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	<title>Comments on: Wrap Up, Part One</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/</link>
	<description>Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion</description>
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		<title>By: tangotiger</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/comment-page-4/#comment-240028</link>
		<dc:creator>tangotiger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Oct 2007 20:48:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/#comment-240028</guid>
		<description>It doesn&#039;t have to be necessary for an offensive stat.  In fact, you don&#039;t want to do it.

However, if you are trying to &quot;describe&quot; something, you want the positional adjustment, since the reader will be thinking it anyway.  Jeter&#039;s offense is highly regarded because he is a SS, and wouldn&#039;t be so highly regarded if he was a LF.

In any case, you want all three components (offense, defense, position).  Part of the confusion seems to be that Dave only presented two of the three here.

&quot;normalizing to the position-specific or group-specific averages themselves should be okay&quot;... as long as you don&#039;t just use a 1-yr average.  It&#039;s nonsensical to think that the average RF = average DH, if we know that the RF hit better and fields better.  Same with saying SS = 2B.  (Over the long haul, the average 2B will hit better than the average SS.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It doesn&#8217;t have to be necessary for an offensive stat.  In fact, you don&#8217;t want to do it.</p>
<p>However, if you are trying to &#8220;describe&#8221; something, you want the positional adjustment, since the reader will be thinking it anyway.  Jeter&#8217;s offense is highly regarded because he is a SS, and wouldn&#8217;t be so highly regarded if he was a LF.</p>
<p>In any case, you want all three components (offense, defense, position).  Part of the confusion seems to be that Dave only presented two of the three here.</p>
<p>&#8220;normalizing to the position-specific or group-specific averages themselves should be okay&#8221;&#8230; as long as you don&#8217;t just use a 1-yr average.  It&#8217;s nonsensical to think that the average RF = average DH, if we know that the RF hit better and fields better.  Same with saying SS = 2B.  (Over the long haul, the average 2B will hit better than the average SS.)</p>
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		<title>By: Gabriel</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/comment-page-4/#comment-239983</link>
		<dc:creator>Gabriel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Oct 2007 17:45:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/#comment-239983</guid>
		<description>Also, this normalizing scheme does seem to be injecting defensive considerations into an offensive measure, which I&#039;m not sure is necessary. It&#039;s basically adding a caveat related to defense, saying &quot;yes, players of position X have lower offensive numbers than position Y, but that&#039;s because they have stricter criteria for defense at that position.&quot; Why not keep offensive and defensive stats separate and have the player&#039;s overall value determined by the combination? I see the point of your normalization, I&#039;m just not sure it&#039;s necessary for an offensive stat.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Also, this normalizing scheme does seem to be injecting defensive considerations into an offensive measure, which I&#8217;m not sure is necessary. It&#8217;s basically adding a caveat related to defense, saying &#8220;yes, players of position X have lower offensive numbers than position Y, but that&#8217;s because they have stricter criteria for defense at that position.&#8221; Why not keep offensive and defensive stats separate and have the player&#8217;s overall value determined by the combination? I see the point of your normalization, I&#8217;m just not sure it&#8217;s necessary for an offensive stat.</p>
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		<title>By: Gabriel</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/comment-page-4/#comment-239982</link>
		<dc:creator>Gabriel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Oct 2007 17:39:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/#comment-239982</guid>
		<description>Dave, you&#039;re saying that because of the filtering you describe in comment 45, it doesn&#039;t make sense to normalize, for example, SS and 2B to the same baseline, since the SS pool is more restricted. Yet in the original post you mention that in 2007 the offensive numbers were about the same for SS and 2B. Was 2007 just a fluke in that regard? If there are offensive differences between positions or groups of positions, normalizing to the position-specific or group-specific averages themselves should be okay, rather than doing a more manual weighting of +5, -5, etc.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dave, you&#8217;re saying that because of the filtering you describe in comment 45, it doesn&#8217;t make sense to normalize, for example, SS and 2B to the same baseline, since the SS pool is more restricted. Yet in the original post you mention that in 2007 the offensive numbers were about the same for SS and 2B. Was 2007 just a fluke in that regard? If there are offensive differences between positions or groups of positions, normalizing to the position-specific or group-specific averages themselves should be okay, rather than doing a more manual weighting of +5, -5, etc.</p>
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		<title>By: tangotiger</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/comment-page-4/#comment-239981</link>
		<dc:creator>tangotiger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Oct 2007 17:17:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/#comment-239981</guid>
		<description>Here&#039;s a couple of therads that you might find interesting:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/defense_spectrum/

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/replacement_level_fielding/</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here&#8217;s a couple of therads that you might find interesting:<br />
<a href="http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/defense_spectrum/" rel="nofollow">http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/defense_spectrum/</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/replacement_level_fielding/" rel="nofollow">http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/replacement_level_fielding/</a></p>
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		<title>By: tangotiger</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/comment-page-4/#comment-239979</link>
		<dc:creator>tangotiger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Oct 2007 14:21:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/#comment-239979</guid>
		<description>Still, that wouldn&#039;t necessarily be the case every year.

