That is comedy.

It’s late, and I’m tired, so I’m going to do this fast with minimal double-checking, but:

wOBA = (0.72 BB + 0.75 HBP + 0.90 1B + 0.92 RBOE + 1.24 2B + 1.56 3B + 1.95 HR) / PA

For Beltre, as of August 19 2008, that comes out to .323, which puts him slightly below AL league average for all hitters (and below Dave’s projection, though it’s worth noting that August historically is his best month, so he could still improve). That’s only works out to about one win’s difference below that projection, though. Then you have to add the positional adjustments and the defensive data, which gets tricky, because you really want to use all the available evaluations and not all of them are free (or available to a cheapskate like me). When projecting Beltre for ’09 Dave used a .5 adjustment (or roughly 5 runs, which seems very conservative), so if we use that we end up with him as about a 1.7 win player — which should be worth about $8.5M on the open market. So, at $12M is he overpaid? Maybe, though the season’s not done yet (pro-rated, the M’s have only paid him for 125/162 = 77% of the season, or $9.25M) and he may yet take things higher. But even if he doesn’t, it’s not at all clear that (a) he isn’t better than I’ve just given him credit for defensively (especially with a groundball-oriented pitchers in the rotation), or (b) that $3.5M is wasted on Beltre when you consider every other rat hole the M’s have stuffed with money this season (Jose Vidro says hello). He was also somewhat underpaid considering his performance in ’06 and ’07, so you can take a life-of-the-contract approach as well. Would I offer him another contract after ’09? Probably not; like a lot of people back in July, I wouldn’t have been afraid to trade him for a reasonable return, and I’d certainly entertain offers this offseason or let him walk after ’09 for the draft picks. But to get back to your question:

“Is 12M a fair price to pay for average hitter who plays great defense at 3rd base?”

The answer is clearly yes. Unfortunately, at the moment, Beltre isn’t quite that player (though he has been the past couple of years).

BTW, Tango suggests that 56% of your payroll should go to the 8 starting fielders, or perhaps a little more. Beltre is getting roughly 10% of the 2008 payroll, so the team couldn’t afford 8 Beltres; but then again, it doesn’t have 8 (and it would be much better if it had another one or two, even if it had to pay for them).

Why would the Beltre signing be anything other than a success, especially compared to the Silva/Washburn/Batista/Sexson/Johjima/Betancourt signings, or, say, the Bedard or Vidro trades?

It seems to me the fact that Adrian Beltre isn’t hitting like it’s 2004 is pretty low on the list of why the Mariners are en route to a disastrous season on August 19, 2008 compared to THOSE signings.

It was amusing to see Lauren Bay take a no hitter into the 5th inning (on tape) while her brother was getting no-hit by the Jays at Fenway (live)

and they are currently throwing her again, to get a chance to advance to the Gold Medal game vs the US

I’d say it matters relatively little. I suppose it could be interpreted as a vindication of how the team used Sherrill when he was here.

I’d say it also underscores the fagilitiy of pitchers in general. But I’m starting to wonder if that entire trade was such an affront to the baseball gods that all the players involved are cursed.