The idea that the M’s were “built for October play” then suggest that other playoff teams have bad defense/contact pitchers. I don’t think a) that’s likely, b) that’s what Dave is saying here. The variance factor, then, is the idea that the Ms somehow have more “upside” than other teams. I remember a similar thread on The Book blog (here:http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/speaking_of_having_no_clue_as_to_the_efficacy_or_wisdom_of_the_sacrifice_at/)
where Dave argued with others, Lichtman (and I with a short note) among them, he’d rather have Beltre than others with the same projection because he has greater variance in his results, and therefore though has the possibility to do worse than others, also has the same possibility to do better. (In that thread, by the way, Dave and Mitchel considered making a wager on who was right. Did Dave take up Mitchel’s offer? And who is winning that bet right now if he did?)

I think Beltre, then, becomes a good metaphor for the team as a whole. And basically, what Dave is saying is that if the Ms get lucky, they will have a better chance of winning than if another team gets lucky. Okay. Maybe. But to think that we are “built for october” because we might get lucky is ridiculous. Any team can get lucky. If the Yankees get lucky, then forget about it. I’m saying, thank god the Ms are luckier than other teams this year.

I hope this made sense. It’s 4 in the morning and I’m only up cos I just got dumped.

While they may both put the same number of baserunners on over a year, the A offense is almost certainly going to exhibit a lot more variance in how it does day-to-day, series-to-series, and even month-to-month than B does.

In practice, of course, it’s a lot more complicated

Does this not contradict the recent post made about how there is no such thing as a “hot streak” for a player? Is there any reason to think the Ms, as a team, can blister the ball for any period of weeks any more than a single player can do that? You can find winning streaks/offensive streaks on any team during any part of the season due to random variance, why is this any more true for the Ms than any other team? Can we assign a predictive value to the team as a whole any more than we can do for a player? I don’t think so. The way I read it, it simply says that the Ms can get lucky and win. It reminds me of a friend with whom I once went to a casino, and he said: “you can win, but you have to be lucky.”

Or maybe:

Think of your body like Jello; remove an ingredient (your brain) and the whole thing changes. Or maybe not.

Nice platitudinous post. Are you really Bob Finnegan posting from retirement?

As for:
“Stay positive. We need your energy and enthusiasm focused on the ‘good’ rather than the bad or the ugly.”

Wow. Do you want us to win one for the Gipper, too? It ain’t over till it’s over? Don’t stop believin’? Nobody, and I mean nobody, comes into our house and pushes us around?

A mind is a terrible thing to waste.

I thought personal attacks were against this blogs conduct policy.

I thought people had the common sense to actually read what’s been posted before.

Don’t troll and behave.

Vidro has no power because Ichiro doesn’t steal enough bases?

I cannot possibly roll my eyes hard enough.

Next topic: Will the Angels be able to sustain their record at home? That seems to be a real key as to whether we can overcome them or not.