</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/comment-page-1/#comment-185576</link>
		<dc:creator>Edgar For Pres</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 May 2007 19:49:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/#comment-185576</guid>
		<description>I was looking at his Baseball ref batted info.  He&#039;s basically got the same behavior with swinging strikes, contact rate, and almost everything else you could imagine.  Kinda wierd.  June of last year may just being repeated.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was looking at his Baseball ref batted info.  He&#8217;s basically got the same behavior with swinging strikes, contact rate, and almost everything else you could imagine.  Kinda wierd.  June of last year may just being repeated.</p>
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		<title>By: oNeiRiC232</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/comment-page-1/#comment-185575</link>
		<dc:creator>oNeiRiC232</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 May 2007 18:54:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/#comment-185575</guid>
		<description>Go look at the actual game footage.  He&#039;s definitely throwing a new pitch, like I said in #4.

Quick example:  look through his K&#039;s on opening day, 4/2/07.  Some of those are definitely new.


My guess is he brought back the slider that he used to throw much earlier in his career, and with his newfound mechanical consistency, is really making it work for him.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Go look at the actual game footage.  He&#8217;s definitely throwing a new pitch, like I said in #4.</p>
<p>Quick example:  look through his K&#8217;s on opening day, 4/2/07.  Some of those are definitely new.</p>
<p>My guess is he brought back the slider that he used to throw much earlier in his career, and with his newfound mechanical consistency, is really making it work for him.</p>
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		<title>By: John Walsh</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/comment-page-1/#comment-185574</link>
		<dc:creator>John Walsh</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 May 2007 18:37:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/#comment-185574</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m wondering if the GB hypothesis is really the reason for Meche&#039;s success.  The main advantage of being a GB&#039;er is giving up few HR. As Derek already mentioned, his HR rate hasn&#039;t changed much this year. The reason for that, btw, is that he&#039;s giving up more HR per fly ball this season.  If he&#039;s been lucky in getting more ground balls, he&#039;s been unlucky in giving up more HR per fly ball, it would seem. 

If you look at Meche&#039;s FIP, you find he&#039;s at 3.63, nowhere near his 1.92 ERA.  The reason for the difference is Meche&#039;s LOB%, which is a flukey-high 82.3% right now. In past years he was typically around 70%, which is roughly league average. 

BTW, that FIP of 3.63 (if it holds up) is a run better than any he posted in the last 3 years.  The reason for that is the reduced walk rate, which according to THT&#039;s stat page, amounts to 1.5 fewer walks per game.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m wondering if the GB hypothesis is really the reason for Meche&#8217;s success.  The main advantage of being a GB&#8217;er is giving up few HR. As Derek already mentioned, his HR rate hasn&#8217;t changed much this year. The reason for that, btw, is that he&#8217;s giving up more HR per fly ball this season.  If he&#8217;s been lucky in getting more ground balls, he&#8217;s been unlucky in giving up more HR per fly ball, it would seem. </p>
<p>If you look at Meche&#8217;s FIP, you find he&#8217;s at 3.63, nowhere near his 1.92 ERA.  The reason for the difference is Meche&#8217;s LOB%, which is a flukey-high 82.3% right now. In past years he was typically around 70%, which is roughly league average. </p>
<p>BTW, that FIP of 3.63 (if it holds up) is a run better than any he posted in the last 3 years.  The reason for that is the reduced walk rate, which according to THT&#8217;s stat page, amounts to 1.5 fewer walks per game.</p>
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		<title>By: MickeyZ</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/comment-page-1/#comment-185573</link>
		<dc:creator>MickeyZ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 May 2007 16:40:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/#comment-185573</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t think a guy becomes a groundball pitcher unless he starts throwing a new pitch.  61 innings isn&#039;t enough of a sample, I think he&#039;ll revert to normal.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t think a guy becomes a groundball pitcher unless he starts throwing a new pitch.  61 innings isn&#8217;t enough of a sample, I think he&#8217;ll revert to normal.</p>
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		<title>By: hub</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/comment-page-1/#comment-185571</link>
		<dc:creator>hub</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 May 2007 11:44:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/05/18/gil-meche-opening-day-starter/#comment-185571</guid>
		<description>In short:  if you happen to have Meche on your fantasy team...sell NOW.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In short:  if you happen to have Meche on your fantasy team&#8230;sell NOW.</p>
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