Comments on: One Run Games

By: Evan

Evan — Wed, 13 Jun 2007 03:39:17 +0000

Right now, Raul’s EqA is .292.

His 2004 EqA: .292

His 2005 EqA: .292

Talk about consistent.

By: eponymous coward

eponymous coward — Wed, 13 Jun 2007 02:33:47 +0000

Right, but there is an element of “luck is the residue of design”- while bad teams are closer to .500 as a whole on one-run games, and good teams are closer to .500 as well, there’s still positive correlation between one-run record and overall record…it’s just weaker than 1.0 because luck is a bigger factor than in blowouts.

By: Gomez

Gomez — Wed, 13 Jun 2007 02:27:55 +0000

One run wins are like quality starts: something for the media to fill airtime talking about and nothing more.

When a game is close, who wins or loses basically comes down to circumstance, unless (maybe) one of the teams involved has an incredibly crappy bullpen, and even then, the team’s overall record often bears that crappiness out in some part, since that crappy bullpen’s being crappy in every game, not just one run games.

By: carcinogen

carcinogen — Wed, 13 Jun 2007 02:08:35 +0000

I agree with 106, the PA differential may be affecting those raw rankings. However, Sexson and Ibanez…not to mention Vidro, have not given them much power, so if they heat up, those raw slugging numbers would rise.

By: Morgan

Morgan — Wed, 13 Jun 2007 01:25:18 +0000

If baseball experts are going to chalk the M's one-run wins to luck, I say the M's are due for some luck anyway, with their schedule and all. Check out the love at CBS sports

By: Chris Miller

Chris Miller — Wed, 13 Jun 2007 00:50:36 +0000

not 853 runs AT safeco, but 853 runs while playign half of their games at Safeco.

By: Chris Miller

Chris Miller — Wed, 13 Jun 2007 00:43:17 +0000

The M’s are on pace to score 853 runs at Safeco. That’s like a 900 run offense in a neutral park, which I’m not so sure is their actual talent level (I’m pretty sure it’s lower than that).

I do think getting/developing higher average right handers instead of higher power ones is not a bad approach given the park. Safeco has a positive 1B park factor for both LHB and RHB.

By: dnc

dnc — Wed, 13 Jun 2007 00:39:26 +0000

103, I love Adam Jones, but I think the idea that he’s one of our two or three best hitters is crazy. I SERIOUSLY doubt he’s better than Kenji or Ichiro right now. I suppose the argument could be made he’s better than the Ibanez/Beltre/Lopez cluster, but I’m not convinced.

I like AJ a lot. I think it’s clear that he belongs in the show. I just don’t think it’s fair to expect the kid to put up an .800 OPS in Seattle right now (which is what he’d have to do to be one of our top 3 hitters).

By: Chris Miller

Chris Miller — Wed, 13 Jun 2007 00:35:14 +0000

We should have Jones in the field. 2 wins could be the difference between sneaking into the Wildcard or Division and watching the playoffs at home.

By: Chris Miller

Chris Miller — Wed, 13 Jun 2007 00:32:36 +0000

They’r also 2nd to last in PA. They’re 7th in 2B/PA and 9th in HR/PA, all while playing at Safeco, which isn’t so bad, but yeah, it’s mostly a barage of singles, which has basically made of for the lack of walks. Actually now that I look, they’re WAY above the pack in 1B/PA.