Comments on: All Time All Mariner Roster: Right Field

By: James T

James T — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 13:26:16 +0000

There’s no park adjustment in Shandler’s calculation of runs created per game. And, I’m not sure what the “2002 formula” is.

Here’s Shandler’s formula, from the glossary of his book. It’s so long, I’m going to break it into two parts.

Numerator:
(H+BB-CS)X(Total bases+(.55xSB))/(AB+BB)

Denominator:
((AB-H+CS)/25.5)

And, you’re right that a lot of those players above Suzuki aren’t great defenders. But, the UZR numbers cited for him at the start of this thread weren’t exactly great, either(0, +2 and -1 from 2004-2006). And Dewan saw him as a very good right fielder but nothing special as a centerfielder. How many of those guys would Suzuki actually pass, as it were, with an all encompassing measure of contributions?

By: hark

hark — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 05:04:42 +0000

James–

What formula for RC does Shandler use? The basic formula…does he include stolen bases, park factor, the 2002 formula? Big question.

Secondly, now subtract from those RC/27 RA/27. What are the defensive contributions of those players? Ortiz, Bonds, Cabrera, Giles, Glaus, Jeter, Soriano, Ibanez, Lowell, Young (and I like Young), Lee and Dunn are all average fielders at best, mediocre if we’re being honest and downright terrible if we’re being brutal. Not to mention that the contributions from regular DH’s are not on the same level as contributions from position players.

By: James T

James T — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 01:25:06 +0000

Alright. I found those runs created per game from Ron Shandler’s 2008 Baseball Forecaster. I think it’s the same as RC/27.

Anyway, Shandler has the numbers for the last 5 years. And his formula takes into account stolen bases and caught stealing.

Suzuki’s rc/game the last 5 years were 5.03 in 2003, then 6.07, 5.17, 5.15 and 5.62. So his average per year is 5.41.

Going laboriously and probably stupidly (there must have been an easier way) through Shandler’s book and looking at every batter, I found 32 other players who were full time players those five years who had higher rc/game averages than Suzuki.

There were another 25 guys who had higher rc/game averages than Suzuki but who missed significant playing time through injury or who had not arrived in MLB until the last few years (Drew, Fielder, Giambi, A. Gonzalez, Carlos Guillen, Holliday, Ryan Howard, Derek Lee, Mauer, Morneau, Hanley Ramirez, Utley and even Varitek among them.)
Here are the 32 guys with higher rc/game than Suzuki’s 5.41 over the last 5 years who were full timers all those years(these are these guys’ averages over that 5 year period):

Bonds – 10.53
Albert Pujols – 8.55
David Ortiz – 8.25
Helton – 8.18
Manny Ramirez – 7.94
Berkman – 7.72
ARod – 7.63
Chipper Jones – 7.53
V. Guerrero – 7.30
Dunn – 7.18
Miguel Cabrera – 7.16
Abreu – 6.95
Delgado – 6.94
Beltran – 6.77
Teixeira – 6.69
Posada – 6.62
Giles – 6.60
Glaus – 6.37
Aramis Ramirez – 6.31
Burrell – 6.31
Kent – 6.26
Konerko – 6.05
Carlos Lee – 5.98
V. Martinez – 5.91
Jeter – 5.87
A. Jones – 5.86
Soriano – 5.82
Ibanez – 5.65
Mike Lowell – 5.64
Michael Young – 5.55
Damon – 5.52
Mike Cameron – 5.47(injured but included)

By: James T

James T — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 01:06:14 +0000

Actually, I think the boston writers treated Boggs very similarly to how Suzuki has been treated in some ways. At first there was a near chorus of cheers at his amazing ability to hit liner after liner. Then, the novelty of it wore off and they took for granted his 200 hits and 100 walks a season and wanted to see something different. I guess it would have been impossible to write another article about his amazing discipline at the plate. So that ability was taken for granted. But, by most accounts, he was a bit of a jerk. And he was the most annoyingly cautious baserunner in the history of MLB. He was like the opposite of what Whitey Herzog wanted to see. Boggs seemed to feel that being thrown out once canceled out 20 instances of being safe when you went for an extra base. But, still, the man was getting on base almost 300 times a year for about 5 years there.

By: metz123

metz123 — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 19:34:43 +0000

oh yeah…btw – Boggs OPS during those years averaged around .900, he averaged 40+ doubles a year, and walked around 100 times a season. Yet, the boston sportswriters never wrote a positive thing about the guy.

By: metz123

metz123 — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 19:27:55 +0000

funny thing is….back when I was more baseball ignorant I used to say the same things about Wade Boggs when he was playing for the Sox. I used to fall for the “arguments” made by sportswriters that….

Boggs hit a lot of home runs in BP, thus he should try to hit more during games.

Boggs was being selfish by getting on base at a .450 clip. He should have been doing “more for the team” and “hitting for more power”.

Boggs needed to “alter his batting strategy based on the game situation” and walk less with runners on base.

Boggs left it to others to pick up the slack because he didn’t “go to right field and move the runner along”.

If you don’t have the tools to analyze the game, you can really fall for these sorts of arguments because they make anecdotal sense. It’s not until you truly grasp the concept that, not making an out is the primary result of any plate appearance, that you start to really appreciate the great hitters. Lucky for me that Rob Neyer, ESPN and the web came along to open my eyes.

Toss in Ichiro’s defense and running skills and he’s truly a superstar. He’ll just never satisfy those that think that only sluggers are superstars.

By: Benne

Benne — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 19:03:41 +0000

Ichiroâ€™s OPS is a joke. We lose so many low scoring games and the only thing this guys does is slap infield hits. For $90 million I think we should expect a player to do some real damage. Not slap infield hits and wait for the next guy to do pick up the slack. Oh wait. Ichiro steals basis when were down or up by several runs. He actually stole a base against the Tigers when in the top of the 6th when were down 8-1 earlier this season. This guy is a farse. Nick Markakis is having a far superior year. He should have been an all star. Letâ€™s get some impact bats!

(points and laughs)

By: joser

joser — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 17:42:00 +0000

Uniqueness doesn’t make you great. Being very good doesn’t make you great. But being very, very good and unique? If it doesn’t make him great, it certainly makes him legendary. Twenty years from now there are going to be a lot of people proudly saying they watched Ichiro play (and a fair number of them probably aren’t watching right now, just like all the “long-time Red Sox fans” who couldn’t tell you anything about any Red Sox team prior to 2004.)

By: andrew23

andrew23 — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 15:02:36 +0000

I think you need to look at RC/27. Ichiro leads off, so he benefits from a lot of extra PAs.

I think the standard is 15 PA for every drop down in the lineup, so if you give a guy who usually hits 3-4-5 an extra 8 years * 15 PA *(2, 3, or 4), there are probably some guys in the 11-20 range that leap ahead of Ichiro.

Might want to take a haircut off that number (10-15%) to account for days off/injury.

Also, I was wondering: do you plan on trying to simulate a season with the 25 man that you create?

By: James T

James T — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 14:46:46 +0000

Of course not, but there are certainly fewer than 35, 61, 78, 59, 40 or 49. Where’s the line? That’s very hard to say, and it’s a subjective judgement.

Again, please don’t infer from my not wanting to put the label of “great” on him that I don’t think he’s a very good player. I’d love for him to be on the Red Sox. I think he’s an all star quality player. But there are, what, 60 all stars? They’re not all great players.