.277 26HR and 95RBI last year is “done?” How many Mariners put up those numbers last year???

Oh ya, Guillen at 23HR 99RBI…but I was fine with Seattle passing on his 10-12 Million per year wages. At the time we thought we had Adam Jones, Clement and Wladdy on the way.

I wish a few more M’s were “done” like you described Frank…

And don’t forget our beloved Edgar…he wasn’t to mobile at the end of his career. Hence the DH position is born.

“His all-around game has been outstanding,” manager John McLaren said. “His defense, his throwing arm, the way he is running the bases. He has looked really, really good.”

Sadly, there’s no way they’re gonna move him from LF. So go for Thomas, I say, though I don’t really expect it to happen.

For those who think the M’s should sign Thomas now and release him if something better comes along, or platoon him with Player X: Won’t happen. Thomas wants a full-time, starting job – he’s made that very clear. And he’s good enough to land one somewhere. He won’t take a platoon job. And as far as taking him until something better comes along and dropping him… that’s not the Bavasi way. Bavasi is historically VERY good to his players, possibly to a fault. He simply WON’T sign a guy who’s already upset about losing his job with the intend of releasing him again 2 months later. Not a realistic scenario.

Basically, we’ve got to look at how much of an upgrade Thomas is over Vidro, and determine how many runs/wins that increases the M’s projections by. If what I stated above is pretty much true, and we assume that signing Thomas would more or less be this season’s patch to everything but RF, then we’re pretty much looking at that roster for the rest of the season. Here’s the #’s I come up with, using averages of all the projections on fangraphs and the guidelines laid out by Dave. None of this accounts for ballpark factors, which are currently mathematically beyond me.

Thomas: .259/.366/.466, .368 wOBA, 2.73 VORP based on 700 PA
Vidro: .287/.361/.386, .338 wOBA, .98 VORP based on 700 PA

Take into account that 20 games have passed by and they’re each only likely to get ~500 more PA in, and those numbers shift to 1.95 and .70 VORP. Fudge the numbers a little to account for Thomas coming to Safeco and you get him at right around 1 win over Vidro from here on out, which is about what I expected.

So then you have to look at what happens if we don’t sign Thomas, and wait a couple months to bring in a LF and move Ibanez to DH. Now we need to determine if getting this new LF and moving Ibanez to DH for the last 60 games of the season is worth more than that 1 extra win. I’m not terribly savy on the ins and outs of free agency and late season trades, but right now it looks like the options will be of the Griffey/Bradley/Patterson/Wily Mo Pena/Mench/Dunn varieties.

So 80 more games of Vidro/Ibanez would cut Vidros PA’s down from 500 to ~300ish, making the rest of his win contribution .42 VORP. Using the same methodology as above, I get Ibanez at .276/.343/.446, .347 wOBA, and 1.08 wins above replacement level for 700 PA, with his -15 runs (IIRC) defensively factored in. Give him 300 PA as a LF and that cuts down to .46 VORP for his time in LF, and his ~225 PA for his time at DH would be worth .49 VORP. So now we’ve got .42+.46+.49=1.37. (Ibanez for the rest of the season in LF is worth about .77 VORP for reference)

So, I’ll try to summarize this a bit here.
Vidro+Ibanez for the rest of the season (no moves made)=.70+.77=1.47 VORP
Thomas+Ibanez=1.80(fudging for Safeco)+.77=2.57 VORP for the rest of the season
Vidro+Ibanez for ~80 games, and then Ibanez as DH=1.34 VORP

If I’m doing this correctly, that means we’d have to find a LF who is worth around 1.1-1.4 VORP over ~60 games to approximately get to the 2.62 we reach with Thomas and Ibanez, depending upon Thomas’s actual production. Even going on the low end with 1.1 VORP over 60 games, that still means the M’s would need to find a LF with a full-season VORP of ~3 to just break even. I’m too burned out on all this to figure out the VORPs of Griffey or Mo Pena or Patterson or whoever, but I doubt there will be an OF available at the trade deadline good enough to make up for 80 games of Vidro instead of Thomas.

And then there’s the other factors. Vidro gets dangerously close to vesting his option if the M’s wait for a trade, and prospects also have to be given up. Bring in Thomas now and it’s virtually guaranteed Vidro’s option doesn’t vest, and only money is lost – no more minor leaguers. And then there’s the chance that even if a 3-3.5 VORP LF is available another team trades for him, and there’s a chance that a player that good won’t even be available. And with Thomas/Ibanez locked into their roles, the M’s can still pursue trade options to replace Wilkerson – the prospect price to replace both COF spots in trades would be greater than any of us would want.

Sorry for drawing it out so long, but if I did everything more or less correctly it looks like it makes the most sense to sign Thomas now than to wait and see what is available at the end of July.

1. Vidro is a nice hitter for average. .301 Career hitter…Nice. Frank Thomas is a power hitter that strikes fear into a pitcher. Oh, .302 Career hitter by the way.

2. I will now compair Vidro’s best stats at his prime age against Thomas at age 38-39. At age 26 (2000) Vidro had 24HR and 96RBI for his best. At the age of 38 Thomas hit 39 HR 114 for Oakland and at 39 he hit 36HR with 95RBI with a heel problem.

3. What have you done for me lately??

Vidro last 4 years: 34HR 198RBI in 1,732 At Bats, that’s 1 HR every 15 games played.

Thomas last 4 years: 95HR 284RBI in 1,342 At Bats, that’s 1HR every 3-4 games played.

IMPACT would be immediate.

4. Our bench is a joke for AL and weak for NL. Burke, Norton (4th OF/1b), Bloomquist (IF/OF) and Cairo (IF/Pinch Runner??). Bloomquist and Cairo are the same player, with Cairo being an older version. I’m sure Cairo is a great guy, heck I like him…but we already have that guy in Bloomquist. It was a terrible blunder by Bavasi to sign him. Therefore, we NEED Thomas.

4. Bench thoughts…. Cairo or a career .301 hitting switch hitter who will still put a little bit of pressure on Lopez to perform well in Jose Vidro?

FINALLY, think of this lineup folks:

1 Ichiro
2 Lopez/Vidro
3 Ibanez
4 Thomas/[even after a couple of years of watching our starting first baseman I am unaware that his name is Sexson]whom ever is hotter
5 [even after a couple of years of watching our starting first baseman I am unaware that his name is Sexson]/Thomas
6 Beltre
7 Wilkerson
8 Johjima
9 Betancourt

WOW, what an improvement!!!!!!