http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2007.html

Thanks to all who participated.

That’s a pitcher who has no business being on a major-league roster, a below-replacement-level first baseman, a 25th man, and a broken-down DH with an empty batting average, all for a legitimate MVP candidate.

Just so we’re clear.

THT’s +/- is a pretty cool system using park effects to weight DER. Another good thing to look at along with UZR or whatever; it’s nice to track back to the team-level stats, which was the point of your post, so forget I said anything….

What strikes me from the RZR/OOZ numbers is that the Seattle infield and outfield were both below average, but the infield was worse than the outfield. In fact, while the outfield’s RZR was below average, its OOZ was above average. Again, I don’t know if that’s just Ichiro stealing from the other outfielders, or if that’s the outfield as a whole showing greater range, but either way, these numbers seem to throw cold water on the UZR numbers suggesting that Ibanez, Guillen AND Ichiro! were each the worst at their position. Their collective performance wasn’t that bad, and the infield was somewhat worse.

The correlation equation is what it is. The equation I posted is an approximation.

I’m also saying that a hitter need 800 PA in each of two samples to get a correlation of r=.80.

So, choose your personal threshhold relevance, and that’ll tell you how much data you need to believe whatever the metric is telling you. Obviously, you know Beltre/2004, so you’re not going to believe some 600 PA for a hitter. Your personal threshhold might require a hitter have a total of 1200 PA perhaps. If that’s you, then your correlation of r=1200/(1200+200) for hitters, or r=.833.

If that’s you, then for a fielder, you need .833=x/(x+400), which means you need 2400 balls in play. For a SS, that’s the equivalent of 480 full games (3 seasons). For a corner OF, that’s 800 full games (5 seasons).

On the other hand, maybe you are happy with an r=.50.

So, decide your tolerance level, and that’ll tell you how much data you need.

Dave says that we have a pretty good handle on how well a team played on defense as a whole.

Tango says that we need 4 years of individual stats before we can gain confidence in individual defensive metrics.

I’m wondering if it would make sense to do something in between, and try to evaluate the respective contributions of the infield and the outfield to a team’s overall defensive performance. One metric I think should be clear would be to compare across the league the percentage of groundballs each team converts into outs. That performance would be entirely the work of the infield.

Another metric–somewhat less clear, but maybe still useful–would be to compare the number of flyballs converted into outs. While the infield has some responsibility there, my uninformed guess is that flyball out percentage would primarily reflect the performance of the outfield. Certainly, flyballs resulting in doubles and triples would be balls that the infielders should have no chance at.

So, is this a viable project? Would it advance the ball?

It’s the canny insider’s thing to do.

186:
I think only now do I really follow exactly where you were going with the AJ to 2B idea (ie, the worst case scenario with Lopez). I think for Safeco, I’d like to have high quality in outfield, so even if I brought in Wlad, I’d still keep Jones out there. Can we make a A Cabrera move of our own? If I were running the club, I think I’d rather bring some AAA player who looks ready to go. I don’t know what that would cost us talent-wise, but we should be able to clean up the Vidro/Sexson/Ibanez/Broussard logjam, right?

re 189:
I understand that was a joke/nightmare, but can you imagine just how bad Kent would be? Kent and Guillen together, bitching about how the kids don’t respect the game (ie, defer to them), etc. We got lucky with Guillen. I can only imagine what happens when he’s joined by another a-hole in the clubhouse.