I dont understand how people are saying its a horrible trade already.

Perhaps they know something you don’t?

We dont know what will happen

And perhaps that’s it?

Hint: You’re making a lot of assumptions that aren’t born out in reality.

Of course not. That’s absurd. Bavasi can’t foresee future bus accidents.

As such, how the prospects we’re sending to Baltimore develop is irrelevant. What matters is how they can reasonably be expected to develop, and by that measure Jones alone makes this a really lousy trade. Throw in the current value of Sherrill and the future likely future value of Tillman and Mickolio, and we’re getting robbed.

“But unlike Jones, we have stronger possibilities to replace [Sherrill] (and it’s somewhat easier to replace a bullpen arm). And an everyday right fielder is more valuable than a bullpen arm.”

The M’s strategy here centers on the assumption that they actually DO have replacements for Jones, as long as Jones is stuck in an outfield corner. obviously, you can disagree with that, but in Wlad the M’s have a guy who’s consistently ranked in the top 100 prospects in baseball. That’s not like Jones (easy top 10), but it’s something.
For one of the first times in their history, the M’s have two prospects who are well regarded at the same position (not pitchers). Obviously one’s a lot better, but I’m sure the M’s believe they’re dealing from depth. There are also OFs further down – from Mike Saunders all the way down to Carroll or Halman. We may not agree with the trade, but the M’s are deeper at OF now than they ever have been.

On the other side, there are a number of candidates to replace Sherrill’s innings as well – but the difference here is that Sherrill already IS the pre-eminent lefty reliever in baseball. RRS or EOF can be a solid, above league average reliever and STILL the team would be worse off. I can see an argument that Jones is easier to replace – knowing full well that this argument would probably skirt around defense.

I’m just trying to think this through from Bavasi’s perspective; not sure I LIKE that perspective, but still…

With this trade the Mariners become the Mercenaries. What position players have come up through the Mariner minor league system and stuck with the team? What does that say about your scouting system that the best it can do is produce cannon fodder for trades? The Mariner payroll is already one of the tops in the leagues (#7 at the start of 2007). Dumping your minor league players instead of promoting them to the big club forces you to spend more on veterans that may or may not be as good. The net effect will be a team that costs more and wins less – not good for the long run. The Angels dumped Bavasi after he restocked their farm system. The Mariners may have waited a year too late. Finally Jones is a terrific athlete and will be sorely missed.

I don’t agree with the premise that an important part of player development isn’t to provide talent to enable trades.

I also don’t agree with the premise that the Ms farm/scouting system is currently in disarray. It’s pretty strong right now and if it wasn’t, the apparent Bedard trade wouldn’t be possible. Even with the trade, it’s still a very interesting system.

I do agree that it will be disappointing to see Jones in another uniform.

They made him miss the SuperBowl to take his physical? Nice. Maybe they can schedule thre press conference on his mother’s birthday.