Comments on: Size of the swing http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/ Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion Thu, 09 Feb 2012 21:19:17 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: eponymous coward http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/comment-page-1/#comment-198316 eponymous coward Wed, 20 Jun 2007 10:54:39 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/#comment-198316 <i>Freddy and Cameron were big keys to 2001</i> So were Ichiro, Kaz, Olerud, Boone, Sele, McLemore, Javier. Also please note that the year after we traded RJ, even with Freddy having a solid rookie season and Halama chipping in his best year, we were 79-83, and Cameron for Griffey was a deal where the Reds got him on a longterm deal, as opposed to a 3 month rental. Why shouldn't our GM try pulling off SIGNING Ichiro, instead of trying to cash in a Hall of Famer for what could be pennies on the the dollar? It's not like the franchise is awash in high-OBP players at critical defensive positions. Yes, Jones is a good player. He's also a .330 OBP guy, and installing him in CF means this team's going to have a hard time scoring runs without doing a lot of roster shakeup to find a high-OBP player. We HAVE one of the better ones in Ichiro- why give that up? Freddy and Cameron were big keys to 2001

So were Ichiro, Kaz, Olerud, Boone, Sele, McLemore, Javier.

Also please note that the year after we traded RJ, even with Freddy having a solid rookie season and Halama chipping in his best year, we were 79-83, and Cameron for Griffey was a deal where the Reds got him on a longterm deal, as opposed to a 3 month rental.

Why shouldn’t our GM try pulling off SIGNING Ichiro, instead of trying to cash in a Hall of Famer for what could be pennies on the the dollar? It’s not like the franchise is awash in high-OBP players at critical defensive positions. Yes, Jones is a good player. He’s also a .330 OBP guy, and installing him in CF means this team’s going to have a hard time scoring runs without doing a lot of roster shakeup to find a high-OBP player. We HAVE one of the better ones in Ichiro- why give that up?

]]> By: cjseattle http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/comment-page-1/#comment-198313 cjseattle Wed, 20 Jun 2007 09:06:15 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/#comment-198313 "The Mariners survived dumping RJ, Griffey and A-Rod by pulling in free agents and Japanese League imports" Well, the Mariners got Guillen, Freddy, and John Halama for RJ, and they got Cameron for Griffey. Freddy and Cameron were big keys to 2001. There are examples of intelligent trades out there. The question is can our GM pull it off? “The Mariners survived dumping RJ, Griffey and A-Rod by pulling in free agents and Japanese League imports”

Well, the Mariners got Guillen, Freddy, and John Halama for RJ, and they got Cameron for Griffey. Freddy and Cameron were big keys to 2001. There are examples of intelligent trades out there. The question is can our GM pull it off?

]]> By: eponymous coward http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/comment-page-1/#comment-198018 eponymous coward Tue, 19 Jun 2007 22:19:42 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/#comment-198018 <i>If we can get him to stay by throwing money at him, than do it, but if he truly only cares about winning, we need to cut bait and get as much as we can for him now, otherwise we get nothing.</i> No, you get the draft picks a Type A Free Agent gets you, plus the value of Ichiro's $11 million salary available to sign other players. Note that your trade is based around "getting solid young talent". Let's examine this premise. The last time a quality CF got traded to a contender was... Carlos Beltran. The Royals got Mark Teahen, John Buck and Mike Wood out of the deal (as a 3-way with Oakland). http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/teahema01.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/buckjo01.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/woodmi01.shtml The Royals have gotten value out of the deal, as Buck's apparently taken a step forward this year, but there's no way you can say they've gotten EQUAL value to what Beltran's done since the trade: http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/beltrca01.shtml and the other thing is KC still is a pretty miserable team. Simply put, you don't build great organizations out of trading great players. The Mariners survived dumping RJ, Griffey and A-Rod by pulling in free agents and Japanese League imports, but this is fairly rare in history... and it set the team up for problems with an old lineup a few years down the road, as we've seen. There's also the problem that trading Ichiro leaves the team with nobody who qualifies as a high-OBP player (Jones isn't going to be one). The next highest OBP behind Ichiro is Vidro at .348. So... now who bats leadoff in 2007? Which FA looks like a good bet to replace Ichiro? If we can get him to stay by throwing money at him, than do it, but if he truly only cares about winning, we need to cut bait and get as much as we can for him now, otherwise we get nothing.

No, you get the draft picks a Type A Free Agent gets you, plus the value of Ichiro’s $11 million salary available to sign other players.

Note that your trade is based around “getting solid young talent”. Let’s examine this premise. The last time a quality CF got traded to a contender was… Carlos Beltran. The Royals got Mark Teahen, John Buck and Mike Wood out of the deal (as a 3-way with Oakland).

http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/teahema01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/buckjo01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/woodmi01.shtml

The Royals have gotten value out of the deal, as Buck’s apparently taken a step forward this year, but there’s no way you can say they’ve gotten EQUAL value to what Beltran’s done since the trade:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/beltrca01.shtml

and the other thing is KC still is a pretty miserable team. Simply put, you don’t build great organizations out of trading great players. The Mariners survived dumping RJ, Griffey and A-Rod by pulling in free agents and Japanese League imports, but this is fairly rare in history… and it set the team up for problems with an old lineup a few years down the road, as we’ve seen.

There’s also the problem that trading Ichiro leaves the team with nobody who qualifies as a high-OBP player (Jones isn’t going to be one). The next highest OBP behind Ichiro is Vidro at .348. So… now who bats leadoff in 2007? Which FA looks like a good bet to replace Ichiro?