As well, if you only look at the top 8 DH in playing time, you need to look at the top 8 at each position to make the comparison fair.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Still, that wouldn&#8217;t necessarily be the case every year.</p>
<p>As well, if you only look at the top 8 DH in playing time, you need to look at the top 8 at each position to make the comparison fair.</p>
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		<title>By: Mike Snow</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/comment-page-4/#comment-239912</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike Snow</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Oct 2007 06:24:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/#comment-239912</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;If we looked at only full-time designated hitters, weâ€™d see that they are, indeed, the best hitters of any position.&lt;/i&gt;

That&#039;s pretty easily done. Cumulative line for all DHs this year who qualified for the batting title: .285/.390/.487.

That group includes Ortiz, Vidro, Thomas, Thome, Hafner, Sheffield, Cust, and Huff. I included the latter two because they played DH more frequently than they played any position in the field, and consistent with the interpretation, they drag the averages down. Notable full-time DHs who did not qualify: Piazza (injury, shared time with Cust) and Sosa.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>If we looked at only full-time designated hitters, weâ€™d see that they are, indeed, the best hitters of any position.</i></p>
<p>That&#8217;s pretty easily done. Cumulative line for all DHs this year who qualified for the batting title: .285/.390/.487.</p>
<p>That group includes Ortiz, Vidro, Thomas, Thome, Hafner, Sheffield, Cust, and Huff. I included the latter two because they played DH more frequently than they played any position in the field, and consistent with the interpretation, they drag the averages down. Notable full-time DHs who did not qualify: Piazza (injury, shared time with Cust) and Sosa.</p>
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		<title>By: tangotiger</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/comment-page-4/#comment-239904</link>
		<dc:creator>tangotiger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Oct 2007 06:06:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/#comment-239904</guid>
		<description>&quot;then rate the average SS as being equal to the average CF?&quot; should say
&quot;then rate the average SS as being equal to the average 2B?&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;then rate the average SS as being equal to the average CF?&#8221; should say<br />
&#8220;then rate the average SS as being equal to the average 2B?&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: tangotiger</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/comment-page-4/#comment-239903</link>
		<dc:creator>tangotiger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Oct 2007 06:05:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/#comment-239903</guid>
		<description>If Ortiz is a -10 fielder at 1B relative to all 1B, and he gets the -10 1B penalty, if you move him to DH, shouldn&#039;t he get something close to a -20 penalty?  That&#039;s WHY he is a DH, because his fielding is below the -10 acceptable level.  

(It comes out to -15 instead of -20, because it&#039;s harder to DH.  You give them a +5 more &quot;hitting off the bench&quot; runs, so that the overall penalty is -15.)

***

If this was high school, your best fielders are at SS, CF, maybe 3B and LF.  Now, if you were to compare to the average player at each position, the average SS = average 2B = average DH.  But, that&#039;s ludicrous isn&#039;t it?  If every team&#039;s best player is at SS or CF, how can you then rate the average SS as being equal to the average CF?

The average QB is not equal to the average OT is he?

That&#039;s the point.  You have to approach this from reality.  And the reality is that not every position is necessarily equal, even if you need to have someone man each position.

Did you know that in the early50s that the offensive output of the CF was HIGHER than 1B?  Would any sane person conclude that the average 1B at that time was equal to the average CF?  Clearly the average CF is a better fielder than the average 1B.  If he&#039;s also a better hitter, then the average CF at that time must have been better than the average 1B.

