Comments on: Felix, Pitch Selection, Part 843

By: billy1

billy1 — Thu, 14 Jun 2007 16:51:33 +0000

Well, based on your response, I probobly don’t owe it to you to go back over a years worth of “data” . Your thesis is flawed, and you really haven’t shown much (above) except that he has lousy command of the fb. There are scores of pitching coaches, managers, ex-players, scouts, etc.who provide ample evidence on my side of the argument. You seem to want to relish in flying in the face of 50-100 years of how to develop pitchers of his archetype, I certainly won’t convince you otherwise. If you base wanting to have him coming out throwing a lot of junk on your observation that he seems to do a bit better with the curve, that leads to a pretty obvious point. He has to have a mechanical flaw that would prevent him from throwing a much easier to control pitch, with regularity.

By: Dave

Dave — Wed, 13 Jun 2007 22:53:04 +0000

I’d be a lot more inclined to give your opinions credence if there was any evidence behind them. There’s not, and of your provable assertions, the data says you’re wrong.

By: billy1

billy1 — Wed, 13 Jun 2007 10:50:15 +0000

Well, I’m gonna have to come up on the other side of this one, and if you’ll bear with me, throw out some opposing views.

1)Felix is a young power pitcher, learning his way, and is going to have some hiccups regardless of his pitch selection.
2)Most starting pitchers don’t come into every game “hot” with all of their pitches (thumbers like Moyer excluded).
3)Getting hit early or not at all, is very common with good pitchers. They walk a fine line between getting loose, and getting tired before the game.
4)The M’s org. wants to see him succeed, at least as much, and more, than the fans do. And like them, I am greedy when it comes to his career.
5) What separates him now, even at his age, from the true greats of the last 15 years is command of the fastball.
6)#5 puts the M’s in a tough spot, sure, he can succeed(for the most part), now, throwing the kitchen sink at teams from the start, but that does not bode (as) well for the future. They need him on the mound, they know he needs to harness his stuff, what to do? Well, either put him down in AAA, or live with the growing pains.
7)Its tough to constanly call out the M’s for trashing prospect arms, rushing them through, etc., without realizing that they are taking a decidedly carefull approach towards Felix.
8)Almost all 3 pitch guys save 1 of their bullets for the second time through the order.
9) There would be no issue to be fretted over if he could get the ball down. But where and when is he to learn this skill? Let’s give the M’s some credit, they do have a plan for him, one which I believe speaks well for the long-term, though we will have to live with a little short-term pain.
10) And just for kicks, comparing Felix vs. the league in the 1st inning is cool, but aren’t we bringing in all pitchers to the issue? What would be more interesting would be to see how his fb % compares to other power pitchers, as oppossed to league-wide. I would guess that he is similar to Santana, Oswalt, Peavey, and so on.

By: moocow

moocow — Wed, 13 Jun 2007 01:13:08 +0000

Re: #44

Thanks Dave. Hard to argue with that!

By: halibuthank

halibuthank — Tue, 12 Jun 2007 08:02:44 +0000

I just have to say, thank you. i roll to the the good ship USS mariner and am continually thankful and thrilled to read all the well-researched, thoughtful and fun content. Helluva job, mates. Cheers and keep up the good work. PS-I love the fact that by having high standards and kicking ass USSM gets more and more props by the day (KJR, ESPN, Etc.) Yeah, Baby!!!

By: Dave

Dave — Tue, 12 Jun 2007 06:39:05 +0000

Do you have any data (pitch charts) that suggests that other organizations are actually different on this point?

Yep – Dan Fox just did an article on this last week. According to his data, approximately 57% of all pitches in the first inning in major league games are fastballs, with the league average for other innings being about 55%.

Felix is generally 80% fastballs in the first inning and 50% the rest of the game. It’s a ridiculous way to pitch.

By: Dave

Dave — Tue, 12 Jun 2007 06:02:43 +0000

Feel free to read the links to last year’s many articles in the Charting Felix series, when I laid out exactly how Felix pitches in certain counts and situations. While we understand that we have a lot of new readers, at some point, we can’t continue to go over things we’ve laid out, and linked to, in many different places.

By: nathaniel dawson

nathaniel dawson — Tue, 12 Jun 2007 04:24:09 +0000

Did you track balls and strikes for each type of pitch? Might that not be important when analyzing pitch selection?

By: moocow

moocow — Tue, 12 Jun 2007 03:18:23 +0000

A couple of things I’m wondering–one of your central points is that the M’s organization in particular preaches establishing your fastball. Do you have any data (pitch charts) that suggests that other organizations are actually different on this point? I haven’t done any research nearly as in-depth as yours, but just from casual observation it seems to me that most pitchers start the game off with mostly fastballs and gradually work in their other pitches the 2nd and 3rd times through the order. So it seems to me to be a common practice, though I admit I have no data to back this up.

The other thing I’m wondering is is it not possible that establishing his fastball is the thing that is making his other pitches so effective? I thought that was the point of establishing the fastball. Perhaps if he started the game throwing curves and changes, your pitching chart would come out differently, i.e. hitters would hit those pitches better in the middle and latter parts of the game.

By: Edman

Edman — Tue, 12 Jun 2007 02:54:32 +0000

Here’s a thought…..maybe if Felix hit his spots, that’s the real problem……not trying to establish his fastball as a generic statement.
Felix has to establish his fastball, to make the other pitches work. It’s been used in baseball for quite a while now.

Felix has to find is location. He’s good enough that if he keeps his fastball out of the center of the plate, he can win games.

I just don’t buy into the need to change his game plan. That promotes bad habits. His fastball is his strength……and he has to establish it. Yes, he may suffer a little until he gets his control back…..but that’s how he’s won and there is no need to change it now.