Comments on: The ’09 Staff http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/09/11/the-09-staff/ Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion Thu, 09 Feb 2012 04:59:36 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: party4marty http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/09/11/the-09-staff/comment-page-1/#comment-300082 party4marty Fri, 12 Sep 2008 15:18:20 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6076#comment-300082 I am really happy that you posted this. I was thinking this exact thing on the way to work. Why would we concede 09 when we have one more year of Beltre, Bedard, Wash, Batista, Raul(maybe). It will pretty much be all blown up after next year on its own. Sign 2 expensive 1 year deals for LF and 1B, and see what we can do. then 50m falls off the books for oh ten. And if we suck next year- trade everyone. I am really happy that you posted this. I was thinking this exact thing on the way to work. Why would we concede 09 when we have one more year of Beltre, Bedard, Wash, Batista, Raul(maybe). It will pretty much be all blown up after next year on its own. Sign 2 expensive 1 year deals for LF and 1B, and see what we can do. then 50m falls off the books for oh ten.

And if we suck next year- trade everyone.

]]> By: tetrad http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/09/11/the-09-staff/comment-page-1/#comment-300081 tetrad Fri, 12 Sep 2008 07:40:09 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6076#comment-300081 Thank you for this quick analysis. It is positive news for next year which doesn't hurt a bit. Does anyone have any comments on rumored ownership changes? Thank you for this quick analysis. It is positive news for next year which doesn’t hurt a bit.

Does anyone have any comments on rumored ownership changes?

]]> By: fiftyone http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/09/11/the-09-staff/comment-page-1/#comment-300073 fiftyone Fri, 12 Sep 2008 04:38:07 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6076#comment-300073 Then, all you need is a lineup that looks approximately like this. 1. RF I-chi-ro 2. CF Reed 3. DH Ibanez 4. 3B Beltre 5. 1B Clement 6. 2B Lopez 7. LF .750 OPS with a tiny bit of range 8. C Johjima 9. SS .700 OPS with a non lead-glove Why does this team have to lose 90 games next year? That's preposterous. Then, all you need is a lineup that looks approximately like this.

1. RF I-chi-ro
2. CF Reed
3. DH Ibanez
4. 3B Beltre
5. 1B Clement
6. 2B Lopez
7. LF .750 OPS with a tiny bit of range
8. C Johjima
9. SS .700 OPS with a non lead-glove

Why does this team have to lose 90 games next year? That’s preposterous.

]]> By: fiftyone http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/09/11/the-09-staff/comment-page-1/#comment-300070 fiftyone Fri, 12 Sep 2008 04:34:35 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6076#comment-300070 And if you can get an entire pitching staff to perform at a barely-above-league-average level, with a barely-above-league-average defense behind it, your offense only has to be very slightly above average for you to win 85-90 games again. (And 90-95 wins if one SP overperforms.) And if you can get an entire pitching staff to perform at a barely-above-league-average level, with a barely-above-league-average defense behind it, your offense only has to be very slightly above average for you to win 85-90 games again. (And 90-95 wins if one SP overperforms.)

]]> By: mln http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/09/11/the-09-staff/comment-page-1/#comment-300056 mln Fri, 12 Sep 2008 03:13:15 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6076#comment-300056 I can't wait for next season when the Mariners launch their "We have 7 aces!" marketing campaign. I can’t wait for next season when the Mariners launch their “We have 7 aces!” marketing campaign.

]]> By: JMHawkins http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/09/11/the-09-staff/comment-page-1/#comment-300033 JMHawkins Fri, 12 Sep 2008 00:24:05 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6076#comment-300033 I agree with the skepticsm about Batista. He could well be done and out of baseball next year. But, I don't think that changes Dave's overall projection. A competent GM could replace 100 IP at a low 5's FIP without straining too badly. <em><blockquote> I just worry that a sudden regression to a somewhat league-average rotation is going to convince a new GM that no further changes are necessary to the rotation.</blockquote></em> Further change isn't really <em>needed</em>. I think that's the main point. The M's fixation with upgrading the rotation over the last few years is one of the main things responsible for the mess they're in now. Huge contracts for marginal starters and ruinous trades for mythical aces. And I shouldn't forget an unwillingness to trust "kids" like Baek or RRS with important jobs out of spring training. I agree with the skepticsm about Batista. He could well be done and out of baseball next year. But, I don’t think that changes Dave’s overall projection. A competent GM could replace 100 IP at a low 5′s FIP without straining too badly.


