Comments on: My second thought on Guillen/Balentien http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/ Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion Fri, 10 Feb 2012 01:19:43 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: byronebyronian http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/comment-page-2/#comment-231883 byronebyronian Sat, 01 Sep 2007 01:06:37 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/#comment-231883 #20 - With all due respect, I agree that Arte Moreno is a good owner but he won't just spend any amount as you say. His GM tends to hold onto their prospects way too long - even when there is a need and he could trade one. He's also balked at spending big bucks on recent free agents and instead went after cheaper options (while somewhat overpaying). #20 – With all due respect, I agree that Arte Moreno is a good owner but he won’t just spend any amount as you say. His GM tends to hold onto their prospects way too long – even when there is a need and he could trade one. He’s also balked at spending big bucks on recent free agents and instead went after cheaper options (while somewhat overpaying).

]]> By: joser http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/comment-page-2/#comment-231164 joser Fri, 31 Aug 2007 01:31:20 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/#comment-231164 Yeah, and the only other team with a winning record on schedule for the Yankees for the rest of the season? The M's. (Well, Toronto is technically over .500 at the moment but I wouldn't count on them ending the season that way). Seriously, the M's have an uphill batttle to win the wild card, and a schedule stuffed full of contenders isn't going to help (though I have to say they have a better shot at winning those games against Cleveland today than they had back in April). Yeah, and the only other team with a winning record on schedule for the Yankees for the rest of the season? The M’s. (Well, Toronto is technically over .500 at the moment but I wouldn’t count on them ending the season that way). Seriously, the M’s have an uphill batttle to win the wild card, and a schedule stuffed full of contenders isn’t going to help (though I have to say they have a better shot at winning those games against Cleveland today than they had back in April).

]]> By: Tropics iRE http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/comment-page-2/#comment-231144 Tropics iRE Fri, 31 Aug 2007 01:06:58 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/#comment-231144 ouch... the yankers beat the bo-sox 5-0 today :( time to cowboy up M's -Ti ouch… the yankers beat the bo-sox 5-0 today :(

time to cowboy up M’s

-Ti

]]> By: vin http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/comment-page-2/#comment-231143 vin Fri, 31 Aug 2007 00:59:14 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/#comment-231143 RE: #76 It's funny to refer back to the previous DMZ Guillen post because a post injury Garcia is exactly the kinda guy who would sign to pitch for 6.5M and free Moose rides. RE: #76 It’s funny to refer back to the previous DMZ Guillen post because a post injury Garcia is exactly the kinda guy who would sign to pitch for 6.5M and free Moose rides.

]]> By: nwtrev http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/comment-page-2/#comment-231142 nwtrev Fri, 31 Aug 2007 00:53:16 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/#comment-231142 65 - I don't know what that guy's credentials are and I'd like to believe him but <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=caple_jim&id=2997105" rel="nofollow">ESPN has a different viewpoint </a>Nothing groundbreaking in the post that hasn't been discussed here before but I do like the optimism at the end:Teams almost never come back from a five-game deficit in September, but one that did was the 1995 Mariners, who were 8½ behind the Angels at this same point that season. As both teams are well aware, Seattle rallied to force a one-game playoff against Anaheim and win the division. "That's a great club over there, and they'll be there at the end,'' Scioscia said. "We'll have to earn it regardless of whoever we go through.'' 65 – I don’t know what that guy’s credentials are and I’d like to believe him but ESPN has a different viewpoint Nothing groundbreaking in the post that hasn’t been discussed here before but I do like the optimism at the end:Teams almost never come back from a five-game deficit in September, but one that did was the 1995 Mariners, who were 8½ behind the Angels at this same point that season. As both teams are well aware, Seattle rallied to force a one-game playoff against Anaheim and win the division.

“That’s a great club over there, and they’ll be there at the end,” Scioscia said. “We’ll have to earn it regardless of whoever we go through.”

]]> By: MedicineHat http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/comment-page-2/#comment-231141 MedicineHat Fri, 31 Aug 2007 00:52:39 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/#comment-231141 Well, 3/30M is 10M a season on average...for that they could have had this: (From espn.com) PHILADELPHIA -- Freddy Garcia cost the Philadelphia Phillies $10 million for one win. The two-time All-Star right-hander had season-ending shoulder surgery Thursday, nearly three months after he threw his last pitch for the Phillies. Renowned surgeon Dr. James Andrews performed the operation on Garcia's labrum in Birmingham, Ala. The 31-year-old Garcia will be a free agent after this season, and the Phillies won't bring back perhaps the biggest bust in team history. Well, 3/30M is 10M a season on average…for that they could have had this:

(From espn.com)
PHILADELPHIA — Freddy Garcia cost the Philadelphia Phillies $10 million for one win.

