I agree that AJ has a ton of tools in his toolbox. But I think we’ve pigeonholed Wlad as an all-or-nothing hitter that he really isn’t.

Minors career: 345/405/584, 96 BB/115 K in 1071 AB

Majors career: 324/391/579, 604 BB/728 K in 5985 AB.

Wlad’s career? 275/345/522, 193BB/537 K in 1868 AB.

If you can’t differentiate between a player who in his major/minor league career has hit .330 and struck out in only 10% of his plate appearances with a player with .275 average and 25% strikeout rate (all in the minors), I don’t know what to tell you.

I can think of another “hacker” with a similar russian first name, and he is a perennial Allstar named Vladimir Guerrero.

Good, let him walk. Who cares? Not me, really.

To me, again, the only way this makes sense is if you have a FO that sees literally NO opportunity cost. In other words, paying Guillen $10MM per year won’t affect a single other piece of your club: there’s nobody else you have to play RF and the money couldn’t be better distributed elsewhere. I think that’s pretty damning in terms of the creativity or ability of the FO to build a ballclub (if all they can see is Guillen vs. Wlad and if it’s Wlad we just eat the $10MM).

To me, the FO has duped itself into thinking we are the Yankees, a perennial contender that just needs some consistency and we’ll make the postseason. But what is the young core of this team? Who can we reasonably expect to improve next year? LF with Jones, 2B and SS with Lopez and Yuni, maybe Felix and Morrow. OTOH, we should expect decline from Guillen, Ichiro, Sexson, Ibanez, Vidro, Johjima, Washburn, Batista, and a few guys in the bullpen, probably. This is not a playoff team as currently formed, IMO, so we shouldn’t be looking merely to minimize risk.

Overall, the track record is better for players like Jones with a toolbox filled with good tools than players like Wlad with one great tool and so-so other ones. In addition, maintaining a walk rate from the minors to the majors is one of the more difficult things to do, so a player like Wlad who relies more heavily on walks may have a harder time adjusting to the majors. And overall, Jones (314/382/586) put up a better line in Tacoma than Wlad (295/368/526).

As for defense, the only places I have ever seen someone suggest that Wlad’s defense is a liability are in the comments on this site. It is just that Jones projects as a plus defender, while Wlad projects as merely average. In terms of the “why Jones now, but not Wlad?” question, Jones can still be an asset even if he struggles at the plate, while Wlad must hit right away or he becomes a liability.

I am certainly not anti-Wlad or advocating dumping him. I like him, a lot. He has the type of power and ability to hit to the opposite field to overcome the Safeco effect on right-handed hitters. He made a legitimate breakthrough this year. But he needs to not only sustain it, but build on it, like Jones did from 2006 to 2007, and he is more likely to continue to develop in Tacoma than Seattle.

Yes, Wlad’s been consistently hacktastic until this year. Jones has been more consistent, though he’s also had to deal with strikeouts.
The point to me is that Wlad was always a hell of a lot more inexperienced. He’s from Curacao, and I’m betting he never played as much organized baseball as half the people in this comment thread. He was always going to take more time. So now, when he’s made some leap in his skillset, we chuck him? I know that’s not what you’re arguing…I’m just pointing out that relying on Wlad’s older track record may obscure more than it clarifies.
The scouting thing is key, and I think Jones does have an advanced approach at the plate for his age (he’s younger than Wlad). But it really should be mentioned that he’s struck out more and walked less than Wlad, despite repeating AAA. Again, this isn’t to say AJ is overrated. He’s awesome. But Wlad needs to get credit for building on his 2006 and making a huge leap in his approach at the plate. Yes, he still reverts to hacking mode at times, and even AAA pitchers can exploit it. But so does AJ, so does everyone. It’s not a fatal flaw.

I still think a lot of this has to do with the org possibly viewing Wlad as a *defensive* liability. Keeping Guillen and ditching Wlad on that basis truly is letting 2004 data drive 2008 decisions.

If you want to call it a choice between Balentien and Guillen I’d take the choice that would be better on the field and base-paths, could produce similar with the bat costs next to nothing and doesn’t lock down that spot if you decide there’s a better option in 3 Months, 8 Months or 2 years. It’s about a $28M difference over the next 3 years to have yet another player who is a sub-par defensive OFer.

Sign Guillen, trade Ibanez and DFA Turbo. Since I don’t think the first leads to the other 2, this is a foolish, wasteful strategy.

No, per Cot’s, if the M’s pick up the team option, Guillen had the right to void it (the M’s had the same right if Guillen exercised his player option). Guillen is essentially a free agent.

So it’s worth pointing out that Balentien’s actually done better on that than Jones.

Balentien is certainly going in the right direction, but he has struggled throughout his career with strikeouts and hitting for average. Jones has been more consistent and has hit for a decent average throughout the minors.

I think some of difference between them comes from the scouting side. For example, Kevin Goldstein had a piece on them not too long ago where scouts were praising Jones for his advanced approach at the plate (for his age) and his willingness to apply what he has learned to his game, while pointing out that Wlad still tends to revert into hacking mode (even if AAA pitchers cannot exploit it).

The more well-rounded players have a better track record than players who skew more toward the three true outcome.