If all you are trying to say is that Vidro is a better hitter than the average replacement-level player, including the no-hit, all-defense players, then sure, I agree with you. But then your point is hardly relevant, because no sane GM would consider Jason Ellison or Pokey Reese as a full-time DH.

There’s no question that from a strictly offensive perspective, Vidro is above the replacement level and this argument doesn’t really refute that point.

No, replacement level offense for DH’s is 2 wins above replacement level offense for all players. When you look at all potential DH’s you include some players who are above replacement level offense but because of their defensive deficiencies are below replacement level in total (I’m thinking Jack Cust although he probably isn’t the best example). This pushes replacement level offense for DH’s over replacement level offense averaged over all positions.

Conversely, replacement level offense for, say, CF’s is lower than the “average” replacement level offense because of a no-hit, all D player (e.g. Jason Ellison) can, in total, be replacement level and therefore push down replacement level offense for the position.

Vidro’s recent surge has put him almost exactly at league average as a hitter. So, he’s +0 wins offensively. There’s obviously no defensive adjustment needed for a DH, but the DH position gets a -2 win positional adjustment (the most severe of any position, as it should be), so Vidro has been worth about 2 wins less than an average player.

Replacement level is set at about 2 wins below average at every offensive position except catcher, so Vidro has essentially been a replacement level player.”

This may be a better way to evaluate a roster spot, but it doesn’t make a great deal of sense in evaluating Vidro’s contribution strictly as a DH. If we’re talking about a replacement level player at DH then (as you state) we can consider every hitter a potential DH. If we do so and we state (as you’ve stated) that Vidro is at or around league average in hitting, then it would be impossible to conclude that he’s at replacement level in purely offensive terms – replacement level cannot equal league average performance.

What this really argues is that Vidro is at the replacement level when you factor in defence – i.e. that a replacement level player could match Vidro’s contribution to the roster through offence and defence combined (e.g. the replacement player can hit somewhat worse than Vidro, but can also play the outfield as a defensive replacement). However if both these players were full time DH’s and you ignore any defensive contributions, then Vidro’s contribution would be above the replacement level player’s performance. There’s no question that from a strictly offensive perspective, Vidro is above the replacement level and this argument doesn’t really refute that point.

…[blockquote]?

so that only leaves one potential reason

That is a false dichotomy. Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

I’m no expert, but my understanding is that you can’t expect a pitcher to switch from relieving to starting at the big league level for the first time without some “stretching out” in situations where the team’s place in the standings isn’t affected. There’s a big difference between throwing at max effort for an inning or two and pacing yourself for five or six or more innings, facing a lineup several times. That’s why it’s easier to find relievers than starters.

Sean Green in the 8th inning.

.361/.435/.525, OPS+ 162. It’s a relatively small sample size (21 games, 70 PA), so I wonder if it is skewed by a bad early performance or something (didn’t have time to go through the box scores). Also, his 8th inning BABIP is a ridiculous .449.

The way to maximize your credibility is to have a winning team. I have a hard time believing Bavasi would deliberately make the team less optimal just for appearances, whether the audience for that is the rest of baseball or the wild and woolly internet. I highly doubt Bavasi’s future potential employers are going to say “You know what, because you did something that was mentioned first on the internet, we don’t trust your judgment so we’re not going to hire you.” Everything gets mentioned first on the internet, both crazy crap no sane person would do and rational moves that are also getting talked about by scouts and GMs for other teams (such as “promote Adam Jones”). If nobody in baseball is allowed to make any move that’s suggested first on a fan website, nobody in baseball is allowed to make any move, period.

No, the only rational reason AJ is still down in AAA is that Bavasi thinks something else is more valuable than whatever Jones would bring to the club — whether that’s team chemistry or respecting his veterans or dangling trade bait, or some combination, or something we haven’t imagined.