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	<title>Comments on: A Theoretical Roster</title>
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	<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/12/31/a-theoretical-roster/</link>
	<description>Seattle Mariners blog and general baseball discussion</description>
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		<title>By: BobbyAyalaFan4Life</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/12/31/a-theoretical-roster/comment-page-1/#comment-308543</link>
		<dc:creator>BobbyAyalaFan4Life</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Jan 2009 20:53:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6969#comment-308543</guid>
		<description>I&#039;ve read Passan for a little bit every now and then (when a headline grabs my attention on Yahoo) and his stories are always either what&#039;s percieved to be the prevailing opinion (hence a lot of bias in terms of east coast-west coast), something he didn&#039;t actually break (retreads), or based on poor assumptions stemming from limited resources (read: lazy). This is certainly another in that long line.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve read Passan for a little bit every now and then (when a headline grabs my attention on Yahoo) and his stories are always either what&#8217;s percieved to be the prevailing opinion (hence a lot of bias in terms of east coast-west coast), something he didn&#8217;t actually break (retreads), or based on poor assumptions stemming from limited resources (read: lazy). This is certainly another in that long line.</p>
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		<title>By: joser</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/12/31/a-theoretical-roster/comment-page-1/#comment-308540</link>
		<dc:creator>joser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Jan 2009 20:42:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6969#comment-308540</guid>
		<description>I was going to go get the link for that yahoo story, but anything that lumps Ichiro and Beltre in with Silva, Washburn, Batista and Johjima as &quot;slop&quot; simply doesn&#039;t deserve the favor
&lt;blockquote&gt;
The Mariners rake in revenue and can sustain nine-figure payrolls without much strain.

Problem is, when so much of it is devoted to slop â€“ Ichiro, Adrian Beltre, Silva, Washburn, Batista and Johjima will make a combined $67.35 million this season â€“ it handcuffs Zduriencik. 
&lt;/blockquote&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was going to go get the link for that yahoo story, but anything that lumps Ichiro and Beltre in with Silva, Washburn, Batista and Johjima as &#8220;slop&#8221; simply doesn&#8217;t deserve the favor</p>
<blockquote><p>
The Mariners rake in revenue and can sustain nine-figure payrolls without much strain.</p>
<p>Problem is, when so much of it is devoted to slop â€“ Ichiro, Adrian Beltre, Silva, Washburn, Batista and Johjima will make a combined $67.35 million this season â€“ it handcuffs Zduriencik.
</p></blockquote>
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		<title>By: CMC_Stags</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/12/31/a-theoretical-roster/comment-page-1/#comment-308530</link>
		<dc:creator>CMC_Stags</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Jan 2009 16:33:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6969#comment-308530</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;But maybe big Z knows something we donâ€™t?&lt;/blockquote&gt;

I&#039;m hoping that Z is just waiting for the rest of the teams to fill their LF and DH slots and see who is left in the cold of the Dunn, Ramirez, Burrell, and Abreau camp and then get them for a cheap 1 or 2 year deal.

&lt;blockquote&gt;2. SS and 2B makeover. While Amezaga gives us some quality IF fielding, the problem is pretty deep with both Betancourt and Lopez needing to be replaced.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

I agree with you on Yuni.  He&#039;s well below average defensively as a SS while being below average offensively as well.  While a move to 2B would make him look better defensively versus his new peer group, he still doesn&#039;t hit enough.  He&#039;s also probably finished maturing as a player and what we now see is what we&#039;re likely to keep seeing for the next few years.  He turns 27 this month.

On the other hand, Jose is fine.  He&#039;s at or just below league average with the glove while being a league average or above hitter.  He&#039;s also just turned 25 last month.  For perspective:

Jose Lopez is...
95 days younger than Jeff Clement
125 days younger than Rob Johnson
269 days younger than Tug Hulett
276 days younger than Franklin Gutierrez

I think most people here think that all of the above players still have room to grow and improve as players as they are still young.  Why don&#039;t we afford Jose the same growth potential?

