Comments on: Future Forty Updated for July

By: Andy Stallings

Andy Stallings — Fri, 06 Jul 2007 19:56:30 +0000

Curious — any idea if Triunfel in High Desert is something that will last? Was it expected?

By: Rick L

Rick L — Thu, 05 Jul 2007 13:28:27 +0000

DMZ: I will look up the studies, but it seems counter to everything Dave has researched about Felix’s pitch selection. He is getting lit up because someone is calling for fastball after fastball. If that somebody is the cathcer, and theoretically it is, this definitely affects the game. So does calling pitches in a predictable pattern. But I will try to find the studies you mention.

By: DMZ

DMZ — Wed, 04 Jul 2007 19:23:04 +0000

There is no evidence that catchers differ significantly in how they affect the game through pitch calling. See many studies by Woolner, others.

By: Rick L

Rick L — Wed, 04 Jul 2007 18:03:10 +0000

Catchers also can more obviously save runs by blocking wild pitches with runners on base. A good block with a runner on third is worth a run. I think this is the posiiton where defense matters the most.

By: Rick L

Rick L — Wed, 04 Jul 2007 18:00:27 +0000

Of all the positions on the field, catcher is the one where the defensive contribution is the hardest for a fan (or anyone else not on the field or in the dugout) to guage. IF the catcher is calling the game, that can make or break a pticher (see all the discussions about pitch selection lately). Yes, the pitcher can shake the catcher off, but this can be frustrating to both, as the confrontations between Freddy Garcia and Dan Wilson demonstrate. In addition to pitch selection,, there is also the matter of calling the location of the pitch. The catcher also has a role in setting the defense. These contributions can add (or subtract) runs that are hard to quantify.

By: eponymous coward

eponymous coward — Wed, 04 Jul 2007 08:35:26 +0000

There might not be any good cases where defense HAS made up for the bad offense.

Ok, then why don’t we stick Richie Sexson or Ben Broussard at catcher? Or why don’t the Red Sox stick Manny there?

Obviously defense counts for SOMETHING at C, or we wouldn’t see a bunch of no-hit guys play there (just like at SS and 2B). I guess the question becomes can a C make up 20-30 runs on defense in a season? If so, a PLAYER who’s +20 to +30 on offense is valuable… so the converse is valuable too.

By: SoulofaCitizen

SoulofaCitizen — Wed, 04 Jul 2007 08:03:27 +0000

Re books, I’d echo the recommendaton for David Duncan’s The Brothers K. It isn’t just about baseball, but baseball weaves throughout it, along with love, politics, family and living as a late twentieth century American. It’s one of my favorite novels.

By: hardball24

hardball24 — Wed, 04 Jul 2007 07:28:25 +0000

Dave, at one point you said that Baseball Prospectus didn’t know what they were doing when they had Jeremy Reed as high as their #2 prospect (2004). After checking out BP this year, is there anyone that you think stands out as ranked way too high/low?

By: Dave

Dave — Wed, 04 Jul 2007 06:10:17 +0000

You really should keep more of an open mind about him, though. You have to keep an eye on young guys that have a breadth of talent that leaves them many different paths in which to develop. Heâ€™s a much better prospect than say, Tuiasosopo.

Saunders doesn’t have breadth of talent – he has a distinct lack of any one major league skill. It’s not that he’s good at everything – it’s that he’s not great at anything. It’s true that he doesn’t have any gaping flaws – he’s decent defensively in a corner outfield spot, he makes some contact, he has a bit of power, he draws some walks, he runs fine – but he doesn’t have any real strengths, either.

You know who Saunders reminds me of? Dave Krynzel, just a few inches taller.

Is it possible that I’m totally wrong? Sure. I missed badly on Adam Jones when the M’s drafted him. I thought his future was going to be on the mound after he’d fail as a hitter. He proved me wrong. Saunders has a long ways to go before he does the same, though.

By: Typical Idiot Fan

Typical Idiot Fan — Wed, 04 Jul 2007 06:05:35 +0000

One thing people need to understand is that Dave’s ratings change as the player takes a step up or a step back, or depending on the organizations philosophy on a player.

Morrow was a 8 until the Mariners stupidly promoted him this year and earmarked him a reliever. Now he’s a 7, he could be an 8 again if he goes down and learns to start instead. Jeff Clement was an 8 too, but went down to a 7 due to concerns about his bat speed. Adam Jones was an 8 at one point, now sits at a robust 9. Triunfel was a 9, but now is at the tops of Dave’s list as a potential perennial All-Star.

It’s a trial and error process. So if Mike Suanders does something amazing and takes a huge leap forward, he’ll go from an 5 to whatever Dave feels he warrants. But until then, he’s gonna have to prove he belongs on the board at all.