Comments on: Game 39, Padres at Mariners

By: lemonverbena

lemonverbena — Mon, 21 May 2007 21:06:05 +0000

it shouldn’t have to be pointed out, but everyone is belaboring the argument that he shouldn’t have bunted at all are forgetting that he still had the bat in his hands with two strikes. Grover saw how bad his bunt attempt was at 2-1, didn’t risk him fouling out on another bunt attempt, then Beltre swung away and popped up. that he was so desperately hamstrung with a second strike on the bunt attempt doesn’t absolve him of getting the job done when he does swing away.

this wasn’t a managerial fuck-up, it was a player not executing.

By: kentroyals5

kentroyals5 — Mon, 21 May 2007 21:00:18 +0000

Dave that was exactly the point I think most intelligent baseball fans are arguing. Bunting may have been the right idea, but not on the 2-1 count.

I also think that the increase in Win Expectancy can be somewhat negated by what 2 players are coming up to bat. With Sexson and Ibanez on the bench we basically had two of our worst regulars up at next. Thus, Beltre may have been our best chance.

Leave it to Hargrove to find someway to make the wrong call.

By: Dave

Dave — Mon, 21 May 2007 18:33:04 +0000

http://www.tangotiger.net/welist.html

Bottom 9, down by a run, runners at 1st and 2nd with no out, the home team has a .516 Win Expectancy.

Bottom 9, down by a run, runners at 2nd and 3rd with one out, the home team has a .540 Win Expectancy.

So, yes, a successful bunt in that situation increases the M’s chances of winning the game. But not dramatically – only by about 2.5%, and that’s assuming the bunt works.

Basically, this one’s a coin toss – Hargrove’s not a moron for bunting and he’s not a moron for not bunting. Either call there is defendable.

However, waiting until Beltre got into a hitters count and then asking him to bunt is just ridiculously stupid. Hargrove took a situation with a choice between two correct answers and went with C) none of the above, finding the only wrong answer in the entire spectrum of possibilities.

That’s pretty remarkable.

By: kentroyals5

kentroyals5 — Mon, 21 May 2007 08:44:56 +0000

I was at the game…everyone around me was like WTF when it came to 2-1 and they asked him to square around…just ridiculous because we all know that 2 strikes on Beltre usually doesn’t bode well..especially with Yubet and Lopez on deck…once Beltre was out, the game was over.

I thought Beltre’s reaction to getting out was being absolutely pissed at Hargrove..walked into the dugout past Hargrove and threw his helmet into the clubhouse area and continued walking…I just thought Hargrove screwed our chances by waiting until a 2-1 pitch.

And that crowd was pretty good today…they were really pumped up for a rally and it was fun…we were able to quell all those little-leaguers from trying to get the wave going…as Mariner fans they need to get used to dissapointment

By: Mike G.

Mike G. — Mon, 21 May 2007 07:02:13 +0000

Wow, bunting is such a divisive issue!

By: rockjr13

rockjr13 — Mon, 21 May 2007 06:11:55 +0000

Even though I still think that, with Beltre at the the plate, we have a much better chance to win if we let him swing away. And definitely don’t wait until he’s in a 2-1 count to bunt… that was just idiotic.

By: rockjr13

rockjr13 — Mon, 21 May 2007 06:10:25 +0000

275-

The numbers from 2006 come from a ridiculously small sample size. In 2006, the 9th inning, home team batting, 1st and 2nd nobody out, down by one run situation came up only six times, while the one out, men at 2nd and 3rd situation only arose 7 times.

Your point is still valid, however. Using samples from 1977-2006, the runner and 1st and 2nd, one out situation yields a win expectancy of .514, while runners on 2nd and 3rd, one out has a win expectancy of .551. Still a better win expectancy, but not quite the jump that the 2006 numbers suggest.

By: JI

JI — Mon, 21 May 2007 05:56:25 +0000

I would have bunted with a good bunter. I would have bunted twice in a row with 2 good bunters. But I wouldn’t bunt with Beltre who is an inexperenced bunter because I’d prefer not to flush outs down the toilet. I suppose if it is successful you have Betancourt squeeze, because he and Lopez suck at hitting flyballs.

The point is, we had a much better shot with Beltre swinging away in a hitters’ count then we did with him trying to lay one down, especially with two crappy hitters on deck.

By: Ralph Malph

Ralph Malph — Mon, 21 May 2007 05:19:46 +0000

According to B-Pro, win expectancy in the 9th inning, home team batting, 1st and 2nd nobody out, down by one run (using 2006 figures) is .66667.

One out, men at 2nd and 3rd, win expectancy is .8571.

Interesting…..

By: Wishhiker

Wishhiker — Mon, 21 May 2007 05:12:01 +0000

That’s called ‘Managing’ Joser and you haveto havea ‘Manager’ to perform ‘Managing’ operations