Comments on: Divisional play math http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/04/20/divisional-play-math/ Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion Thu, 09 Feb 2012 22:05:17 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: currcoug http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/04/20/divisional-play-math/comment-page-1/#comment-262426 currcoug Mon, 21 Apr 2008 16:11:19 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=5064#comment-262426 Trading Sherrill might prove to be the single greatest mistake Bavasi made in the off-season. The injury to J.J., the implosion of O'Flaherty, and poor defense, resulted in the sweep in Baltimore (with Sherrill nailing the coffin). That early season sweep might end up being the difference in the AL West and Wildcard. Trading Sherrill might prove to be the single greatest mistake Bavasi made in the off-season.

The injury to J.J., the implosion of O’Flaherty, and poor defense, resulted in the sweep in Baltimore (with Sherrill nailing the coffin). That early season sweep might end up being the difference in the AL West and Wildcard.

]]> By: joser http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/04/20/divisional-play-math/comment-page-1/#comment-262386 joser Mon, 21 Apr 2008 04:42:16 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=5064#comment-262386 So I guess it's a good thing they won, then. So I guess it’s a good thing they won, then.

]]> By: Breadbaker http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/04/20/divisional-play-math/comment-page-1/#comment-262236 Breadbaker Sun, 20 Apr 2008 21:49:44 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=5064#comment-262236 The last two years, the M's record against the division winner was the difference in the division. It's not so much the 5-9 as the 0-14 that really can bite you in the ass. The last two years, the M’s record against the division winner was the difference in the division. It’s not so much the 5-9 as the 0-14 that really can bite you in the ass.

]]> By: joser http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/04/20/divisional-play-math/comment-page-1/#comment-262121 joser Sun, 20 Apr 2008 18:50:16 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=5064#comment-262121 I think Rickey got that quote from Milton. But it's a good quote, and he's the guy who applied it to baseball. I think Rickey got that quote from Milton. But it’s a good quote, and he’s the guy who applied it to baseball.

]]> By: eponymous coward http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/04/20/divisional-play-math/comment-page-1/#comment-262112 eponymous coward Sun, 20 Apr 2008 18:31:30 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=5064#comment-262112 <em>Obviously the outcomes of those two seasons could be very significant, but I imagine that a team with a certain talent level around 84 wins, will end up winning 87 games (or more) a fair number of times-just out of pure luck.</em> Of course, the converse is that a true talent of 84 wins might end up with 81 just as easily at 87, if we assume luck is equally likely to be bad luck as good luck. I believe in Branch Rickey's aphorism: "Luck is the residue of design". And, well, I don't think the 2008 Mariners are all that awesomely designed. Obviously the outcomes of those two seasons could be very significant, but I imagine that a team with a certain talent level around 84 wins, will end up winning 87 games (or more) a fair number of times-just out of pure luck.

Of course, the converse is that a true talent of 84 wins might end up with 81 just as easily at 87, if we assume luck is equally likely to be bad luck as good luck.

I believe in Branch Rickey’s aphorism: “Luck is the residue of design”. And, well, I don’t think the 2008 Mariners are all that awesomely designed.

]]> By: jlc http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/04/20/divisional-play-math/comment-page-1/#comment-262109 jlc Sun, 20 Apr 2008 18:08:27 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=5064#comment-262109 I always figured the Mariners were counting on good luck to get to the playoffs this season anyway. Minimal injuries, players having solid to career years with no holes. Not really my idea of how to build a winner. I always figured the Mariners were counting on good luck to get to the playoffs this season anyway. Minimal injuries, players having solid to career years with no holes. Not really my idea of how to build a winner.

]]> By: LA M's Fan http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/04/20/divisional-play-math/comment-page-1/#comment-262108 LA M's Fan Sun, 20 Apr 2008 18:04:47 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=5064#comment-262108 My one question about this analysis is: is there really a statistical significance between an 84-win team and an 87-win team? Obviously the <em>outcomes</em> of those two seasons could be very significant, but I imagine that a team with a certain talent level around 84 wins, will end up winning 87 games (or more) a fair number of times-just out of pure luck. I get that the idea is that if they lose Mariners will now have to be luckier than if they win, but on the other hand I think there are so many more opportunities for "luck" in the season that these types of things tend to balance out. It's sort of the ideal gas law applied to baseball. My one question about this analysis is: is there really a statistical significance between an 84-win team and an 87-win team?

Obviously the outcomes of those two seasons could be very significant, but I imagine that a team with a certain talent level around 84 wins, will end up winning 87 games (or more) a fair number of times-just out of pure luck.

I get that the idea is that if they lose Mariners will now have to be luckier than if they win, but on the other hand I think there are so many more opportunities for “luck” in the season that these types of things tend to balance out.

It’s sort of the ideal gas law applied to baseball.

]]> By: Sentinel http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/04/20/divisional-play-math/comment-page-1/#comment-262106 Sentinel Sun, 20 Apr 2008 18:01:24 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=5064#comment-262106 As they say, "You can't win the division in April, but you can certainly lose it." Hopefully things start to turn around some. On a happier note, I just got an inside track on some season tickets from my neighbor. 13 rows behind the visitor's dugout. Should be fun. As they say, “You can’t win the division in April, but you can certainly lose it.” Hopefully things start to turn around some.

On a happier note, I just got an inside track on some season tickets from my neighbor. 13 rows behind the visitor’s dugout. Should be fun.

]]> By: jspektor http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/04/20/divisional-play-math/comment-page-1/#comment-262104 jspektor Sun, 20 Apr 2008 17:49:22 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=5064#comment-262104 Man ... those number are daunting ... we really do need to take this game. Hopefully ... uhh - the stats are wrong? Man … those number are daunting … we really do need to take this game. Hopefully … uhh – the stats are wrong?

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