Comments on: Another Awesome New Stat Site

By: DIPLOMATIC SHARK

DIPLOMATIC SHARK — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 07:37:56 +0000

It's his system; you'd think he'd project himself better.

By: scottiedawg

scottiedawg — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 06:23:27 +0000

I love the percentiles on the CHONE site. I can get a feel for a range of projections.

By: Dave

Dave — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 01:57:43 +0000

The projection system doesn’t think Felix will only throw 100 innings at age 28. It thinks there’s a pretty good chance that he’ll throw 0 (think Mark Prior), a decent chance he’ll throw 25-50 (Mark Mulder), some chance he’ll throw 75-150, and a decent chance he’ll throw 180 plus. Then, it just weights all those chances together and displays the mean.

The system isn’t saying that Felix will throw 100 innings at age 28. It’s saying the sum of all probable outcomes is 100 innings.

By: skyking162

skyking162 — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 01:47:17 +0000

Injury concerns and loss of skill are why Felix’s IP projection slowly decreases. You’ll find that for everyone.

Try this: go back 8 years and find all pitchers with 180ish IP for 2 or 3 years in a row. Find their average number of innings each year down the road. Feel free to take only pitchers that are relatively young. The projection system is being properly conservative.

Although, you won’t find many as young as Felix.

By: Breadbaker

Breadbaker — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 01:19:29 +0000

I’m confused by the pitcher projections. He has Felix down to about 100 K’s a season by age 28. I don’t get that, and I don’t see the historical justification for it, either.

By: galaxieboi

galaxieboi — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 22:53:37 +0000

You could email Sean and ask him.

By: TCW

TCW — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 22:43:34 +0000

Baldelli's page. With that and this info, I really hope the M's take a good look at signing him. I agree with BB&T's assessment in the link above:

I thought that Baldelli would be a low-risk, medium reward signing; but now he looks like a possible low risk, high reward guy.

By: TrevorB

TrevorB — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 22:15:31 +0000

Sweet site. Can anyone explain why the 6 year projection for Felix has his innings decreasing each year? It has him throwing 109 innings in the 2014 season, he’ll only be 28 years old. I’m just curious that’s all. Thanks.

By: galaxieboi

galaxieboi — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 21:54:20 +0000

Hey, it's WFB's page!

By: JI

JI — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 21:24:32 +0000

I know what I’m doing for the rest of the week.