The two-time All-Star right-hander had season-ending shoulder surgery Thursday, nearly three months after he threw his last pitch for the Phillies.

Renowned surgeon Dr. James Andrews performed the operation on Garcia’s labrum in Birmingham, Ala. The 31-year-old Garcia will be a free agent after this season, and the Phillies won’t bring back perhaps the biggest bust in team history.

]]> By: Grizz http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/comment-page-2/#comment-231139 Grizz Thu, 30 Aug 2007 23:55:11 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/#comment-231139 Elias does a ranking of players by position based on each player's statistics from the past two seasons. The exact formula is private and reputedly very convoluted. Free agents in the top 30% at their position are Type A, and free agents in the 31%-50% range are Type B. Compensation for losing a Type A free agent is a conditional first-round pick from the signing team (if the signing team's pick is no. 15 or higher, the team losing the free agent gets the signing team's second-round pick) plus a supplemental first-round pick. Type B compensation is a supplemental first-round pick only. As for Guillen, because the rankings are not generally available until they come out, one can only guess at his status. But considering that Guillen was hurt last year (and not very good when he did play), it is doubtful that he qualifies as a Type A and uncertain that he qualifies as a Type B. Elias does a ranking of players by position based on each player’s statistics from the past two seasons. The exact formula is private and reputedly very convoluted.

Free agents in the top 30% at their position are Type A, and free agents in the 31%-50% range are Type B. Compensation for losing a Type A free agent is a conditional first-round pick from the signing team (if the signing team’s pick is no. 15 or higher, the team losing the free agent gets the signing team’s second-round pick) plus a supplemental first-round pick. Type B compensation is a supplemental first-round pick only.

As for Guillen, because the rankings are not generally available until they come out, one can only guess at his status. But considering that Guillen was hurt last year (and not very good when he did play), it is doubtful that he qualifies as a Type A and uncertain that he qualifies as a Type B.

]]> By: msb http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/comment-page-2/#comment-231138 msb Thu, 30 Aug 2007 23:53:50 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/#comment-231138 MLB uses the Elias Player Rankings, and Elias ranks them using their own arcane evaluation of the past two years of performance. The players are grouped by position (outfielders, first basemen and DHs are all lumped in together) and then by ranking. with the new CBA, "losing such a "Type A" player -- one defined as the top 20 percent of players at his position beginning in 2007 -- will continue to bring a first-round pick in return. "Type B" free agents will now bring a pick between the first and second rounds, rather than the first-round pick, for the club that loses the player. There no longer will be compensation for losing "Type C" free agents, or mediocre players." MLB uses the Elias Player Rankings, and Elias ranks them using their own arcane evaluation of the past two years of performance. The players are grouped by position (outfielders, first basemen and DHs are all lumped in together) and then by ranking.

with the new CBA, “losing such a “Type A” player — one defined as the top 20 percent of players at his position beginning in 2007 — will continue to bring a first-round pick in return. “Type B” free agents will now bring a pick between the first and second rounds, rather than the first-round pick, for the club that loses the player. There no longer will be compensation for losing “Type C” free agents, or mediocre players.”

]]> By: _David_ http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/comment-page-2/#comment-231137 _David_ Thu, 30 Aug 2007 23:18:09 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/#comment-231137 How exactly does past performance get taken into account when determining free agent type? Would the Mariners get any kind of draft pick for Guillen? How exactly does past performance get taken into account when determining free agent type? Would the Mariners get any kind of draft pick for Guillen?

]]> By: Grizz http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/comment-page-2/#comment-231134 Grizz Thu, 30 Aug 2007 22:58:28 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2007/08/29/my-second-thought-on-guillenbalentien/#comment-231134 Following up on Mat's comment, Guillen’s career OPS splits are 764 v. LHP/796 v. RHP. Thus, his 740 v. RHP this year is not too far off, especially considering the Safeco effect on right-handed hitters. His BABIP v. LHP this year is .380. While this does not fully account for his 1.087 OPS v. LHP, it does suggest that a fair amount of his success against LHP is not sustainable. Following up on Mat’s comment, Guillen’s career OPS splits are 764 v. LHP/796 v. RHP. Thus, his 740 v. RHP this year is not too far off, especially considering the Safeco effect on right-handed hitters. His BABIP v. LHP this year is .380. While this does not fully account for his 1.087 OPS v. LHP, it does suggest that a fair amount of his success against LHP is not sustainable.

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