Approach this from a reality perspective, not from a &quot;let me fit everything into a nice matrix&quot; perspective.  Mathematical gymnastics we don&#039;t need.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If Ortiz is a -10 fielder at 1B relative to all 1B, and he gets the -10 1B penalty, if you move him to DH, shouldn&#8217;t he get something close to a -20 penalty?  That&#8217;s WHY he is a DH, because his fielding is below the -10 acceptable level.  </p>
<p>(It comes out to -15 instead of -20, because it&#8217;s harder to DH.  You give them a +5 more &#8220;hitting off the bench&#8221; runs, so that the overall penalty is -15.)</p>
<p>***</p>
<p>If this was high school, your best fielders are at SS, CF, maybe 3B and LF.  Now, if you were to compare to the average player at each position, the average SS = average 2B = average DH.  But, that&#8217;s ludicrous isn&#8217;t it?  If every team&#8217;s best player is at SS or CF, how can you then rate the average SS as being equal to the average CF?</p>
<p>The average QB is not equal to the average OT is he?</p>
<p>That&#8217;s the point.  You have to approach this from reality.  And the reality is that not every position is necessarily equal, even if you need to have someone man each position.</p>
<p>Did you know that in the early50s that the offensive output of the CF was HIGHER than 1B?  Would any sane person conclude that the average 1B at that time was equal to the average CF?  Clearly the average CF is a better fielder than the average 1B.  If he&#8217;s also a better hitter, then the average CF at that time must have been better than the average 1B.</p>
<p>Approach this from a reality perspective, not from a &#8220;let me fit everything into a nice matrix&#8221; perspective.  Mathematical gymnastics we don&#8217;t need.</p>
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		<title>By: scraps</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/comment-page-4/#comment-239880</link>
		<dc:creator>scraps</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Oct 2007 04:13:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/#comment-239880</guid>
		<description>Thanks.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/comment-page-4/#comment-239879</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Oct 2007 04:06:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/2007/10/01/wrap-up-part-one/#comment-239879</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;It is true, though, isnâ€™t it, that the DH position generally does not have the best hitting totals, as logic would lead us to expect from the pool of available players?&lt;/em&gt;

I think the devil is in the details here.  As I mentioned, a lot of teams just don&#039;t even attempt to fill the DH spot with one player, instead using it for other purposes.  If we looked at only full-time designated hitters, we&#039;d see that they are, indeed, the best hitters of any position. 

Because the position offers unique advantages in terms of creativity, adjusting back to a league average of players chosen by the teams won&#039;t give us a realistic assessment of the available options.  Remember, Reggie Willits DH&#039;d 14 times this year.  

As for the -15 run number, there&#039;s no rock solid math behind it, so you can move it to -13 or -14 if you want.  But, there&#039;s no way to argue that it can be higher than -11, as the penalty has to be higher than that of playing first base, and I&#039;d argue that a 1 or 2 run penalty isn&#039;t stiff enough.  If you think its 3 or 4 runs, thats fine - you may be right, and I&#039;m okay with it being -13 or -14 or -15.  The idea is still the same.  

As you&#039;ve probably noticed, I&#039;m not trying to do super precise work here.  I&#039;m not handing out MVPs based on the differences between fractions of a run with this tool.  For the purposes we&#039;re using it for, the conclusions we&#039;re drawing won&#039;t change.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>It is true, though, isnâ€™t it, that the DH position generally does not have the best hitting totals, as logic would lead us to expect from the pool of available players?</em></p>
<p>I think the devil is in the details here.  As I mentioned, a lot of teams just don&#8217;t even attempt to fill the DH spot with one player, instead using it for other purposes.  If we looked at only full-time designated hitters, we&#8217;d see that they are, indeed, the best hitters of any position. </p>
<p>Because the position offers unique advantages in terms of creativity, adjusting back to a league average of players chosen by the teams won&#8217;t give us a realistic assessment of the available options.  Remember, Reggie Willits DH&#8217;d 14 times this year.  </p>
<p>As for the -15 run number, there&#8217;s no rock solid math behind it, so you can move it to -13 or -14 if you want.  But, there&#8217;s no way to argue that it can be higher than -11, as the penalty has to be higher than that of playing first base, and I&#8217;d argue that a 1 or 2 run penalty isn&#8217;t stiff enough.  If you think its 3 or 4 runs, thats fine &#8211; you may be right, and I&#8217;m okay with it being -13 or -14 or -15.  The idea is still the same.  </p>
<p>As you&#8217;ve probably noticed, I&#8217;m not trying to do super precise work here.  I&#8217;m not handing out MVPs based on the differences between fractions of a run with this tool.  For the purposes we&#8217;re using it for, the conclusions we&#8217;re drawing won&#8217;t change.</p>
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