When the M’s were on their tear lots of people were pointing to the pythagorean RS-RA numbers and saying it couldn’t continue (and the Yankees, who were underperforming their numbers to an even greater degree), while others (often with appeals to “chemistry” and “grit” and “intangibles”) kept insisting that wins are wins and none of those other numbers matter — and those are the people who were surprised by a “collapse” when it turned out those other numbers were predictive after all. As a matter of fact, far from calling this a collapse, we should be calling it a victory: the Mariners still are over-achieving — before the season not many people were predicting they’d be over .500, and based on the RS-RA they still shouldn’t be.

But should we attribute that over-achievement to MacLaren? No, that’s in spite of him, because I’m sure we can all think of some games (every one that featured Parrish or White, for example) that the M’s would’ve won if not for his decisions. If you observe someone doing something stupid, but through sheer luck they get a positive result, do you then conclude that you were wrong and they aren’t stupid, or that you were right and they were just lucky? If you go to Vegas and run up some winnings at the craps tables, do we conclude you’re better at rolling dice than anyone else? And when you play long enough and inevitably lose everything, do we call that a collapse? It may feel like one from the inside, but it’s clearly not. Your luck just ran out.

Clearly, we want more qualities from a manager than dumb luck.

That being said, it’s still baseball season? I thought that ended once the Hawks begin playing.

They were in a race, WINNING the race, and promptly went on a 3-15 tear. If you blow it so quickly and so thoroughly… I don’t see how you call it anything but a major collapse.

I don’t think just because the lead was only three games, it can’t be a collapse. Look at it this way… if Team A and Team B had duked it out all season and got the the end of the season tied, then Team A lost the next 7 games… I don’t think there is any doubt but that you could call that a collapse.

And pre-season expectations are irrelevant once you get to the last week in August with a playoff race lead.

I think the last week in August is late enough, and losing 9 games in a row after you get in front is ugly enough that it absolutely qualifies as a major collapse.

Am I surprised? No. Did they completely collapse? Yes.

And don’t forget they weren’t expected to go anywhere, and in fact didn’t really show much for really the first half of the season (everybody had written them off when they tanked in interleague, you might remember). If the Angels hadn’t been dragged down by injuries the division wouldn’t have been close, and if the Yankees wins had been more evenly distributed across the season, the wild-card wouldn’t have been close either. The M’s happened to be outdoing themselves just when their rivals were at their worst. It happens sometimes, but it doesn’t mean that a return to form by everyone is a “collapse” by somebody.