I agree that today, Lincecum is better. If I had a game tomorrow, I would absolutely choose him.

There’s clearly a serious discrepancy between choosing the “project,” and then sending him up to the majors as if he’s ready. If they thought they were drafting a project, they needed to treat him as such, and not try to use him as a bullpen stop-gap. It doesn’t help him, and in the long term, it doesn’t help the team. For some reason (perhaps the job insecurity Hargrove and Bavasi were facing), they decided that winning today was more important than building to the future. Their decisions didn’t put the future in danger, but it did delay it.

I guess to an extent we agree – the Mariners took a certain amount of risk with Morrow, and the real debate is whether that risk was worth it. I think if Morrow turns out better, regardless of whether it takes a year or two, then they made the right decision. But I understand why you could disagree.

The M’s are going to draft a college arm, there’s no doubt about that. The only question is which one. With Miller and Lincoln unlikely to slide to #5, the M’s will probably be picking from the Lincecum/Hochevar/Scherzer/Morrow group. They’ve been tied to Hochevar quite a bit, but no one knows how much of that is real or just a smokescreen.

While Bavasi has a history of preferring high-reward players, Bob Fontaine is running the draft, and he’s a bit more conservative by nature. Fontaine’s also a big proponant of pitcher’s body types, and Lincecum doesn’t fit the mold of what he generally prefers. I don’t see the M’s going for the UW star, but instead picking between Scherzer or Hochevar, unless Morrow falls.

Nobody expected Miller to be available, and in a sense he wasn’t to any team willing to abide by the Commish’s signing guidelines. Had somebody grabbed Morrow before the M’s pick, they still might not have picked Lincecum. Even a year after the draft the Morrow vs Lincecum argument wasn’t as clear-cut as some like to think; it was even muddier on draft day. Although I wasn’t among them, a lot of people were worried about Lincecum’s durability (and many still are).

Yankees:
Jose Posada, 4/$52.4
Jose Molina 2/$4 million.

Mets:
Yorvit Torrealba 3/$14.4 million.

oh, and Joe Nuxhall has died, and not to sound flip, but I am guessing that means that Neihaus is not winning the Ford Frick award for yet another year.

Once again here’s the argument:

Given the Ms felt that they needed their draft pick to turn around so quickly as evidenced by how they have handled Morrow’s development, the Ms took the third best option available to them on that draft day (why that argument has been turned into the notion that I’m suggesting Morrow is a bust or that he was a terrible pick, I don’t know). Here’s why I argue that:

1. Lincecum has better stuff and better command.

2. Lincecum is doing now what we hope Morrow will be capable of doing preferably sooner than later. Even in the AL, Lincecum would’ve been an above average starter if you adjust his FIP for league. No where have I indicated Morrow’s future is a certainty. In fact, i’ve argued that Morrow’s uncertain future tilts the scales toward Lincecum. Given how volatile pitching prospects are in general, that’s a huge advantage in Lincecum’s favor.

3. Even on draft day, Lincecum was considered to have a short track to the majors while Morrow was thought to need considerably more time to develop.

4. Lets not forget that Lincecum is a local boy. The Ms missed their opportunity to dump WFB (that’s almost like getting a free supplemental draft pick).

So the Ms took the guy most thought would have the slowest trip to the majors and jammed him onto their 25 man roster after a sip of tea in low ball because he’s got a power arm. By choosing him, they saved money in their draft budget but had to give up another legitimate major league power arm in Soriano (I guess that’s the price of being frugal and conservative regarding frame/mechanics though Jeff S’s evaluation of the Soriano trade suggests the Ms really don’t have a lot of credibility when evaluating potential health issues with pitchers). In any event, I’m not really seeing a coherent relationship between player development and their vision at the major league level.

Clearly Morrow’s mechanics and frame make him projectable but if the goal is infusing your rotation ASAP, frame issues aren’t the only consideration. Concerning the notion that Morrow lost out on a month that would’ve turned him into an above average starter, well, lets just say we can agree to disagree on that.

Dave might think I’m full of crap and ultimately agree with the point you’re attempting to make but at least his snark would be righteously aimed at my argument (and not my marital relations-BTW, my wife is pregnant with our 4th child so a case could be made for me spending less time with a woman).