Comments on: PECOTAs are out! Wooooooooo! http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/ Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion Fri, 10 Feb 2012 01:19:43 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: Evan http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/comment-page-2/#comment-251109 Evan Tue, 05 Feb 2008 03:07:59 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/#comment-251109 <em>We’ve talked about Ichiro’s projections here before. The distilled version is that the only player like Ichiro is Ichiro, and by reaching way out to find comparable players, it does him a disservice.</em> The disservice is in only looking at players since 1956. I think you'd find some good comps for Ichiro in the deadball era (Hall of Famer Willie Keeler, for example). We’ve talked about Ichiro’s projections here before. The distilled version is that the only player like Ichiro is Ichiro, and by reaching way out to find comparable players, it does him a disservice.

The disservice is in only looking at players since 1956. I think you’d find some good comps for Ichiro in the deadball era (Hall of Famer Willie Keeler, for example).

]]> By: Breadbaker http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/comment-page-2/#comment-250931 Breadbaker Sun, 03 Feb 2008 12:16:27 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/#comment-250931 While I think there is some regression toward the mean in BP's system, players are also assumed to follow a particular progression that is based on assumptions about aging as well as relating to the progression of their most comparable players. It's not as simple as "up until 27 and then down later," but takes into account that most players lose speed and gain power as they age, for instance. Outliers like Ichiro become really hard to predict in such a system. I also wonder if they have had to adjust their system based on juicers. If Mark McGwire is a comparable for you at an early age, but you're not a juicer, I'd imagine you were more likely to have less power over time, but less likely to simply fall off the shelf and retire. While I think there is some regression toward the mean in BP’s system, players are also assumed to follow a particular progression that is based on assumptions about aging as well as relating to the progression of their most comparable players. It’s not as simple as “up until 27 and then down later,” but takes into account that most players lose speed and gain power as they age, for instance. Outliers like Ichiro become really hard to predict in such a system. I also wonder if they have had to adjust their system based on juicers. If Mark McGwire is a comparable for you at an early age, but you’re not a juicer, I’d imagine you were more likely to have less power over time, but less likely to simply fall off the shelf and retire.

]]> By: JMHawkins http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/comment-page-2/#comment-250928 JMHawkins Sun, 03 Feb 2008 11:07:21 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/#comment-250928 <i>So…they’re saying Dave and Derek can’t do math??? Given this blog????</i> Dave and Derek can do math, making them geeks, not nerds. Geeks can do math, nerds just dress funny. Dave and Derek dress fine. Well, I've never seen what Derek wears on a long ride, so I'll leave a caveat in there. If he looks like an Italian soft drink can on a bicycle, he could be both... Oh, as far as “Everyone in baseball is in the guessing business,” the Mariners executive Dan Evans said. “This makes it a little bit less of a guess.” I'd prefer crap shoot to guessing game. "Baseball's a crap shoot. This just gives you a little bit better idea of the odds." So…they’re saying Dave and Derek can’t do math??? Given this blog????

Dave and Derek can do math, making them geeks, not nerds. Geeks can do math, nerds just dress funny. Dave and Derek dress fine. Well, I’ve never seen what Derek wears on a long ride, so I’ll leave a caveat in there. If he looks like an Italian soft drink can on a bicycle, he could be both…

Oh, as far as

“Everyone in baseball is in the guessing business,” the Mariners executive Dan Evans said. “This makes it a little bit less of a guess.”

I’d prefer crap shoot to guessing game. “Baseball’s a crap shoot. This just gives you a little bit better idea of the odds.”

]]> By: gwangung http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/comment-page-2/#comment-250927 gwangung Sun, 03 Feb 2008 09:38:14 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/#comment-250927 <blockquote> No, no, no. It’s “geek” that’s not an insult. Nerd still is. Geeks can do math, nerds can’t. </blockquote> So...they're saying Dave and Derek can't do math??? Given this blog???? I'm getting confused...

No, no, no. It’s “geek” that’s not an insult. Nerd still is. Geeks can do math, nerds can’t.

So…they’re saying Dave and Derek can’t do math??? Given this blog????

I’m getting confused…

]]> By: JMHawkins http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/comment-page-2/#comment-250926 JMHawkins Sun, 03 Feb 2008 09:00:03 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/#comment-250926 <i>Given Bill Gates, Paul Allen, et al…tell me again WHY is being a nerd an insult?</i> No, no, no. It's "geek" that's not an insult. Nerd still is. Geeks can do math, nerds can't. <i>“For the growing number of baseball executives bent toward statistical analysis, a certain anticipation builds every off-season for the release of what is known simply as Pecota, Baseball Prospectus’s überforecast of every player’s performance the next season. Most front offices have an employee who consults it - particularly during the free-agent season.</i> But, um, isn't free-agent season pretty much over by the time PECOTA comes out? I guess they could use last year's numbers. Given Bill Gates, Paul Allen, et al…tell me again WHY is being a nerd an insult?

