SI “Winners and Losers in Las Vegas”

(1) Matt Diaz, Braves – UZR/150 of 17.2 in 2006 and 18.8 in 2007, and he was +12 plus/minus both seasons. I thought he would be a terrible defender until I looked it up because I thought I read that about him somewhere. Not so much.

Offensively, he hits lots of hard line drives. Most people seem to think of him as a platoon guy who doesn’t hit righties enough to justify a full-time gig, but I’m not so sure. Small sample size alert and all, but in 2006 he hit .358/.400/.477 against righties and in 2007 he hit .318/.350/.406. He isn’t a power hitter by any means and his numbers were inflated some by BABIPs of .373 in 2006 and .385 in 2007, but he also hits lots of hard line drives and is probably one of those guys that can be expected to sustain consistently high BABIPs.

Last year he started slow and then blew out his knee, but he should be healthy in 2009 and might come cheap since he seems to have fallen out of favor in Atlanta and is arbitration eligible. wOBA of .354 and .373 in 2006 and 2007 before last year’s injury problems. Bill James (.354) and Marcel (.334) expect some rebound in 2009, and I think .350 is a better number if he is fully healthy. .350 wOBA over 525 PA makes him about +8 runs offensively.

His skill set (plus defense, plus contact, minus power skills) is under-appreciated by almost everyone for a corner outfielder. The fact that his OBP is built on hard contact, rather than walks is also under-appreciated in stat and scout communities. Might be worth seeing if he could be taken from the Braves for a song-and-dance since he is arbitration eligible and they seem down on him.

Upside: +5 offense, +10 defense, +20 replacement level: +3.5 wins

Again, I really think he could be had fairly cheaply. The Braves never seemed very enamored with him and only begrudgingly made him a full-timer last year (when he crashed, burned, then hurt his knee).

(2) Luke Scott, Orioles – I am an Astros/Mariners fan and was pissed when he was thrown into the Tejada trade. I repeatedly read about how the Astros’ front office didn’t like his defense. Career 9.9 UZR/150 in LF and 9.0 in RF. He scores similarly on plus/minus.

Career wOBA of .361 makes him +14 runs offensively over 550 PA. He’s a lot stronger against RHP, but he is not so horrendous against LHP (.236/.340/.421) that a platoonmate is needed every single time a LHP is on the mound.

Upside: +12 offense, +8 defense, +20 replacement level: +4 wins.

The Orioles probably like Scott well enough, but if anyone values him as a +4 win player, I’d be surprised. I think he could be had for much less, particularly if a Teixeira signing pushes Huff off 1B.

(3) Matt Murton, A’s – this guy pissed off the baseball gods somehow. Career UZR/150 of 11.3 in LF and career .345 wOBA. Another guys that should be +3 wins or so utilized on an everyday basis.

(4) Austin Kearns, Nats – basically a RF version of Murton who has a hefty salary. Career 8.1 UZR/150 in RF and career .345 wOBA makes him a +2.5 win guy. Coming off an injury lowers his price and the Nats might give him up in a salary dump with such a crowded OF. Or maybe swap bad salaries and ship Batista for Kearns.

I think the M’s would be smart to make inquiries on all 4. All 4 could improve the 2009 team by a couple wins while costing much less. I would be surprised if all 4 of these guys are properly valued by their teams and at least one of them should be availble cheap. My personal favorite is Diaz since I really think the Braves are down on him, especially with his injury and being arbitration-eligible.

Is there some reason, at this point, one wouldn’t DH Wlad and put Chavez in left?

Only that we could do better, at both positions, than Wlad and Chavez. I don’t think Endy has the bat to hold down the job, and Wlad’s value is also hurt by taking him out of the field. Given that Wlad is a RH pull hitter, and still learning, his offense isn’t ideal at the DH. I think giving Griffey (or someone similar, though no names come to mind) a one-year contract to DH, keep Wlad in LF, and work Endy as a fourth outfielder would be a more effective arrangement all around.

As the OF goes, right now, I’m thinking we’re looking at a complex platoon in LF/CF, with Chavez playing LF when we have a pitch-to-flyball guy on the mound and CF for Gootz against tough RHP. (In cases where both are true, obviously, you pick one or the other, depending on how much you trust Wlad’s glove.)

Let’s get Griffey to give us a hometown discount to DH

Griffey will not make the Mariners better in 2009.

I’m heartened, too, but let’s not get carried away. The Angels are a very good team. And the A’s are getting better. Another offseason like this one is shaping up to be, though, and….

Let’s get Griffey to give us a hometown discount to DH

His hometown is now Orlando; the only discount he might be giving out is to the Rays. And I thought you wanted the M’s to have a shot at winning the West in ’09? But what the hell: if everything else falls through, ok, 2009 is a lost year anyway so let’s get the guy on a one-year deal just so all the nostalgiaddicts will finally shut up. OK?

The more I think of this–this is no slight on JJ–I think the Met’s overspent for an 8th inning reliever.They just spent a king’s ransom on a closer. I don’t know if they needed JJ.

I have been coming to this conclusion as well — that the Mets are really overcompensating for their late-season chokes the past couple of years. If they hadn’t already spent the big bucks for K-Rod, this would be a good trade for them. But in the wake of that, it’s gilding the lily more than a little. Granted, they’re a big market team just about to move into a new stadium, so — even in the current economic climate — they can afford to overspend. But even Bavasi demonstrated you don’t have to dump big bucks into the bullpen. Paying major FA dollars and trading away a bunch of players and prospects just to get two innings of work in some of your games smacks of desperation. Obviously in that media environment Minaya had to do something or he’d be worried about his job. But this just seems like too much.

As a Phillies fan I am NOT happy with this trade, good as it is for the M’s!

I have nothing against the city of Philadelphia (though it now goes into the STFU pile atop Boston and a few other homes of formerly woebegone fanbases) but I have to say anything that makes Gillick’s life a little harder makes me smile. But having the reigning WS champions in their own division had to be weighing on the Mets too.