Feb. 8 • Seattle Lands Bedard, Third Ace To Switch Teams This Winter

Acquire:
LHP Erik Bedard,

Baltimore Acquire:
OF Adam Jones, Seattle
LHP George Sherrill, Seattle
RHP Chris Tillman, High Desert (Hi A)
RHP Kam Mickolio, Tacoma (AAA)
LHP Tony Butler, Wisconsin (Lo A)

From the Hale’s perspective, Bedard, Yuni, Washburn, etc are all probably going to be on the roster next year and he’ll have to worry about dealing with them on a daily basis. So why throw either under the bus before he’s even hired, or provide a beat writer with a quote that’s going to make the front page?

In terms of value added to the Mariners franchise over the next six years, it’s not even close. Jones blows Bedard out of the water even in a scenario where Bedard is projected to be the significantly better player (I’ve got the total wins added from ‘08-’13 at 17 for Jones and 26 for Bedard). Even if you only look at the next two years, Jones is expected to outvalue Bedard $22.75 million to $21.5 million.

Even if Adam Jones was a free agent after 2009, given their respective abilities and salaries, I wouldn’t trade Adam Jones for Erik Bedard straight up. The fact that the Mariners then control Jones from 2010 to 2013 makes this an obviously horrible trade.

I’m all for acquiring Erik Bedard, and I’d give up practically the whole farm system to get him. But Adam Jones is the kind of player that good organizations just don’t trade. He’s one of the most valuable players in the game, and by himself, more valuable to the club than Erik Bedard.

Regarding Chip Hale. I think it’s likely that Hale doesn’t have detailed knowledge of Jones. He certainly knows Jones as a valuable prospect, but not as the elite prospect that some one in a scouting role would be expected to know. He might logically consider Jones to be about the type of player that would be swapped for a starter of Bedard’s caliber. If so, it’s not unreasonable if he would consider that as a valid trade.

Even Dave in the quote above said he would give up practically the whole farm system for Bedard, as long Jones wasn’t included. So if Hale doesn’t know Jones as an ultra-elite prospect then his comments make perfect sense.

In terms of real value, the M’s probably punted about $50 million or so.

Surely there have been worse transactions, by the M’s and by other teams, than overpaying by $1 to $2M. The Dodgers alone e.g., paying $8M for Juan Pierre and $9.5M for Nomar.

Except the Dodgers didn’t also pay a cost of five talented young ballplayers in addition to the excessive cash values.

…the Mariners were adding about 1 win to the ‘08 team, and doing so at a cost of about $6 million to the payroll.

You can buy one win in free agency for between $4 to $5 million.

[...]

you’re forced to conclude that this trade was the definition of idiotic.

While I agree that the Bedard trade was bad from the get-go, to call it “idiotic” seems way over the top. Dave’s own figures say that the M’s acquired one more (prospective)victory, at a cost of $6M, when they could’ve gotten that victory for $4 or $5M.

Surely there have been worse transactions, by the M’s and by other teams, than overpaying by $1 to $2M. The Dodgers alone e.g., paying $8M for Juan Pierre and $9.5M for Nomar.

Overpaying by $2M, while certainly undesireable, is such a common thing that we’d have to call most of the teams idiots.

I just returned from the season ticket holder luncheon with Dave Niehaus and Jack Zduriencik. [...]
Has anyone else heard anything about the new “Department of Baseball Research?”

Thanks for the report, that’s very intriguing. As with everything else, it’s still early so who knows what this Dept. of Baseball Research will amount to, but it’s positive news and something that I hope this blog and the Seattle media can keep us informed about.