I just worry that a sudden regression to a somewhat league-average rotation is going to convince a new GM that no further changes are necessary to the rotation.

Further change isn’t really needed. I think that’s the main point. The M’s fixation with upgrading the rotation over the last few years is one of the main things responsible for the mess they’re in now. Huge contracts for marginal starters and ruinous trades for mythical aces. And I shouldn’t forget an unwillingness to trust “kids” like Baek or RRS with important jobs out of spring training.

]]> By: Typical Idiot Fan http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/09/11/the-09-staff/comment-page-1/#comment-300031 Typical Idiot Fan Thu, 11 Sep 2008 22:30:44 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6076#comment-300031 <blockquote>7 Batista 100 5.00 </blockquote> <blockquote>With no big additions, no big surges, but just some regression from Silva and Batista (neither are as bad as they’ve been this year)</blockquote> Not sure about Batista. Wouldn't the expectations of going from a 5.98 FIP to a ~5.00 FIP only apply if he was still of major league quality? Except for limited bullpen usage, I haven't seen that from him this season.

7 Batista 100 5.00

With no big additions, no big surges, but just some regression from Silva and Batista (neither are as bad as they’ve been this year)

Not sure about Batista. Wouldn’t the expectations of going from a 5.98 FIP to a ~5.00 FIP only apply if he was still of major league quality? Except for limited bullpen usage, I haven’t seen that from him this season.

]]> By: heyoka http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/09/11/the-09-staff/comment-page-1/#comment-300030 heyoka Thu, 11 Sep 2008 22:19:42 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6076#comment-300030 Concurrence! The staff has upside. I believe Batista could still be a good middle relief option. A healthy 1-2-3 of Felix-Bedard-Morrow may even well provide a .600 ball club IF the offense were average to above average. Supposing Raul were retained as DH (just an arbitrary assumption), upgrades could be found at 1B and LF, right? Wouldn't two decent MLB bats make a profound impact on the offense? You turn some minuses into pluses; maybe some guys that don't ground out on the first pitch might work into some bullpens and make this offense above average... How much better might Ichiro or Beltre hit had they not had to face starters who had just blown through the lineup on 20 pitches? Concurrence!

The staff has upside. I believe Batista could still be a good middle relief option. A healthy 1-2-3 of Felix-Bedard-Morrow may even well provide a .600 ball club IF the offense were average to above average. Supposing Raul were retained as DH (just an arbitrary assumption), upgrades could be found at 1B and LF, right? Wouldn’t two decent MLB bats make a profound impact on the offense? You turn some minuses into pluses; maybe some guys that don’t ground out on the first pitch might work into some bullpens and make this offense above average…

How much better might Ichiro or Beltre hit had they not had to face starters who had just blown through the lineup on 20 pitches?

]]> By: Paul B http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/09/11/the-09-staff/comment-page-1/#comment-300029 Paul B Thu, 11 Sep 2008 21:53:01 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6076#comment-300029 It won't change the overall conclusion, but I think a 5 FIP for Batista is being overly optimistic. It wouldn't surprise me if he was out of baseball by the end of next season. He's shown an increase in walks and homers this year (in addition to general suckiness), and he is 37 years old. He might be near the end of the line. If he does end up throwing 100 innings for the M's next year, that could be a real bad sign. It won’t change the overall conclusion, but I think a 5 FIP for Batista is being overly optimistic. It wouldn’t surprise me if he was out of baseball by the end of next season. He’s shown an increase in walks and homers this year (in addition to general suckiness), and he is 37 years old. He might be near the end of the line.

If he does end up throwing 100 innings for the M’s next year, that could be a real bad sign.

]]> By: Shizane http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/09/11/the-09-staff/comment-page-1/#comment-300028 Shizane Thu, 11 Sep 2008 21:38:43 +0000 http://ussmariner.com/?p=6076#comment-300028 Why no Eric O'Flaherty? What's his status? Why no Eric O’Flaherty? What’s his status?

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