]]> By: dw http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/comment-page-1/#comment-198017 dw Tue, 19 Jun 2007 22:15:41 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/#comment-198017 <em>If we can’t however, we need to get something for him rather than let him walk in FA. </em> But if he walks in FA, we do get something for him -- the signing team's first-round pick (assuming it's a top-15 finisher in 2007) and a sandwich pick (equivalent to an early 2nd round choice). That's just as valuable as whatever shiny trinkets the Red Sox or Dodgers offer the M's. <em>Boston and New York both need a CF</em> No, they don't. If they trade for Ichiro they'll try to send back Crisp, but otherwise they won't deal Coco -- he's been fine out there. And the Yankees have a lot of money sunk in Johnny Damon. Also? The "enter" key is your friend. If we can’t however, we need to get something for him rather than let him walk in FA.

But if he walks in FA, we do get something for him — the signing team’s first-round pick (assuming it’s a top-15 finisher in 2007) and a sandwich pick (equivalent to an early 2nd round choice). That’s just as valuable as whatever shiny trinkets the Red Sox or Dodgers offer the M’s.

Boston and New York both need a CF

No, they don’t. If they trade for Ichiro they’ll try to send back Crisp, but otherwise they won’t deal Coco — he’s been fine out there. And the Yankees have a lot of money sunk in Johnny Damon.

Also? The “enter” key is your friend.

]]> By: jullberg http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/comment-page-1/#comment-198016 jullberg Tue, 19 Jun 2007 21:55:22 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/#comment-198016 Look, I love Ichiro... he's a great player and a great addition to the team. He carries our team and we would be nowhere offensively without him. His defense and OBP ability are amazing. That said, just reading some of his comments, he seems really perturbed with the way the team is going (I would be too if I were him). If we can sign him to an extension before the July 31st deadline, than keep him, for sure. Move Jones to LF and have a great defensive OF. If we can't however, we need to get something for him rather than let him walk in FA. If we can get him to stay by throwing money at him, than do it, but if he truly only cares about winning, we need to cut bait and get as much as we can for him now, otherwise we get nothing. Boston and New York both need a CF, both have young talent in the minors, and I feel like if we can get some solid young talent, it's better than letting him walk. My plan I wrote in 11 is really just on the idea that it seems that Ichiro is gone already. I mean unless the team suddenly makes the playoffs, but who honestly thinks we can do that? This team is built to fail and until Bavasi is gone I won't feel safe about where we are as an organization. Look, I love Ichiro… he’s a great player and a great addition to the team. He carries our team and we would be nowhere offensively without him. His defense and OBP ability are amazing. That said, just reading some of his comments, he seems really perturbed with the way the team is going (I would be too if I were him). If we can sign him to an extension before the July 31st deadline, than keep him, for sure. Move Jones to LF and have a great defensive OF. If we can’t however, we need to get something for him rather than let him walk in FA. If we can get him to stay by throwing money at him, than do it, but if he truly only cares about winning, we need to cut bait and get as much as we can for him now, otherwise we get nothing. Boston and New York both need a CF, both have young talent in the minors, and I feel like if we can get some solid young talent, it’s better than letting him walk. My plan I wrote in 11 is really just on the idea that it seems that Ichiro is gone already. I mean unless the team suddenly makes the playoffs, but who honestly thinks we can do that? This team is built to fail and until Bavasi is gone I won’t feel safe about where we are as an organization.

]]> By: DAMellen http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/comment-page-1/#comment-197945 DAMellen Tue, 19 Jun 2007 11:49:05 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/#comment-197945 #11, I think just about everything you said is right on, but I think #12's plan is a little more realistic. #11, I think just about everything you said is right on, but I think #12′s plan is a little more realistic.

]]> By: Ralph Malph http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/comment-page-1/#comment-197922 Ralph Malph Tue, 19 Jun 2007 04:14:00 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/#comment-197922 I put the odds of King Felix and Prince Philippe ever being in the same rotation at well under 50%. Add Morrow to the bet and I'd make it 20%. I think Gil Meche might have been in that dream rotation with Nageotte, Blackley and Anderson at one point. I put the odds of King Felix and Prince Philippe ever being in the same rotation at well under 50%. Add Morrow to the bet and I’d make it 20%.

I think Gil Meche might have been in that dream rotation with Nageotte, Blackley and Anderson at one point.

]]> By: joser http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/comment-page-1/#comment-197919 joser Tue, 19 Jun 2007 02:39:05 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/#comment-197919 Not to mention Aumont is more than two years away from the majors. Morrow may well be also, as a starter. In fact, if Dave's fears prove correct, he may never be a starter. Not to mention Aumont is more than two years away from the majors. Morrow may well be also, as a starter. In fact, if Dave’s fears prove correct, he may never be a starter.

]]> By: Chris Miller http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/comment-page-1/#comment-197851 Chris Miller Mon, 18 Jun 2007 21:44:18 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/#comment-197851 No offense to Morrow or Aumont, but to just expect them (and Felix) to become a 1-2-3 punch is wishful thinking. It just reminds me of all the Nageotte/Blackley/Anderson talk a few years ago. Nice how that turned out. No offense to Morrow or Aumont, but to just expect them (and Felix) to become a 1-2-3 punch is wishful thinking. It just reminds me of all the Nageotte/Blackley/Anderson talk a few years ago. Nice how that turned out.

]]> By: Chris Miller http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/comment-page-1/#comment-197847 Chris Miller Mon, 18 Jun 2007 21:41:47 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/06/18/size-of-the-swing/#comment-197847 <i>Job 4: Send down Morrow, let him and Aumonte develop to be 2-3 pitchers behind Felix and let us have one of the best possible rotations in two years.</i> Oh man, that's too funny. Job 4:
Send down Morrow, let him and Aumonte develop to be 2-3 pitchers behind Felix and let us have one of the best possible rotations in two years.

Oh man, that’s too funny.

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