Also, though I know it&#039;s &lt;a href=&quot;http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l135&amp;t=t_ibp&amp;cid=693&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Winter League&lt;/a&gt;, Jose is tearing it up, .349/.427/.596 with 13 Walks to 12 Ks.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>But maybe big Z knows something we donâ€™t?</p></blockquote>
<p>I&#8217;m hoping that Z is just waiting for the rest of the teams to fill their LF and DH slots and see who is left in the cold of the Dunn, Ramirez, Burrell, and Abreau camp and then get them for a cheap 1 or 2 year deal.</p>
<blockquote><p>2. SS and 2B makeover. While Amezaga gives us some quality IF fielding, the problem is pretty deep with both Betancourt and Lopez needing to be replaced.</p></blockquote>
<p>I agree with you on Yuni.  He&#8217;s well below average defensively as a SS while being below average offensively as well.  While a move to 2B would make him look better defensively versus his new peer group, he still doesn&#8217;t hit enough.  He&#8217;s also probably finished maturing as a player and what we now see is what we&#8217;re likely to keep seeing for the next few years.  He turns 27 this month.</p>
<p>On the other hand, Jose is fine.  He&#8217;s at or just below league average with the glove while being a league average or above hitter.  He&#8217;s also just turned 25 last month.  For perspective:</p>
<p>Jose Lopez is&#8230;<br />
95 days younger than Jeff Clement<br />
125 days younger than Rob Johnson<br />
269 days younger than Tug Hulett<br />
276 days younger than Franklin Gutierrez</p>
<p>I think most people here think that all of the above players still have room to grow and improve as players as they are still young.  Why don&#8217;t we afford Jose the same growth potential?</p>
<p>Also, though I know it&#8217;s <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l135&amp;t=t_ibp&amp;cid=693" rel="nofollow">Winter League</a>, Jose is tearing it up, .349/.427/.596 with 13 Walks to 12 Ks.</p>
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		<title>By: bongo</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/12/31/a-theoretical-roster/comment-page-1/#comment-308524</link>
		<dc:creator>bongo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Jan 2009 06:17:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6969#comment-308524</guid>
		<description>Some issues with the list:

1. There are 17 names on it.   Assuming a 12 man pitching staff, that leaves room for only 13.  So 4 names have to go.  Hulett and Burke seem most likely to start the season in Tacoma.  If you add Johnson, then Shelton seems destined for Tacoma, since otherwise you&#039;d have 3 first basemen (4 if you count Lopez). Similarly, if you add Amezaga, then either Balentien or Morse probably won&#039;t be on the roster.

2. SS and 2B makeover.  While Amezaga gives us some quality IF fielding, the problem is pretty deep with both Betancourt and Lopez needing to be replaced.   Adding yet another first baseman makes the position crowded even if Shelton does start in Tacoma.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Some issues with the list:</p>
<p>1. There are 17 names on it.   Assuming a 12 man pitching staff, that leaves room for only 13.  So 4 names have to go.  Hulett and Burke seem most likely to start the season in Tacoma.  If you add Johnson, then Shelton seems destined for Tacoma, since otherwise you&#8217;d have 3 first basemen (4 if you count Lopez). Similarly, if you add Amezaga, then either Balentien or Morse probably won&#8217;t be on the roster.</p>
<p>2. SS and 2B makeover.  While Amezaga gives us some quality IF fielding, the problem is pretty deep with both Betancourt and Lopez needing to be replaced.   Adding yet another first baseman makes the position crowded even if Shelton does start in Tacoma.</p>
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		<title>By: joser</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/12/31/a-theoretical-roster/comment-page-1/#comment-308511</link>
		<dc:creator>joser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2009 22:41:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6969#comment-308511</guid>
		<description>Maybe Bradley has a bit of the Raul in him, and wants to play for a team that will give him more than 20 starts in the field, rather than becoming a full-time DH.

In any case, how do we know what the M&#039;s are or are not interested in?  The lack of rumors doesn&#039;t mean anything, since the national press is all agog at the Yankees and the local press has other things to do.  Plus it&#039;s the holidays and bowl week and all that.  This time a year a lot of front offices are like ducks in a current, not appearing to be doing much on the surface but paddling like crazy underneath (and often not getting anywhere).