No, no, no. It’s “geek” that’s not an insult. Nerd still is. Geeks can do math, nerds can’t.

“For the growing number of baseball executives bent toward statistical analysis, a certain anticipation builds every off-season for the release of what is known simply as Pecota, Baseball Prospectus’s überforecast of every player’s performance the next season. Most front offices have an employee who consults it – particularly during the free-agent season.

But, um, isn’t free-agent season pretty much over by the time PECOTA comes out? I guess they could use last year’s numbers.

]]> By: doorbot http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/comment-page-2/#comment-250925 doorbot Sun, 03 Feb 2008 07:02:47 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/#comment-250925 Sorry Derek, didn't mean to imply anything. I had just noticed that using the old rough estimate of 10 runs equals one win you'd get the same wins over replacement as in your post. If anyone is interested, PECOTA has 5.3 WARP for Jones and 6.0 WARP for Bedard. That's supposed to include defense, which Upside includes as well. Sorry Derek, didn’t mean to imply anything. I had just noticed that using the old rough estimate of 10 runs equals one win you’d get the same wins over replacement as in your post.

If anyone is interested, PECOTA has 5.3 WARP for Jones and 6.0 WARP for Bedard. That’s supposed to include defense, which Upside includes as well.

]]> By: doorbot http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/comment-page-2/#comment-250924 doorbot Sun, 03 Feb 2008 07:01:25 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/#comment-250924 Sorry Derek, I just noticed that using the old rough estimate of 10 runs equals one win you'd get the same wins over replacement as in your post. If anyone is interested, PECOTA has 5.3 WARP for Jones and 6.0 WARP for Bedard. That's supposed to include defense, which Upside includes as well. Sorry Derek, I just noticed that using the old rough estimate of 10 runs equals one win you’d get the same wins over replacement as in your post.

If anyone is interested, PECOTA has 5.3 WARP for Jones and 6.0 WARP for Bedard. That’s supposed to include defense, which Upside includes as well.

]]> By: gwangung http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/comment-page-2/#comment-250923 gwangung Sun, 03 Feb 2008 06:46:14 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/#comment-250923 <blockquote> “Everyone in baseball is in the guessing business,” the Mariners executive Dan Evans said. “This makes it a little bit less of a guess.” ” </blockquote> Hm. I don't know quite what to say to that.

“Everyone in baseball is in the guessing business,” the Mariners executive Dan Evans said. “This makes it a little bit less of a guess.” ”

Hm.

I don’t know quite what to say to that.

]]> By: JI http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/comment-page-2/#comment-250922 JI Sun, 03 Feb 2008 06:35:18 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/#comment-250922 Via VEB: "For the growing number of baseball executives bent toward statistical analysis, a certain anticipation builds every off-season for the release of what is known simply as Pecota, Baseball Prospectus's überforecast of every player's performance the next season. Most front offices have an employee who consults it - particularly during the free-agent season. No organization uses Pecota in a vacuum, instead incorporating it with other projection techniques like traditional scouting reports. . . . "Everyone in baseball is in the guessing business," the Mariners executive Dan Evans said. "This makes it a little bit less of a guess." " http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/13/sports/baseball/13score.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin Via VEB:

“For the growing number of baseball executives bent toward statistical analysis, a certain anticipation builds every off-season for the release of what is known simply as Pecota, Baseball Prospectus’s überforecast of every player’s performance the next season. Most front offices have an employee who consults it – particularly during the free-agent season.

No organization uses Pecota in a vacuum, instead incorporating it with other projection techniques like traditional scouting reports. . . .

“Everyone in baseball is in the guessing business,” the Mariners executive Dan Evans said. “This makes it a little bit less of a guess.” ”

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/13/sports/baseball/13score.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

]]> By: scott19 http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/comment-page-2/#comment-250921 scott19 Sun, 03 Feb 2008 05:38:02 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/01/pecotas-are-out-wooooooooo/#comment-250921 53: Well, that strategy seemed to work out (at least somewhat) last year for Vancouver's Canucks -- who managed to trade about seven games worth of Todd Bertuzzi (and his baggage) to the Florida Panthers for four years worth of Roberto Luongo. Not a bad haul if you can get it, I'd say...but yeah, the old "sign-and-trade" can sometimes be a tricky proposition. 53: Well, that strategy seemed to work out (at least somewhat) last year for Vancouver’s Canucks — who managed to trade about seven games worth of Todd Bertuzzi (and his baggage) to the Florida Panthers for four years worth of Roberto Luongo.

Not a bad haul if you can get it, I’d say…but yeah, the old “sign-and-trade” can sometimes be a tricky proposition.

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