Of course, that&#039;s a great reason to go to the USSM event in a couple of weeks.  I wouldn&#039;t expect to get a question about a particular FA answered directly (unless he&#039;s signed by then) but I&#039;d hope we&#039;d get a pretty good sense of the philosophy the FO is using to (re)build the team -- from which we can infer which players they might be more or less interested in going forward.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Maybe Bradley has a bit of the Raul in him, and wants to play for a team that will give him more than 20 starts in the field, rather than becoming a full-time DH.</p>
<p>In any case, how do we know what the M&#8217;s are or are not interested in?  The lack of rumors doesn&#8217;t mean anything, since the national press is all agog at the Yankees and the local press has other things to do.  Plus it&#8217;s the holidays and bowl week and all that.  This time a year a lot of front offices are like ducks in a current, not appearing to be doing much on the surface but paddling like crazy underneath (and often not getting anywhere).</p>
<p>Of course, that&#8217;s a great reason to go to the USSM event in a couple of weeks.  I wouldn&#8217;t expect to get a question about a particular FA answered directly (unless he&#8217;s signed by then) but I&#8217;d hope we&#8217;d get a pretty good sense of the philosophy the FO is using to (re)build the team &#8212; from which we can infer which players they might be more or less interested in going forward.</p>
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		<title>By: killer_ewok18</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/12/31/a-theoretical-roster/comment-page-1/#comment-308508</link>
		<dc:creator>killer_ewok18</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2009 21:39:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6969#comment-308508</guid>
		<description>What frustrated me is that the M&#039;s don&#039;t appear to be interested in Bradley at all. All he is asking for is 3 years, 30 million. That seems pretty reasonable to me, even with his injury history. Slot him in at DH and we have ourselves a pretty decent team with a decent shot at stealing the division.

But maybe big Z knows something we don&#039;t?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What frustrated me is that the M&#8217;s don&#8217;t appear to be interested in Bradley at all. All he is asking for is 3 years, 30 million. That seems pretty reasonable to me, even with his injury history. Slot him in at DH and we have ourselves a pretty decent team with a decent shot at stealing the division.</p>
<p>But maybe big Z knows something we don&#8217;t?</p>
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		<title>By: joser</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/12/31/a-theoretical-roster/comment-page-1/#comment-308506</link>
		<dc:creator>joser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2009 19:52:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6969#comment-308506</guid>
		<description>IIRC Chone has never been especially kind to Ichiro. &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1101&amp;position=OF&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Other projections&lt;/a&gt; are more optimistic: Bill James has him at .320 / .368 / .402 for 1.2 RAA; Marcel is lower but still her than Chone at .310 / .361 / .397 for 0.6 RAA

It would be a fun little exercise to build the same roster using the other projection methods to see how it turns out.

Actually, that would be a really cool feature for Fangraphs: the Rosterbation page, where you pick players to fill out the positions on a team and it does the rest of the calculations for you.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>IIRC Chone has never been especially kind to Ichiro. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1101&amp;position=OF" rel="nofollow">Other projections</a> are more optimistic: Bill James has him at .320 / .368 / .402 for 1.2 RAA; Marcel is lower but still her than Chone at .310 / .361 / .397 for 0.6 RAA</p>
<p>It would be a fun little exercise to build the same roster using the other projection methods to see how it turns out.</p>
<p>Actually, that would be a really cool feature for Fangraphs: the Rosterbation page, where you pick players to fill out the positions on a team and it does the rest of the calculations for you.</p>
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		<title>By: Philly M's fan</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/12/31/a-theoretical-roster/comment-page-1/#comment-308505</link>
		<dc:creator>Philly M's fan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2009 19:00:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6969#comment-308505</guid>
		<description>Isn&#039;t Ichiro&#039;s BA a little low for this season&#039;s projection? The lowest he ever hit was .303 2 years ago, and hit .310 last year. His career BA is .331, which i think would be closer to this season&#039;s projection.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Isn&#8217;t Ichiro&#8217;s BA a little low for this season&#8217;s projection? The lowest he ever hit was .303 2 years ago, and hit .310 last year. His career BA is .331, which i think would be closer to this season&#8217;s projection.</p>
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		<title>By: bookbook</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/12/31/a-theoretical-roster/comment-page-1/#comment-308504</link>
		<dc:creator>bookbook</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2009 14:58:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6969#comment-308504</guid>
		<description>I can&#039;t let this thread pass without mentioning possibly the biggest gamble we could take to jump into the fray in 2009.

Sign Barry Bonds. Heck, I bet he&#039;d take an NRI at this point. We have a DH slot for him.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I can&#8217;t let this thread pass without mentioning possibly the biggest gamble we could take to jump into the fray in 2009.</p>
<p>Sign Barry Bonds. Heck, I bet he&#8217;d take an NRI at this point. We have a DH slot for him.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul B</title>
		<link>http://www.ussmariner.com/2008/12/31/a-theoretical-roster/comment-page-1/#comment-308503</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul B</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2009 04:03:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6969#comment-308503</guid>
		<description>Question, what makes Alfredo Amezaga worth so much, when the M&#039;s already have Tug Hulett?  Offensively, they are about a wash.  I guess it must be fielding at SS?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Question, what makes Alfredo Amezaga worth so much, when the M&#8217;s already have Tug Hulett?  Offensively, they are about a wash.  I guess it must be fielding at SS?</p>
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